自适应指数平滑模型预测区域经济研究

三次指数平滑法预测区域经济时，平滑参数为一常量，这与实际不符，容易使预测结果误差偏大，甚至严重失真。本文在深入剖析指数平滑模型缺陷的基础上，对其进行改进，建立了自适应指数平滑模型。实践证明，该模型能够更好地反映区域经济发展的动态特性，提高预测的精度。     

Fatigue damage calculation for oil tanker and container ship structures

The fatigue behaviour of longitudinal stiffeners of oil tankers and container ships, subjected to dynamic loads, is analysed. The following dynamic load components are considered: hull girder vertical wave bending moment, alone and combined with the horizontal wave bending moment, hydrodynamic pressure and inertial forces caused by cargo acceleration.

The spectral method was selected to calculate the fatigue damage, based on S—N curves and Miner's rule. Following this approach, the fatigue damage may be calculated as a function of a stress parameter Ω_p, which represents the cumulative effect of wave induced loads in the unit of time and incorporates the combined effects of stress level and its occurring frequency.

Simple formulas for Ω_p of oil tankers and container ships are given, obtained from the results of hydrodynamic analyses performed on several ships, in different wave environments.

Several examples show the applicability of the methods to real ship structures. The method, however, still needs to be calibrated because of the simplifying hypotheses introduced in the loading conditions.     

城市交通能耗区的识别及等级划分方法研究

随着社会经济的发展，机动车保有量急剧增长，城市化过程中交通拥堵问题日趋严重，交通能源消耗加剧。为了降低由此带来的损失，需要及时探明路网中交通效率低、能耗高的区域，并采取有效的交通管理措施。通过研究交通状态与能耗的关系，进行相应的交通参数分析，建立能耗区识别及等级划分模型，计算得到3个等级能耗区的界定阈值分别为0．411和0．678。     

Technical Note: Force Control in Electrohydraulic Active Suspensions Revisited

The inner loop control for the actuator force can be quite simply compensated by means of a correction term to the desired force signal at the input. The correction requires only a measurement of the actuator piston velocity and is employed to cancel the loop disturbance caused by the oil flow to the actuator. Although an additional time constant is introduced by the integration in the inner loop force control, the overall performance is nevertheless quite close to that of an ideal optimal system.     

大跨度斜拉桥施工控制的多元统计敏感性分析

为掌握大跨度斜拉桥结构参数变异对结构状态的影响规律，确保斜拉桥的施工安全和工程质量，针对该类型桥梁施工控制参数敏感性分析的实际需求，考虑不同结构参数和不同结构部位相同结构参数的变异性，实现了大跨度斜拉桥施工过程控制中的多元统计敏感性分析。从统计学角度明确了参数敏感性分析为边缘分布问题后，将试验设计方法引入统计多参数敏感性分析，结合参数显著性检验评价参数的敏感性。将同一批次或类似条件制造、施工的构件归为同一子结构，子结构内的相同参数视为一个随机变量，在减少随机变量个数的同时，提升了计算效率。采用分组试验设计降低均匀试验设计难度，在分组参数显著性检验后，将所有显著参数集成在一起进行整体参数显著性检验，最终确定目标结构响应的敏感参数。以某跨越长江的叠合/混合梁斜拉桥的施工控制为例，确定19个结构响应和63个结构参数，对其进行了多元统计敏感性分析。结果表明：斜拉索索力、桥面板重量和钢梁重量等结构参数对叠合主梁线形和内力影响显著；结构参数变异对主梁响应的影响不仅与参数变异大小有关，还与结构参数与响应截面的相对位置有关，一般来说，响应截面附近的子结构参数影响大于远离该截面子结构参数的影响。     

十字板强度推算的抗剪强度指标在箱简型基础设计计算中的应用

新型箱筒型防波堤基础稳定性计算与抗剪强度指标的取值密切相关。在天津港地区,上覆较厚的软粘土层,处于欠固结状态,含水率高,承载力低。在施工期稳定性分析中,目前以十字板强度在工程中应用最广泛,但十字板强度实际上是土体各滑动面的抗剪强度的小值,单一的十字板强度指标无法估算新型箱筒型基础的地基土压力及承载力等。基于十字板强度随深度线性分布的规律及摩尔-库伦抗剪强度原理,结合收集的大量十字板强度实测数据,通过回归统计分析推算出地基土的2个抗剪强度指标,可应用于新型箱筒型基础稳定性和承载力的计算。该方法具有一般性,还可用于软粘土土坡稳定分析。     

新拌混凝土气泡参数分析法评估混凝土抗冻性

通过对国内外资料分析,指出了新拌混凝土气泡参数分析法评估混凝土抗冻性技术是快速无损预控混凝土抗冻性的发展方向,对抗冻混凝土施工具有前瞻性的指导意义。     

大跨度空腹式连续刚构桥设计理论与方法

为寻求常规连续刚构桥适用跨径和斜拉桥适用跨径之间的合理、经济桥型,在常规连续刚构桥的基础上结合拱桥的力学特点提出空腹式连续刚构桥型。该桥型在常规连续刚构桥的形式上加大箱梁根部高度,并对箱梁根部的腹板进行挖空,减轻自重,形成梁-拱组合力学效应,从而提高结构承载效率,增强桥梁跨越能力。空腹式连续刚构桥可布置为单主跨、多主跨以及单T的形式,也可与常规连续刚构组合,桥墩可采用双肢薄壁墩或箱形柱式墩。采用正交试验法对该桥型关键结构参数进行研究,并根据实际工程对总体结构参数取值提出建议。该桥型采用平衡悬臂方法施工,工程造价指标、运营维护技术要求及费用与常规连续刚构桥相当,适用跨径在200~400 m,可望填补常规连续刚构桥适用跨径和斜拉桥适用跨径之间的空白。     

Multiaxial stress creep rupture mechanisms of AZ31 magnesium alloy

The maximum principal stresses, von Mises effective stresses and principal facet stresses at the time of creep rupture were compared in uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial stress states for AZ31 magnesium alloy. The creep rupture of this alloy was experimentally controlled by cavitation, which was the result of a low damage tolerance, λ. Creep deformation could be correlated with the von Mises effective stress parameter. The failure-mechanism control parameter governing the stress state coincided with the experimental results of the rupture of the materials under multiaxial stress states. Finally, the theoretical prediction based on constrained cavity growth and continuous nucleation agreed with the experimental rupture data to within a factor of three.