基于模糊理论的船舶复合碰撞危险度计算

基于船舶领域和动界的概念,在船舶碰撞几何原理的基础上,利用模糊规则和模糊综合评价方法,本文提出一种船舶复合碰撞危险度的计算方法.确定最近会遇距离(DCPA)、最近会遇时间(TCPA)、两船距离、相对方位、船速比5个主要因素的隶属度函数,并考虑航行区域状况、能见度情况和船舶的操纵性能等对船舶碰撞危险度的隶属度函数修正.用原始数据对3种不同会遇态势进行仿真和对3种不同碰撞危险度计算结果分析比较,结果表明该方法的有效性.     

Can ports increase traffic while reducing inputs? Technical efficiency of Spanish Port Authorities using a directional distance function approach

The focus of this paper is on the productive efficiency of ports. We estimate a directional technology distance function using parametric techniques to analyze the production technology and technical efficiency of a set of Spanish Port Authorities observed over the period 1993–2012. Technical inefficiency is conceived as the ability of ports to simultaneously expand a given output and contract variable inputs while maintaining quasi-fixed inputs and other outputs constant. Thus, for containerized cargo we address the following question: Given the amount of quasi-fixed inputs used by the firm and given the volume of the other outputs (liquids, solids, non-containerized cargo and passenger traffic), could ports increase their containerized merchandise while simultaneously reducing their variable inputs? Similar questions are asked for solid bulk and non-containerized general cargo. Our results show evidence of technical inefficiency among the ports in our sample. In particular, if the ports operated efficiently, we find that containerized cargo could be expanded by an average of over 6.4%, with an equivalent reduction in variable inputs. Solid bulk cargo and general non-containerized cargo could be increased by 4.1% and 6.1% respectively, with corresponding reductions in variable inputs. An implication of our results is that there is ample scope for specialization on the part of ports with no increase in infrastructure costs. Given that large investments in infrastructure have been made in Spanish port over the last decade, this opens the possibility of moving towards a management model based on taking advantage of existing capacity rather than new investments.     

How do economies of density in container handling operations affect ships’ time and emissions in port? Evidence from Norwegian container terminals

Efficient port services are prerequisites for competitive and sustainable maritime transports. This paper makes advances in studying the determinants of the time that ships spend in port and the associated emissions to air. We estimate a production model for cargo handling based on a unique dataset containing each port of call at the largest container terminals in Norway in 2014. In turn, we use auxiliary engine emission factors to estimate particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions from ships at berth, to determine how the corresponding damage costs of air pollution vary with container throughput, location, and terminal investments. We find that Norwegian container terminals operate under increasing returns to density. Small ships that unload few containers are far from reaping economies of density, leading to high marginal time requirements for container handling and consequently high marginal external costs. From a Pigouvian taxation perspective, port charges should therefore be regressive in the number of containers handled. Moreover, we find that the external costs of maritime transports are severely understated when port operations are ignored. Our model allows determining the marginal productivities of port facilities. Thereby, it is instrumental in designing port charges that are diversified according to the quantity of containers handled and the service quality (i.e., the speed of handling operations). Regarding contextual factors, we find that establishing high-frequent liner services improves the ship working rate, while simultaneous calls at a terminal impede productivity. The type of container (loading/unloading; empty/laden) also appears to influence the duration of ship working.     

基于生长曲线函数的货车运营环节碳达峰研究

货车是我国大气环境污染的重要来源之一，也是影响我国碳达峰总体目标实现的重要因 素。本文从货车运营环节入手，在运用生长曲线函数对货车保有量进行预测的基础上，对不同类 型货车的保有量和单车碳排放变化进行研究，并从货车节能技术发展、新能源货车推广和应用进 程两方面入手，分3种情景对货车运营环节中产生的碳排放总量趋势进行预判，推演货车运营环 节的碳达峰时间。研究结果表明，只有同时加快货车节能技术发展以及新能源货车推广和应用 进程，货车运营环节中产生的碳排放总量规模才能得到有效抑制并逐渐减少。若到 2030 年货 车单车燃料消耗水平较 2019 年降低 20%以上，新能源货车在货车整体保有量中的占比达到 20%，到 2060 年货车单车燃料消耗水平较 2019 年降低 50%，新能源货车占比达到 50%，则货车 运营环节碳达峰时间将缩短至2030年左右实现，2030年后货车运营环节产生的碳排放总量规 模将逐渐减少。     

Nonlinear pricing in linear cities with elastic demands

Nonlinear road pricing charges each traveler based on his/her trip’s corresponding particular attribute level. In order to help authorities in designing road pricing systems at a strategic level, this paper attempts to address two fundamental questions: (i) what is the value of pricing’s nonlinearity for mitigating traffic congestion? (ii) if a nonlinear toll function is implemented, should it be convex, concave or other shape? Specifically, we consider distance-based pricing in linear cities. For linear monocentric cities with heterogeneous travelers, we show that the system optimal distance-based pricing indeed exhibits nonlinearity. It is proved that: (i) the cost-based system optimal toll function is monotonically increasing and concave with respect to the traveled distance; (ii) the time-based system optimal toll function always exists and is unique. If the initial proportion of each traveler group is invariant along a corridor and the demand function is of exponential type, then the time-based system optimal toll function enables the travelers, living further away from a city center, to face a lower toll level per unit distance. For a linear polycentric city, we demonstrate: (i) there always exists the system optimal differentiated (in terms of city centers) toll functions; (ii) it is highly possible that the system optimal non-differentiated toll function does not exist. Hence, we further propose an optimal toll design model, prove the Lipschitz continuity of its objective and adopt a global-optimization algorithm to solve it.     

基于改进Copula 的海上运输关键节点应急保障能力评估

海上运输关键节点的应急保障是最大限度减少突发事件造成损失的重要方面. 考虑影响海上运输关键节点应急保障能力各因素之间的关联性，因素变量分布情况的影响，以及多维变量导致Copula 函数的参数求解困难等问题，构建基于因子分析(Factor Analysis)和 Copula 函数(FA-Copula)的海上运输关键节点的应急保障能力评估模型，对海上运输关键节点应急保障能力进行评估，分析不同因素的影响. 计算结果显示：整体对比来看，应急能力比较好的是直布罗陀海峡、马六甲海峡和巴拿马运河，比较差的是苏伊士运河；从其中提取的公共因子FA1 来看，马六甲海峡比较好，苏伊士运河比较差；对不同因子变量联合分布比较发现，不同因子变量分布会对结果产生不同的影响.     

基于价值工程的全生命周期趸船材质方案比选研究

将趸船整个生命周期过程中的技术先进性、经济合理性和环境协调性有机地融合为一体,基于价值工程理论提出趸船材质方法比选。实例表明在千岛湖这样的大吨位船舶碰撞概率很小的水域,采用混凝土趸船明显优于钢质趸船。     

洋山深水港西港区岸线功能规划调整

为满足洋山深水港生产营运需要,有关部门希望保留颗珠山—蒋公柱潮流汊道,这与总体规划布置不一致。为此需进行深水港西港区岸线功能规划调整研究。考虑到汊道的颗珠山一侧潮流具有岬角绕流型特点,而蒋公柱一侧有岬角环抱型特点;在此认识基础上针对多种岸线方案进行试验。试验结果表明,采用岸线优化方案后,可以保持甚至改善汊道内和已建港区潮流条件。从水流角度看,采取合理的岸线布置和适当的工程措施后,保留和开发利用颗珠山—蒋公柱潮流汊道是可行的。     

基于指数函数非线性反馈的船舶航向保持控制

为研究船舶航向保持控制问题,本文以“育鹏”轮为研究对象,建立了其非线性Nomoto船舶模型,设计了基于闭环增益成形算法的指数函数非线性反馈控制器,并以“育鹏”轮的非线性模型为被控制对象,用Matlab的Simulink工具箱进行系统仿真研究。系统仿真结果表明,建立的非线性Nomoto数学模型精度良好,设计的控制器进行船舶航向保持控制时效果优异,并且更节能。使用这种方法设计的控制器,可以很好地进行船舶航向保持控制,对今后的船舶运动仿真和控制器的设计具有重要意义。     

基于NOVA的多孔材料吸声性能分析及优化

三聚氰胺泡沫是一种性能优良的多孔吸声材料.利用NOVA软件对三聚氰胺泡沫的吸声特性进行分析.首先将数值计算得到的多孔材料吸声系数与实测值比较,证明NOVA的预报结果具有可靠性.接着,分析了3种常见多孔材料的吸声系数曲线.最后,以材料厚度、密度、孔隙率和背面空腔厚度4个参数为因素,每个因素取4个水平,选用L16(45)正交表进行正交试验,找到了使材料平均吸声系数最高的因素水平组合,并通过方差分析发现,材料厚度和背后空腔厚度是影响三聚氰胺泡沫吸声性能的主要因素.