Stability and bifurcation in network traffic flow: A Poincaré map approach

Previous studies have shown that, in a diverge-merge network with two intermediate links (the DM network), the kinematic wave model always admits stationary solutions under constant boundary conditions, but periodic oscillations can develop from empty initial conditions. Such contradictory observations suggest that the stationary states be unstable. In this study we develop a systematic approach to investigate the stability property of stationary states in this and other networks within the framework of network kinematic wave theories. Based on the observation that kinematic waves propagate in a circular path when only one of the two intermediate links is congested, we derive a one-dimensional, discrete Poincaré map in the out-flux at a Poincaré section. We then prove that the fixed points of the Poincaré map correspond to stationary flow-rates on the two links. With Lyapunov’s first method, we demonstrate that the Poincaré map can be finite-time stable, asymptotically stable, or unstable. When unstable, the map is found to have periodical points of period two, but no chaotic solutions. We further analyze the bifurcation in the stability of the Poincaré map caused by varying route choice proportions. We apply the Poincaré map approach to analyzing traffic patterns in more general (DM)ⁿ and beltway networks, which are sufficient and necessary structures for network-induced unstable traffic and gridlock, respectively. This study demonstrates that the Poincaré map approach can be efficiently applied to analyze traffic dynamics in any road networks with circular information propagation and provides new insights into unstable traffic dynamics caused by interactions among network bottlenecks.     

Monitoring Aircraft Turnaround Operations – Framework Development,Application and Implications for Airline Operations

Abstract

A real-time operation monitoring system – Aircraft Turnaround Monitoring System – is developed based on a system framework to monitor aircraft turnaround operations at an airport. Mobile computing devices (PDAs) and wireless network technology General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) are used to implement the real-time monitoring system for an airline. System implementation and test results indicate that real-time operation monitoring can potentially reduce delays occurring from airline operations. Proactive measures can be taken immediately by ground handling staff to reduce delays, once the risk of delays and potential delay propagation is identified. The availability of detailed operating data can help airlines identify the root delay causes from complex connections among aircraft, flight/cabin crew and passengers. In addition, these operating data also shed some light on the future development of aircraft routing algorithms in order to consider explicitly stochastic disruptions and delay propagation in airline schedule planning.     

波导中带帽圆柱壳的声辐射快速预报(英文)

In order to predict acoustic radiation from a structure in waveguide, a method based on wave superposition is proposed, in which the free-space Green's function is used to match the strength of equivalent sources. In addition, in order to neglect the effect of sound reflection from boundaries, necessary treatment is conducted, which makes the method more efficient. Moreover, this method is combined with the sound propagation algorithms to predict the sound radiated from a cylindrical shell in waveguide. Numerical simulations show the effect of how reflections can be neglected if the distance between the structure and the boundary exceeds the maximum linear dimension of the structure. It also shows that the reflection from the bottom of the waveguide can be approximated by plane wave conditionally. The proposed method is more robust and efficient in computation, which can be used to predict the acoustic radiation in waveguide.     

高速公路尾随相撞事件的贝叶斯网络致因分析模型

应用上海市高速公路1104条事件数据,基于专家知识和数据融合方法建立贝叶斯网络结构;利用服从Dirichlet分布的贝叶斯方法进行参数学习;运用团树传播算法进行推理分析。研究了上海市高速公路尾随相撞事件类型与不同道路环境条件之间的关系。在验证贝叶斯网络模型的有效性后,系统分析事件致因,并提出改进措施。发现重大尾随相撞事件易发生在大中型车与小型车之间;夜间易发生大中型货车的重大尾随相撞事件,尤其是凌晨0时至6时;路表潮湿状态下的非普通路段上易发生大中型客车的重大尾随相撞事件。结果表明贝叶斯网络建模能够更好的反映事件致因因素的多维性及关联性,是交通事件致因分析的有效方法。     

T型接头的双轴压-压疲劳试验研究

裂纹在循环压缩载荷下的扩展已经被试验证实,但是对于压缩疲劳特别是多轴压缩由于难以观测因而无法准确描述,另外裂纹面载压缩载荷下出现裂纹闭合也增加了问题的复杂性。潜水器结构的大部分区域是处于压应力状态,横舱壁水平大梁端部结构的T型节点正好位于板壳和横舱壁交汇处,承受着复杂的双轴压-压疲劳循环载荷。该文通过对5组T型节点的双轴疲劳试验研究,得到了试件在压—压载荷下的裂纹萌生和扩展规律。和单轴压疲劳不同,双轴压—压疲劳伴随有短裂纹的合并行为、主导有效短裂纹行为和裂纹干涉效应。     

铝合金缺口试样疲劳寿命预测新方法研究

借鉴基于断裂力学的Walker裂纹扩展公式的形式,对主ΔSs-N方法中的裂纹扩展公式进行修正,得到一种新的考虑了平均应力影响的等效结构应力ΔSg.由于焊接结构中存在着高值残余应力,平均应力对于焊接接头的疲劳寿命影响并不显著,但对于非焊接缺口件,平均应力的影响是显著的.对11种铝合金缺口试样进行有限元分析,建立以ΔSg为参数的ΔSg-N曲线族,并对得到的数据进行二元线性回归分析,得到不同置信度下的主ΔSg-N曲线.将其与试验得到的以名义应力S和等效结构应力ΔSs为参数的ΔSs-N曲线族进行对比,发现ΔSg-N曲线存在着良好的归一性.     

超短脉冲椭圆高斯光束的自由传输

基于傅里叶变换的方法,得到了超短脉冲椭圆高斯光束在自由空间中的解析表达式．并通过例子研究了超短脉冲椭圆高斯光束的传输性质．结果表明：在传输过程中,由于横向衍射效应和时空耦合效应,导致了光束边沿的脉冲延迟、椭圆长短轴的交换,及脉冲不同位置处的图样差异等效应．     

海洋声场预报及战术应用

随着科学技术的飞速发展,对海洋声场做出合乎要求的快速精确预报显得尤为重要。射线模型、抛物线模型、简正波等模型适合于不同具体的海洋声场环境,这些传播模型可以实现声场数值预报的实时性。基于上述模型建立的海洋声场预报系统及对其战术应用进行的研究,对声呐的设计、使用及舰艇作战有着重要的意义。本文在上述模型基础上利用Matlab和Fortran Powerstation工具建立了海洋声场预报系统,使用声场预报系统对典型的海洋环境,即海洋锋、涡漩的声场能量传播规律进行了研究,并提出了在反潜作战中对海洋锋、涡漩、深海会聚区和影区等海洋环境的战术应用。     

考虑出行者行为的多重网络拥堵风险传播模型

城市道路交通拥堵风险传播过程受拥堵预警信息、出行者行为特性及居民出行流量分布等诸多因素影响.本文提出包括道路子网、信息子网和出行子网的多重网络模型,应用改进的UAU-SIR(Unaware-Aware-Unaware-Susceptible-Infective-Recovered)模型,探讨多重网络预警信息下的城市道路...     

动态交通分配问题研究回顾与展望

动态交通分配(Dynamic Traffic Assignment，DTA)理论是智能交通系统中最重要的关键技 术基础之一，也是当前交通科学中最活跃的研究领域之一，其模型可以广泛应用于离线的交通规 划及政策评估和在线的智能交通系统应用。本文首先回顾了DTA理论50年来的发展历程，总结 了不同发展阶段形成的重要理论和方法。其次介绍了DTA问题的两个基本构成：出行选择准则 和交通流传播模型，指出这两个基本组成部分通过走行时间函数(或阻抗函数)来关联，并总结了 DTA 问题中主要的出行选择准则、主要的交通流传播模型、重点关注的交通行为、走行时间函 数。依据出行者的出行选择内容、交通状况掌握、出行需求弹性、出行决策时间跨度以及用户类 型等对动态交通分配问题进行分类，并详细比较分析不同类型动态交通分配问题之间的差异。 进一步，介绍了DTA问题主要的解析模型，依据时间是否连续和使用的决策变量分别对DTA模 型进行分类，并总结了不同类型DTA模型的主要优缺点。介绍了不同出行选择准则下DTA问题 的主要求解方法，并评述求解方法的收敛性、效率等。此外，还概述了DTA模型在交通规划、交通 政策评估、交通控制与管理等方面的应用。最后，对DTA理论的进一步发展进行展望，指出DTA 理论和方法可以在5方面取得突破：动态网络加载模型的高效计算方法和性态良好的动态阻抗函 数，大规模交通网络上DTA问题的有效求解算法，超级网络上基于活动链的DTA模型，DTA模型 在交通管理与控制中的应用，未来智能网联环境下DTA模型及其应用。