Identifying tourists and analyzing spatial patterns of their destinations from location-based social media data

Reliable travel behavior data is a prerequisite for transportation planning process. In large tourism dependent cities, tourists are the most dynamic population group whose size and travel choices remain unknown to planners. Traditional travel surveys generally observe resident travel behavior and rarely target tourists. Ubiquitous uses of social media platforms in smartphones have created a tremendous opportunity to gather digital traces of tourists at a large scale. In this paper, we present a framework on how to use location-based data from social media to gather and analyze travel behavior of tourists. We have collected data of about 67,000 users from Twitter using its search interface for Florida. We first propose several filtering steps to create a reliable sample from the collected Twitter data. An ensemble classification technique is proposed to classify tourists and residents from user coordinates. The accuracy of the proposed classifier has been compared against the state-of-the-art classification methods. Finally, different clustering methods have been used to find the spatial patterns of destination choices of tourists. Promising results have been found from the output clusters as they reveal most popular tourist spots as well as some of the emerging tourist attractions in Florida. Performance of the proposed clustering techniques has been assessed using internal clustering validation indices. We have analyzed temporal patterns of tourist and resident activities to validate the classification of the users in two separate groups of tourists and residents. Proposed filtering, identification, and clustering techniques will be significantly useful for building individual-level tourist travel demand models from social media data.     

75000t散货船阻力预报方法研究

在75000t散货船的设计建造过程中，主机的选型和功率的确定至关重要，这都取决于船舶在静水中以一定航速航行时的阻力值。本文对船舶阻力研究的三种方法，经验公式估算、船模试验和CFD数值计算进行介绍，并以75000t散货船为例讨论三种方法的预报阻力的可行性，以供设计者参考。     

A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.     

Incorporating the extended theory of planned behavior in a school travel mode choice model: a case study of Shaoxing,China

Travel to and from school can have social, economic, and environmental implications for students and their parents. Therefore, understanding school travel mode choice behavior is essential to find policy-oriented approaches to optimizing school travel mode share. Recent research suggests that psychological factors of parents play a significant role in school travel mode choice behavior and the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model has been used to test the effect of psychological constructs on mode choice behavior. However, little research has used a systematic framework of behavioral theory to organize these psychological factors and investigate their internal relationships. This paper proposes an extended theory of planned behavior (ETPB) to delve into the psychological factors caused by the effects of adults’ cognition and behavioral habits and explores the factors’ relationship paradigm. A theoretical framework of travel mode choice behavior for students in China is constructed. We established the MIMIC model that accommodates latent variables from ETPB. We found that not all the psychological latent variables have significant effects on school travel mode choice behavior, but habit can play an essential role. The results provide theoretical support for demand policies for school travel.     

客车捎带模式下高铁快捷货物输送方案研究

以提高高铁快运当日达产品的时效性、收益率为核心,对既有载客动车组捎带模式下的快捷货物输送方案进行优化。借助时空网络以列车运行成本与时间惩罚费用之和最小为目标,同时满足货主时限、列车容量以及列车停站方案等约束,建立输送方案优化模型,通过匈牙利算法,并借助Matlab的Yalmip工具箱求解模型。以兰州西站至天水南站、宝鸡南站及西安北站部分时间段的快捷货物运输需求为背景进行算例分析,验证模型的有效性。结果表明合理估算列车装载容量及货物的延迟时限对输送方案的选择起重要作用。     

船舶低硫柴油系统设计的分析与优化

就新辟航线首制船“汉亚直达”集装箱船的低硫柴油系统,叙述了船舶低硫柴油系统的设计经验,从当前国内外对船用燃油硫含量的要求、应对方案到船舶低硫柴油冷却方式选择、低硫柴油冷却系统设计、高/低硫柴油转换、使用低硫柴油风险分析及处理等方面进行详细叙述,为业内同行提供参考。     

弹性垫形式的水下弹性体发射动力学分析

弹性垫会对水下运载器发射动力学产生影响,文章针对弹性垫形式,利用Lagrange方程推导了新型适配关系下的发射动力学方程,同时考虑了运载器的刚体运动、弹性变形、弹性垫变形与接触对发射过程的影响。利用文中的方法,建立了水下运载器发射动力学模型,对发射过程的载荷进行了求解,研究了弹性垫数量、刚度、位置等参数对运载器弹性振动的影响。结果表明文中方法是有效的,可用于水下运载器发射动力学分析。     

Assessment of factors associated with travel time reliability and prediction: an empirical analysis using probabilistic reasoning approach

Significant efforts have been made in modeling a travel time distribution and establishing measures of travel time reliability (TTR). However, the literature on evaluating the factors affecting TTR is not well established. Accordingly, this paper presents an empirical analysis to determine potential factors that are associated with TTR. This study mainly applies the Bayesian Networks model to assess the probabilistic association between road geometry, traffic data, and TTR. The results from this model reveal that land use characteristics, intersection factors, and posted speed limits are directly associated with TTR. Evaluating the strength of the association between TTR and the directly related variables, the log odds ratio analysis indicates that the land use factor has the highest impact (0.83) followed by the intersection factor (0.57). The findings from this study can provide valuable resources to planners and traffic operators in their decision-making to improve TTR with quantitative evidence.     

Capturing correlation with a mixed recursive logit model for activity-travel scheduling

Representing activity-travel scheduling decisions as path choices in a time–space network is an emerging approach in the literature. In this paper, we model choices of activity, location, timing and transport mode using such an approach and seek to estimate utility parameters of recursive logit models. Relaxing the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property of the logit model in this setting raises a number of challenges. First, overlap in the network may not fully characterize perceptual correlation between paths, due to their interpretation as activity schedules. Second, the large number of states that are needed to represent all possible locations, times and activity combinations imposes major computational challenges to estimate the model. We combine recent methodological developments to build on previous work by Blom Västberg et al. (2016) and allow to model complex and realistic correlation patterns in this type of network. We use sampled choices sets in order to estimate a mixed recursive logit model in reasonable time for large-scale, dense time-space networks. Importantly, the model retains the advantage of fast predictions without sampling choice sets. In addition to estimation results, we present an extensive empirical analysis which highlights the different substitution patterns when the IIA property is relaxed, and a cross-validation study which confirms improved out-of-sample fit.     

港口与运输方式及陆港联合选择的巢式Logit模型

为刻画托运人对港口、运输方式及陆港的联合选择行为，将港口费用、等待时间、班轮频率、货物价值、单次运量、运输成本、运输及通关时间、准班率、陆港服务作为效用变量，构建港口选择位于上层、运输方式及陆港选择位于下层的巢式Logit模型.基于辽宁部分城市集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据，对模型参数进行估计和检验.结果表明，低运量倾向选择公路运输，托运人对多式联运的运输成本、运输及通关时间比公路运输的更重视，对公路运输的准班率比多式联运的更重视，陆港服务对多式联运具有显著正向影响，巢式Logit模型比MNL模型具有更优的统计学特征.