全国水运货运量预测的灰色系统模型

介绍灰色控制系统的基本理论，并给出了全国水运货运量预测的GM（1，1）模型，可供水运部门制定规划时参考。     

Using longitudinal methods for analysis of a short-term transportation demonstration project

This paper documents an application of panel, or longitudinal data collection in the evaluation of a TSM (Transportation Systems Management) demonstration project. The project was a four-week demonstration of staggered work hours in downtown Honolulu during February–March 1988. The 4 wave panel survey elicited commuting experiences of approximately 2,000 downtown employees at two week intervals before and during the project. The sample involved both employees who participated in the project by shifting their work hours, and those who did not. The panel survey was augmented by floating-car observations of travel times on major routes into downtown Honolulu on the same four dates.The purpose of the analysis was to determine whether employee commute times were affected, and if so, how these changes were distributed among various employee segments. Two methods were used. First, travel time changes were estimated using paired t-tests. Second, regression equations were used to estimate project time savings as a function of trip length, route, and location of residence. Results show that travel time savings due to the project were typically small, less than ten percent. Nonparticipants experienced greater savings than participants, and some segments of participants experienced longer travel times during the project. The panel method proved to be an effective way to measure project travel time impacts and shows that the method is appropriate in short time applications.Presented at the Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, January 7–11. 1990, Washington, D.C.     

汽车史应从16世纪始——论世界汽车技术史大观

明确汽车的定义是研究汽车发展史的前提。按照本文所下汽车的定义,16世纪的风帆车是现代汽车的开山鼻祖。1886年是现代活塞式内燃机汽车的开端。 汽车发展史将无限延续于人类社会。内燃机作为汽车动力仍旧如日冲天,生命力强大,但多种动力型式并存的局面已经开始。     

平溃散对实验性胃溃疡模型的影响

作者观察了平溃散对多种实验性胃溃疡模型的作用。结果表明：平溃散可非常显著的对抗束缚应激法和消炎痛加乙醇所致的小鼠胃溃疡；对幽门结扎法及ＨＣｌ损伤法所致大鼠胃溃疡模型也有明显对抗作用。各组分研究表明：平溃散基础方组、全方组、绞股蓝组和沙棘组均有显著的抗溃疡作用，但以全方组抗溃疡作用最佳。     

摩托车电喷发动机转速测量系统的设计

转速是摩托车电喷系统点火和喷油所依据的重要参数之一,转速测量是电喷系统的关键技术。比较器调理电路和555芯片调理电路经过实际调试均能正常工作,但从可靠性和抗干扰角度考虑,555芯片组成的施密特触发器要比比较器电路可靠性高,抗干扰能力强。文中介绍的单片机测量计算转速的2种方案,实践证明准确可行。     

基于光流法的舰船运动要素测定原理研究

对基于光流法的舰船运动要素测定原理进行了研究，主要包括光流法测定舰船运动要素的思想、光流场解算、三维运动参数解算和舰船运动要素解算。该方法的提出，提高了运动要素测定的自主性，而且满足新型全封闭舰船的测定要求。     

和谐交通的伦理构建:系统、结构、层次

构建"和谐交通"是系统性的价值目标,需要以和谐伦理为导向,从宏观上审视现代交通关系的结构及其特征,研究交通主体之间、交通客体之间、交通主客体之间的基本关系及其状态,通过一系列调整优化,使之不断地从冲突走向和谐。     

GM(1,1)模型与指数模型在基桩沉降预测中的应用

以某大型基桩的沉降预测为例,利用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)与Aeax曲线模型进行基桩在外荷载作用下沉降量的预测。结果表明:两种模型对于呈指数变化规律的系统能获得较好的预测结果;两种模型对基桩累计沉降的预测符合工程实际,对各级荷载作用下的本级沉降预测不够合理。对两种模型关系的研究表明,两者有内在联系,都属指数曲线预测模型,且指数曲线Aeax预测模型比GM(1,1)模型应用起来更简单,方便。     

基于OWA算子和语言OWA算子的舰船研制方案群决策

针对舰船研制方案存在的问题以及定量指标和定性指标的特点,提出一种基于OWA算子和语言OWA算子的综合多属性群决策方法,再结合效用函数来对其进行研究.将多位专家对研制方案的意见综合为专家组的一致意见,实现了舰船研制方案的评估.最后,通过实例说明该方法的有效性及合理性.     

基于实数遗传算法的列车优化操纵曲线研究

列车优化操纵是列车节能控制的关键问题，以列车运行动力学方程和牵引计算理论为基础，结合列车运行过程中的要求，构建以能耗、时分误差、限速等为目标的列车节能控制模型，采用实数遗传算法，通过Visual Basic编程对此问题进行求解。在已知列车编组的条件下，以DF4型内燃机车牵引客车、空气制动和燃油量曲线为基础，得到给定运行时间、距离条件下的优化操纵曲线，从而对司机操纵给出指导性意见。