两种短时交通流混沌预测方法分析

短时交通流预测是智能交通系统的核心内容和交通信息服务、交通诱导的重要基础。采用符合交通流特性的混沌理论对短期交通流进行预测。在相空间重构和混沌识别的基础上,建立短期交通流加权一阶局域预测模型和基于最大Lyapunov指数的预测模型,并对一组实际的交通流数据进行预测。仿真结果表明:两种方法都能较准确的预测交通流,但最大Lyapunov指数预测模型的预测精度相对较高。     

航海专业高等数学教学改革探索

分析了目前航海专业高等数学教学现状,且指出了航海专业高等数学教学存在的问题;依据国家中长期教育改革和发展规划纲,围绕着＂以学生为中心、以能力培养为中心、以就业为导向＂改革思路,提出了航海专业高等数学教学具体改革方案.     

黄土路堤沉降特性与工后沉降预测模型分析

阐述了黄土的分布与性质,对黄土路堤沉降的机理及原因进行了分析.分析比较了基于实测资料预测黄土路堤工后沉降值的实用模型,包括指数模型,幂函数模型,双曲线模型.以指数模型为例,根据已建成某大坝实测数据,确定了预测模型的参数.     

郑州市科学大道-西三环互通式立交工程方案选型设计探讨

从预测交通量分析出发,结合互通式立交功能、既有构造物等建设条件,对互通式立交型式进行方案综合比选,从而推荐出功能完善、与既有构造物衔接良好、造价较低的互通方案。     

砂土宏观力学特性与细观结构的相关性试验研究

通过无标点变形量测系统分析桩周土变形场,确定剪切破坏区和显微细观观测点.应用MiVnt系统分析加荷过程中土细观参数变化,细观参数(1+e)/e3、颗粒偏心度与基础位移的相关性最强;随荷载增大,1#,2#点孔隙比下降呈负相关关系,引起剪缩特征,3#点呈正相关关系而剪胀应力松弛;1,2,3#点颗粒定向性均增高呈正相关性,表明颗粒分布有序性减弱,土体具有非稳定性的承载形式.     

浅谈钣金展开方法在海洋平台施工中的应用

针对海洋平台构件的特点,介绍了钣金展开方法在平台施工、构件制作中的应用.在分析介绍三种钣金展开方法的基础上,通过几个案例进行了说明,并且作了进一步的探讨.     

深水铺管船技术研究

海底管道在海洋石油天然气的运输方面起到越来越重要的作用,但随着铺管海域水深的增加,对海底管道的铺设方法和主要铺设工具——铺管船也提出了更高的要求.文章介绍了目前普遍使用的几种深水铺管船的船型特点及铺管方法,并以ABS规范为基准,详细说明了深水铺管船入级在总体、结构、舾装等方面应达到的各项要求.     

朝阳洲地区路基处治措施及评价

道路工程中遇到不良路基时必须经过相应的技术措施处理才能达到技术标准。分析南昌市朝阳洲地区高含水量路基对道路工程的影响,提出不良路基处理的一般技术措施及其注意事项。     

Does the income elasticity of road traffic depend on the source of income?

An extensive body of literature addresses the income elasticity of road traffic, in which income is typically treated as a homogenous quantity. Here we report evidence of heterogeneity in cross-sectional estimates of the elasticity of vehicle-kilometres of travel (VKT) with respect to income, when household income is disaggregated on the basis of income source.The results are generally intuitive, and show that the cross-sectional income elasticity of road traffic is not homogeneous as is typically specified in transport planning models. We show that in a number of circumstances the cross-sectional elasticity with respect to aggregate household income is of the opposite sign in comparison to more refined estimates of elasticity disaggregated by income source. If further research confirms that the elasticities we report here are causal in nature, neglecting the elemental effects could result in misleading results affecting practical infrastructure-investment and policy decisions, particularly as the mix of income sources shifts (e.g. if, as society ages, pension income increases as a share of all income).These results are of interest to both researchers and forecasters of travel demand, as well as designers of future travel survey instruments; the latter group must decide how to generate data about respondents’ income. Current expert guidance is to collect a single estimate of aggregate income at the household level. Future travel survey design choices will bound the analyses that can be supported by the resulting survey data, and therefore methodological research to re-visit the trade-offs associated with such choices is warranted.     

Path flow estimator for planning applications in small communities

This paper presents an alternative planning framework to model and forecast network traffic for planning applications in small communities, where limited resources debilitate the development and applications of the conventional four-step travel demand forecasting model. The core idea is to use the Path Flow Estimator (PFE) to estimate current and forecast future traffic demand while taking into account of various field and planning data as modeling constraints. Specifically, two versions of PFE are developed: a base year PFE for estimating the current network traffic conditions using field data and planning data, if available, and a future year PFE for predicting future network traffic conditions using forecast planning data and the estimated base year origin–destination trip table as constraints. In the absence of travel survey data, the proposed method uses similar data (traffic counts and land use data) as a four-step model for model development and calibration. Since the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) trip generation rates and Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) are both utilized in the modeling process, the analysis scope and results are consistent with those of common traffic impact studies and other short-range, localized transportation improvement programs. Solution algorithms are also developed to solve the two PFE models and integrated into a GIS-based software called Visual PFE. For proof of concept, two case studies in northern California are performed to demonstrate how the tool can be used in practice. The first case study is a small community of St. Helena, where the city’s planning department has neither an existing travel demand model nor the budget for developing a full four-step model. The second case study is in the city of Eureka, where there is a four-step model developed for the Humboldt County that can be used for comparison. The results show that the proposed approach is applicable for small communities with limited resources.