Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.     

Bridge officers’ non-technical skills: a literature review

The present review examines the research literature on Non-Technical Skills (NTS) used by ships’ bridge officers in connection with navigation. The aim of the study was to (i) identify the cognitive and interpersonal skills which have been the focus of previous studies and (ii) explore how the content of these skills has been described. Databases searched included Academic Search Premier, PsycINFO, Science Direct, and Web of Science. Nineteen studies were included in the review. Five NTS were identified: situation awareness (SA), decision-making (DM), workload management (WM), communication, and leadership. In addition to discussing each skill, the review raises four overarching issues with the present literature for the bridge domain: (1) Have all the relevant skills been subject to exploration? (2) Have the skills identified been explored in detail? (3) There seems to be an uneven distribution of research between cognitive and interpersonal skills. (4) There is little research into understanding the skills as a complete taxonomy. Knowledge on how the skills are linked and interplay with one another is incomplete. Overall, further research on all these aspects of NTS in the maritime domain could increase scientific understanding and contribute to bridge operational practice and to the further development and evaluation of NTS training such as Bridge Resource Management (BRM).     

Automatic outer surface extraction of femoral head in CT images

Computer-aided hip surgery planning and implant design applications require accurate segmentation of femoral head and proximal acetabulum. An accurate outer surface extraction of femoral head using marching cubes algorithm remains challenging due to deformed shapes and extremely narrow inter-bone regions. In this paper, we present an automatic and fast approach for segmentation of femoral head and proximal acetabulum which leads to accurate and compact representation of femoral head using marching cubes algorithm. At first, valley-emphasized images are constructed from original images so that valleys stand out in high relief. Otsu’s multiple thresholding technique is applied to seperate the images into bone and non-bone classes. Region growing method and threedimensional (3D) morphological operations are performed to fill holes in the bone. In the reclassification process, the bone regions are further segmented, and the boundaries of the bone regions are further refined based on Bayes decision rule. Finally, marching cubes algorithm is applied to reconstruct a 3D model and extract the outer surface of femoral head and proximal acetabulum. Experimental results show that this method is an accurate segmentation technique for femoral head and proximal acetabulum and it can be applied as a tool in medical practice.     

Comparison on travel scheduling between driving and walking trips by habitual car users

Research on walking behavior has become increasingly more important in the field of transportation in the past decades. However, the study of the factors influencing the scheduling decisions related to walking trips and the exploration of the differences between travel modes has not been conducted yet. This paper presents a comparison of the scheduling and rescheduling decisions associated with car driving trips and walking trips by habitual car users using a data set collected in Valencia (Spain) in 2010. Bivariate probit models with sample selection are used to accommodate the influence of pre-planning on the decision to execute a travel as pre-planned or not. The explicative variables considered are: socio-economic characteristics of respondents, travel characteristics, and facets of the activity executed at origin and at destination including the scheduling decisions associated with them. The results demonstrate that a significant correlation exists between the choices of pre-planning and rescheduling for both types of trips. Whether for car driving or walking trips, the scheduling decisions associated with the activity at origin and at destination are the most important explicative factors of the trip scheduling and rescheduling decisions. However, the rescheduling of trips is mainly influenced by modifications in the activity at destination. Some interesting differences arise regarding the rescheduling decision processes between travel modes: if pre-planned, walking trips are less likely to be modified than car driving trips, showing a more rigid rescheduling behavior.     

Hybrid process of fabricating high-quality micro wine-glass fused silica resonators

A new hybrid method, which combines improved glass-blown technology with wet etching, is reported to fabricate micro wine-glass resonators with high-quality fused silica. The optimum placement is compared to achieve the resonators with good shell shape. The typical shell diameter is about 4mm and its thickness covers from dozens to hundreds of micrometers. The etching rates in corrosion solutions with different ratios and at different thicknesses of hemispherical shells are studied. We also conclude how to precisely control the thickness. The corrosion solutions with different ratios of HF solution to NH₄F solution make the spherical shells rougher in different degrees. The best roughness is 0.581 nm in the 1: 8 ratio corrosion solution while the original roughness is 0.537 nm. This fact shows that the resonator remains atomically smooth surface. Based on the glassblowing spherical fused silica structure, the thickness of the resonator is effectively controlled by buffered oxide etch (BOE) technology according to the measured etching rate. The measured resonant frequency of the hemispherical shell at ambient pressure and room temperature is 1.75 kHz of rocking mode which is close to the simulated frequency. Using such a low-cost hybrid approach, we can fabricate high-quality microscale resonators in batch.     

Approximate method for reliability assessment of complex phased mission systems

Phased-mission systems (PMSs) have wide applications in engineering practices, such as manmade satellites. Certain critical parts in the system, such as cold standby, hot standby and functional standby, are designed in redundancy architecture to achieve high reliability performance. State-space models such as Markov process have been used extensively in previous studies for reliability evaluation of PMSs with dynamic behaviors. The most popular way to deal with the dynamic behaviors is Markov process, but it is well known that Markov process is limited to exponential distribution. In practice, however, the lifetime of most machinery products can follow non-exponential distributions like the Weibull distribution which cannot be handled by the Markov process. In order to solve this kind of problem, we present a semi-Markov model combined with an approximation algorithm to analyze PMS reliability subjected to non-exponential failures. Furthermore, the accuracy of the approximation algorithm is investigated by comparing to an accurate solution, and a typical PMS (attitude and orbit control system) is analyzed to demonstrate the implementation of the method.     

Impacts of urban built environment on empty taxi trips using limited geolocation data

This study identifies the determinants of the empty taxi trip duration (ETTD) by combining three high-resolution databases—geolocation data in New York City, geodatabase of urban planning data, and transportation facilities data. Considering the nature of duration data, hazard-based duration model is proposed to explore the relationships between causal factors and ETTD, coupling with three variations of baseline hazard distribution, i.e., Weibull distribution with heterogeneity, Weibull distribution, and log-logistic. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test is presented to implement comparisons of three baseline hazard distributions, as well as spatial and temporal transferability of causal factors. The results show significant complementary effects by subway system and competitive effects by city bus and bicycling system, as well as significant impacts of trip length, airport trip, average annual income, and employment rate. Urban built environment, for instance, density of road, public facilities, and recreational sites and ratio of green space, has various impacts on ETTD. The elasticity estimations confirm significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in impacts on ETTD. In addition, the analysis on elasticity also reveals the considerable impacts of severe traffic congestion on ETTD within Manhattan. The modeling can assist stakeholders in understanding empty taxi movements and measuring taxi system efficiency in urban areas.     

Techno-economic study of LNG diesel power (dual fuel) ship

This article mainly proposed three technically effective alternatives to comply with the emission control regulations and laws in shipping. Liquefied natural gas (LNG)-diesel dual fuel power technology was introduced through feasibility study on several aspects including research development, retrofitting methods, vessel type, safety issues, and other technical characteristics. Based on sample ship and route, economic evaluation was conducted on these three alternatives. Cost-effectiveness of each project was detailed in the calculation of net present value (NPV) and payback time via discount cash flow method. The findings show that LNG-diesel dual fuel power technology performs best among three alternatives. Due to the impact of fuel price, two scenarios were carried out in sensitivity analysis which witnessed a variation of NPV with the fluctuation of fuel price. Further study shows the turning point between project (i) and project (iii) with different discount rate and the interaction between discount rate and fuel price, left project (ii) the least cost-effective solution in three alternatives.     

Response-based analysis for Tension Leg Platform

The typical industry practice for Tension Leg Platform (TLP) design focuses on a conventional short-term design recipe, which assumes that an N-year design environment leads to an N-year response. In the response-based design method, the TLP is designed to withstand N-year responses rather than respond to N-year environmental conditions. In this paper, we present an overview and a general procedure for the response-based design method and use a case study to compare the critical TLP responses between the two methods. The results of our comparison show that the conventional short-term design method often contains an element of conservatism and that the response-based design method can reduce the design conditions and thereby achieve cost savings.     

Reliability Modeling and Maintenance Policy Optimization for Deteriorating System Under Random Shock

Performance degradation and random shock are commonly regarded as two dependent competing risks for system failures. One method based on effective service age is proposed to jointly model the cumulative effect of random shock and system degradation, and the reliability model of degradation system under Nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) shocks is derived. Under the assumption that preventive maintenance (PM) is imperfective and the corrective maintenance (CM) is minimal repair, one maintenance policy which combines PM and CM is presented. Moreover, the two decision variables, PM interval and the number of PMs before replacement, are determined by a multi-objective maintenance optimization method which simultaneously maximizes the system availability and minimizes the system long-run expect cost rate. Finally, the performance of the proposed maintenance optimization policy is demonstrated via a numerical example.