公路诱增交通量预测方法综述

本本文首先讨论了诱增交通量的概念,并按不同的发展阶段对其分类。结合不同类型诱增交通量的特性,分析总结了各种诱增交通量预测方法的适用范围,并用实例验证。     

乡镇汽车客运站场规模确定方法研究

通过对传统乡镇汽车客运站场规模确定方法不足的分析,针对农村旅客运输特点,对乡镇汽车客运站的功能进行了定位,从农村客运站场网络体系优化出发,提出了协调法确定乡镇汽车客运站场规模,建立了相应的站场规模调整模型,并给出了计算步骤和相关参数的标定方法及部分推荐值。最后通过成都市青白江区的实例验证了方法的可行性。     

基于道路设计与交通规划的道路选线优化模型

结合道路设计理论与交通规划理论,以地理信息系统为平台,开发道路选线优化模型。该模型是一个费用指向的优化问题,最小化费用目标函数中包括道路建设费用、土方工程费、道路交通诱发的环境污染的不经济费用,OD交通在路网上总走行时间的时间费用等。优化模型首先随机生成新建道路的空间位置候选方案集,并自动设计新建道路的平曲线和竖曲线,计算新建道路的各项工程费用。然后,对变化的路网进行自动拓扑,通过交通量分配得到OD交通在新路网上的走行时间和交通流特征,计算OD交通的环境负荷。最后,在遗传算法中判断候选方案的优劣,直到得到一个最佳的新建道路的空间位置方案为止。     

道路交通无序拥挤控制模型的研究

为了解决道路交通无序拥挤控制问题,定义交通序参数、路段交通的有序和无序,建立涨落后无序拥挤控制过程数学规划模型,采用动态分流决策方法求解模型得出无序拥挤控制的最佳方案,并给出相应的算法,最后用一个例子说明算法的实用性。     

修正四阶段法在城市交通抗灾规划中的应用

根据地震环境下不同恢复阶段的社会经济活动及交通系统特性,对传统交通预测四阶段法———出行产生、出行分布、方式划分、交通分配的宏观模型进行了修正,讨论了不同模型的参数变化趋势,建议了参数的调整原则及方法,进而以修正四阶段法为基础进行震后交通需求预测。该方法简便易行,预测得到道路通行能力、流量、负荷度和平均运行时间等多个指标,为城市交通系统防灾规划提供决策依据。最后,结合我国东南沿海某城市的工程实践,有针对性的进行了应用和验证。     

城市大型建设项目交通影响分析

城市建设项目交通影响分析(TIA)能有效控制城市土地建设项目对交通的影响。文章分别从执行局面和研究层面阐述了TIA的主要内容,并结合国内外研究现状,分析了TIA各项关键指标和技术方法目前所存在的缺陷,指出目前TIA研究所存在的若干问题,同时总结归纳了建设项目进行TIA的一般流程。     

Short-term Hourly Traffic Forecasts using Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census

The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station. Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region.     

大规模施工对城市路网交通影响评估技术研究

传统的施工期交通组织研究一般只针对单个建设项目，而城市在举办特别重大活动之前往往有一轮建设高潮，形成大范围集中性施工，对城市路网运行的影响很大，需从全局角度系统性评估其交通影响。针对大批量建设项目同时施工对路网整体的交通影响，提出了路网敏感路段划分、路网通行能力损失测算、基于交通模型推演的交通拥堵指数预测等评估技术，并在杭州“迎亚运”重大基础设施建设中予以运用，应用效果较好。     

Towards a generic benchmarking platform for origin–destination flows estimation/updating algorithms: Design,demonstration and validation

Estimation/updating of Origin–Destination (OD) flows and other traffic state parameters is a classical, widely adopted procedure in transport engineering, both in off-line and in on-line contexts. Notwithstanding numerous approaches proposed in the literature, there is still room for considerable improvements, also leveraging the unprecedented opportunity offered by information and communication technologies and big data. A key issue relates to the unobservability of OD flows in real networks – except from closed highway systems – thus leading to inherent difficulties in measuring performance of OD flows estimation/updating methods and algorithms. Starting from these premises, the paper proposes a common evaluation and benchmarking framework, providing a synthetic test bed, which enables implementation and comparison of OD estimation/updating algorithms and methodologies under “standardized” conditions. The framework, implemented in a platform available to interested parties upon request, has been flexibly designed and allows comparing a variety of approaches under various settings and conditions. Specifically, the structure and the key features of the framework are presented, along with a detailed experimental design for the application of different dynamic OD flow estimation algorithms. By way of example, applications to both off-line/planning and on-line algorithms are presented, together with a demonstration of the extensibility of the presented framework to accommodate additional data sources.     

城市交通能耗区的识别及等级划分方法研究

随着社会经济的发展，机动车保有量急剧增长，城市化过程中交通拥堵问题日趋严重，交通能源消耗加剧。为了降低由此带来的损失，需要及时探明路网中交通效率低、能耗高的区域，并采取有效的交通管理措施。通过研究交通状态与能耗的关系，进行相应的交通参数分析，建立能耗区识别及等级划分模型，计算得到3个等级能耗区的界定阈值分别为0．411和0．678。