Fueling for contingencies: The hidden cost of unpredictability in the air transportation system

The aviation community is increasing its attention on the concept of predictability when conducting aviation service quality assessments. Reduced fuel consumption and the related cost is one of the various benefits that could be achieved through improved flight predictability. A lack of predictability may cause airline dispatchers to load more fuel onto aircraft before they depart; the flights would then in turn consume extra fuel just to carry excess fuel loaded. In this study, we employ a large dataset with flight-level fuel loading and consumption information from a major US airline. With these data, we estimate the relationship between the amount of loaded fuel and flight predictability performance using a statistical model. The impact of loaded fuel is translated into fuel consumption and, ultimately, fuel cost and environmental impact for US domestic operations. We find that a one-minute increase in the standard deviation of airborne time leads to a 0.88 min increase in loaded contingency fuel and 1.66 min in loaded contingency and alternate fuel. If there were no unpredictability in the aviation system, captured in our model by eliminating standard deviation in flight time, the reduction in the loaded fuel would between 6.12 and 11.28 min per flight. Given a range of fuel prices, this ultimately would translate into cost savings for US domestic airlines on the order of $120–$452 million per year.     

Can we reliably assess climate mitigation options for air traffic scenarios despite large uncertainties in atmospheric processes?

Air traffic has an increasing influence on climate; therefore identifying mitigation options to reduce the climate impact of aviation becomes more and more important. Aviation influences climate through several climate agents, which show different dependencies on the magnitude and location of emission and the spatial and temporal impacts. Even counteracting effects can occur. Therefore, it is important to analyse all effects with high accuracy to identify mitigation potentials. However, the uncertainties in calculating the climate impact of aviation are partly large (up to a factor of about 2). In this study, we present a methodology, based on a Monte Carlo simulation of an updated non-linear climate-chemistry response model AirClim, to integrate above mentioned uncertainties in the climate assessment of mitigation options. Since mitigation options often represent small changes in emissions, we concentrate on a more generalised approach and use exemplarily different normalised global air traffic inventories to test the methodology. These inventories are identical in total emissions but differ in the spatial emission distribution. We show that using the Monte Carlo simulation and analysing relative differences between scenarios lead to a reliable assessment of mitigation potentials. In a use case we show that the presented methodology can be used to analyse even small differences between scenarios with mean flight altitude variations.     

Traffic and emissions impact of congestion charging in the central Beijing urban area: A simulation analysis

Congestion charging is being considered as a potential measure to address the issue of substantially increased traffic congestion and vehicle emissions in Beijing. This study assessed the impact of congestion charging on traffic and emissions in Beijing using macroscopic traffic simulation and vehicle emissions calculation. Multiple testing scenarios were developed with assumptions in different charging zone sizes, public transit service levels and charging methods. Our analysis results showed that congestion charging in Beijing may increase public transit use by approximately 13%, potentially reduce CO and HC emissions by 60–70%, and reduce NOx emissions by 35–45% within the charging zone. However, congestion charging may also result in increased travel activities and emissions outside of the charging zone and a slight increase in emissions for the entire urban area. The size of charging zone, charging method, and charging rate are key factors that directly influence the impact of congestion charging; improved public transit service needs to be considered as a complementary approach with congestion charging. This study is used by Beijing Transportation Environment and Energy Center (BTEC) as reference to support the development of Beijing’s congestion charging policy and regulation.     

船用电器柜抗冲击设计研究

为增强船内部电器柜的抗冲击性能,采用有限元法对船内不同安装型式的电器柜结构进行了模态和抗冲击性能仿真分析,通过对比分析得出了使用撑杆加固型式安装的电器柜能显著提高船内电器柜的抗冲击性能的结论,并确定了电器柜抗冲击优化设计方案。     

单侧边载作用下黏土中单桩负摩阻力特性模型试验研究

桩基础边载作用会在桩周产生负摩阻力,进而危及软土地区高桩码头、人工岛、路基等工程的安全。通过开展黏土中单侧堆载作用下单桩室内模型试验,测定桩身应变、桩顶沉降和水平位移,研究边载作用距离和桩型对桩身轴力及弯矩的影响,探讨桩身负摩阻力、桩顶沉降和水平位移在黏土固结过程中的时间效应。结果表明:边载作用距离对桩身最大轴力和最大弯矩有较大影响;翼板桩会增加桩身最大轴力和最大弯矩;负摩阻力和有效应力系数随时间增长且增速趋缓;增加边载作用距离和添加翼板都会提升桩身中性点位置,在这两组试验中均提升了8.33%。     

Q235钢板对高速弹的抗侵彻特性研究

为探究钢板在典型防御目标弹丸侵彻下的抗弹性能及破坏模式,开展系列弹道实验,并结合有限元分析软件Ansys/LS-DYNA,探讨弹体初速、入射角度及靶板厚度对靶板抗弹性能的影响,对比分析不同条件下的破坏模式.结果表明,在改变单一因素的条件下,弹体初速越大、入射角越大、钢板厚度越大,钢板吸能越高,抗侵彻能力越强.     

超声冲击处理对高强钢焊接接头残余应力影响的数值模拟

超声冲击处理(UIT)是一种有效的焊后改善焊接接头疲劳性能的工艺措施,其借助机械撞击和超声振动的共同作用,使焊趾表面产生塑性变形从而引入有益的压缩残余应力。为评价UIT技术对焊接接头残余应力的影响,该文提出了一套新的数值分析方法,包括焊接数值模拟及随后的超声冲击处理过程的动态弹塑性有限元分析。在有限元模型中考虑了实际的工艺参数和超声促成的材料软化效应。以船用高强钢AH36非承载十字焊接接头为研究对象,将预测的超声冲击处理前后的残余应力分布与实验结果进行对比,两者有较好的吻合。在此基础上,探讨了静态预载荷对超声冲击处理态残余应力再分布的影响。     

高速公路连续箱梁桥独柱墩横向抗倾覆计算及安全性评估

连续梁桥由于结构刚度大、桥面变形小、动力性能好、变形曲线平顺、有利于高速行车等优点,是中小型桥梁的主要结构形式之一,得到了广泛的应用和发展。但是由于超载、偏载以及支座布置不合理等原因,近年来我国连续梁桥出现了多例整体失稳的事故,且事故大多出现在独柱墩连续梁桥上。针对最近发生的独柱墩桥梁倾覆事件,采用有限元程序Midas Civil对拟建的武深高速公路项目中连续箱梁桥独柱墩抗倾覆系数及独柱墩处箱梁支座转角进行验算,并与规范及《广东省高速公路独柱墩连续箱梁桥横向抗倾覆安全性评估验算指导意见》中要求的指标进行对比,对连续箱梁桥独柱墩横向抗倾覆安全性进行合理评估。     

某地下通道浅埋暗挖法施工中的时空效应分析与计算

在浅埋暗挖法施工中,位移预报十分重要,但位移量测值受时空效应的影响,计算很复杂。结合某地下通道的浅埋暗挖法施工,对施工过程中时空效应的产生机理、规律进行探讨,介绍了观测前已发生的位移量、开挖面到达前产生的位移损失量和总沉位移量的计算方法,以提供准确的位移预报。     

大型活动交通影响评价方法

大型活动吸引和产生的突增交通量会造成周边地区的交通拥挤。通过比较大型活动与大型商业建设项目的交通影响评价特点和分析大型活动交通管理的影响因素,分别针对“提供一次性服务的大型活动”和“提供长效服务的大型活动”,设计了交通需求的预测方法。以交叉口服务水平分析方法为基础,提出一种了大型活动的交通影响评价方法。以长春市南岭体育场举办的“中国足球甲A联赛”为对象,运用Vissim微观交通仿真软件对所提出的方法进行了初步验证。结果表明,在大型活动条件下,所提出的方法能够确定需要进行交通管制的空间范围。