面向传染病疫情防控的公共交通运行管理决策支持研究

近年来全球新发重大传染病疫情不断出现，已成为人类社会必须防范应对的重大风险。公共交通在传染病疫情防控过程中承担着阻断病毒传播和保障复工复产的功能，疫情期间公共交通运行管理的决策需求和技术支撑体系与日常情况有显著差异。现有研究多针对公交日常运行决策需求展开，虽有少量针对突发公共事件的应急管理决策支持的研究，但多针对自然灾害和事故灾难场景，无法迁移应用于传染病疫情防控。基于此，以新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情为例，综合考虑突发公共卫生事件应急管理流程和疫情防控实际情况，系统梳理疫情不同阶段的防控目标和决策需求，提出一种面向传染病疫情防控的公共交通运行管理决策支持系统框架，建立基于公共卫生事件案例库、多源数据融合库、公交数据分析技术库和公交防疫策略库的功能架构，并设计不同功能模块的算法模型。研究以厦门为例，对提出的决策支持系统的功能架构和算法模型进行验证。研究结果表明，构建公交乘客出行链的成功率为89.7%，并可应用于疫情不同阶段的关联客流分析、感染者同乘人员的追溯分析、医护人员等防疫人员的通勤出行识别、公交运行满载率监控等方面。研究成果不仅对传染病疫情防控有实用价值，而且对突发公共事件应急管理决策支持方法亦有理论贡献。     

Classification of Livebus arrivals user behavior

With the increasing use of Intelligent Transport Systems, large amounts of data are created. Innovative information services are introduced and new forms of data are available, which could be used to understand the behavior of travelers and the dynamics of people flows. This work analyzes the requests for real-time arrivals of bus routes at stops in London made by travelers using Transport for London's LiveBus Arrivals system. The available dataset consists of about one million requests for real-time arrivals for each of the 28 days under observation. These data are analyzed for different purposes. LiveBus Arrivals users are classified based on a set of features and using K-Means, Expectation Maximization, Logistic regression, One-level decision tree, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) by Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO). The results of the study indicate that the LiveBus Arrivals requests can be classified into six main behaviors. It was found that the classification-based approaches produce better results than the clustering-based ones. The most accurate results were obtained with the SVM-SMO methodology (Precision of 97%). Furthermore, the behavior within the six classes of users is analyzed to better understand how users take advantage of the LiveBus Arrivals service. It was found that the 37% of users can be classified as interchange users. This classification could form the basis of a more personalized LiveBus Arrivals application in future, which could support management and planning by revealing how public transport and related services are actually used or update information on commuters.     

新冠肺炎疫情下城市公共交通非常规防疫策略——以宁波市为例

在国家重大突发疫情面前，城市公共交通具有保障出行与阻断疫情的双重责任。面对新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎（简称新冠肺炎，COVID-19）疫情，城市公共交通既要保证有效运输，又要降低疫情扩散的风险。地铁和常规公交是城市公共交通系统不可缺少的一部分，在城市公共交通中占据重要地位。针对宁波市城市公共交通系统中存在的防疫问题，提出了基于问题驱动的城市公共交通非常规防疫策略。研究结果表明：新冠肺炎疫情形势下，城市公共交通系统防疫需要启动应急响应机制，遵循分区分类防控的基本原则，在保障人们刚性出行需求的同时，必须阻断疫情传播，减少通过公共交通运输造成的交叉感染，实现疫情可防可控。除体温检测、佩戴口罩与洗手消毒等防疫措施之外，还应结合地方实际和风险评估等级采取非常规的组合防疫策略，即：①面向城市常规公交，建议采取网格化运营策略、需求响应式运营策略以及应急公交接驳策略；②面向城市轨道交通，建议采取3级组合防疫策略，即暂停运营策略、车厢隔离防疫策略以及需求响应式防疫策略。以上常规公交与轨道交通的多种组合防疫策略需根据疫情的发展情况动态调整，及时启动相应级别的公共交通应急预案，被动防御与主动防控相结合，积极发挥城市公共交通在疫情时期的交通骨干作用和应急保障作用。     

Exploring Participants' Views of Participatory Coastal and Marine Resource Management Processes

It is generally accepted that stakeholders, including resource users, scientists, conservationists, government and nongovernment organizations, and the general public, can contribute positively to management processes and may even benefit from such processes. However, we continue to struggle with how to design processes that effectively involve these stakeholders. To illuminate potential improvements to traditional processes, this study examines participants’ perceptions of coastal and marine resource management processes. Through semi-structured interviews, respondents describe how they feel about various elements of participatory processes. Responses offer insight into the multiple dimensions of participatory process elements described in the literature, such as influence on decisions, exchange of information, access to the process, transparent decision making, and others. Responses also identify additional elements that have received limited attention in the public-participation literature: hosting meetings at various scales, recognizing differences within interest groups, and considering the context of a process. Results from this study will help to inform the design of participatory coastal and marine resource management processes.     

港口规划环境影响评价中公众参与模式探讨

国家对环境影响评价工作中的公众参与非常重视,相继出台多项相关法规政策。目前对于建设项目环境影响评价中公众参与的形式和方法国内外已有一些理论研究和较多的实践应用,但对于规划环境影响评价中采取何种有效的公众参与模式尚需深入研究。通过对国内十多个港口总体规划环评案例进行归纳总结,阐述了港口规划环评公众参与的目的与意义,分析提出了港口规划环评公众参与的工作原则、工作方案和调查意见统计分析方法,并针对港口规划环评公众参与的重点和难点进行了分析研究,探讨港口规划环评中开展公众参与的有效方法和途径。     

Flexible feeder transit route design to enhance service accessibility in urban area

To improve the accessibility of transit system in urban areas, this paper presents a flexible feeder transit routing model that can serve irregular‐shaped networks. By integrating the cost efficiency of fixed‐route transit system and the flexibility of demand responsive transit system, the proposed model is capable of letting operating feeder busses temporarily deviate from their current route so as to serve the reported demand locations. With an objective of minimizing total bus travel time, a new operational mode is then proposed to allow busses to serve passengers on both street sides. In addition, when multiple feeder busses are operating in the target service area, the proposed model can provide an optimal plan to locate the nearest one to response to the demands. A three‐stage solution algorithm is also developed to yield meta‐optimal solutions to the problem in a reasonable amount of time by transforming the problem into a traveling salesman problem. Numerical studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed model as well as the heuristic solution approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

公路规划环评中公众参与框架的设计与实施评价

论文分析了环境影响评价中公众参与的现状和国内外发展的状况以及目前存在的问题，对公众参与在环境影响评价中应用的意义和作用进行了探讨，根据公路规划的特点和环境影响提出了提高公众参与有效性的原则和实施框架，建立了对公众参与过程进行评价的模糊综合评价方法和变权评价方法。研究结果对规范公路规划环评中的公众参与以及保证公众参与的有效实施具有现实意义。     

鱼雷作战仿真系统中鱼雷联邦成员的设计

针对鱼雷武器作战分布交互仿真的需求，给出了鱼雷节点框架的设计思路和实现方法，实现了模型、接口、界面的分离，增强了鱼雷武器模型的可扩展性和可重构性；开发出鱼雷武器模型的基础类库和相关数据库，从而有利于用户对鱼雷模型的修改和维护。运行结果表明，经过上述改造的仿真系统运行稳定，为工程研制人员提供了友好的仿真软件。     

单片机系统利用电话进行远程数据通信的研究

介绍了遥测、遥控系统中远程数据通信的基本模式和一般的系统组成结构;论述了有线电话MODEM的基本工作原理和常用工作方式;给出了遥测终端机中的单片机与MODEM的接口方法和AT指令集的用法及通信程序设计。     

文化传播、公共舆论与中国新文学的发生——《文化传播与现代中国文学》读札

马永强的《文化传播与现代中国文学》一书从文化传播的视角深刻地考察了中国新文学发生的动力问题，并从晚清近代中国社会涉及文化传播的方方面面深入剖析了现代中国文学发生的必然性，作者深怀着“史”家意识对其中所涉及的各个问题做出了历史的辩证的分析。作者创造性地转化并提出的“公共舆论”这一理论成为该著的最大亮点，并从多个方面取得了对“文化传播与现代中国文学”之关系研究的成功。