GM(1,1)预测模型的两阶段优化方案及其在交通量预测中的应用

GM(1，1)模型是灰色系统理论中的核心，已经得到广泛应用。章提出了GM(1，1)预测模型的两阶段优化方案，经比较，预测模型结果明显优于常规GM(1．1)模型。将改进的GM(1．1)模型用于交通量预测，预测效果较好。将等维递推处理技术应用于预测模型中，还可进一步提高该模型的预测精度和实用性。     

含中心裂纹有限加筋板应力强度因子的计算精度评估

文章首先对含中心裂纹有限加筋板应力强度因子的计算结果进行了对比分析,然后通过对结点位移的解析解和有限单元法中的计算表达式的分析,提出一个用于评估应力强度因子计算精度的参数,并通过算例和文献结论分析说明该参数是一个计算简便的、有工程实际意义的参数.可以用于加筋板应力强度因子的计算精度评估.     

基于实船与模型试验的船舶操纵性相关性分析

操纵性相关性分析一直以来是受到国内外学者的关注,但是由于其复杂性,至今未能很好地解决.目前,模型试验的数据往往是直接预报到实船的操纵性能,这有可能导致很大的偏差,影响船舶的航行安全.本文针对育鲲轮,进行了实船试验与模型试验的相关性分析.首先进行了实船回转试验和z形试验,测试了该船的操纵性.通过试验数据分析获得了纵距、横距、战术直径、回转直径、超越角等操纵性特征参数,试验过程中也进行了船舶姿态,如纵、横摇以及主机功率的测试.通过实船回转试验发现,主机功率比直航时增大了大约15%,这给船舶设计提供了参考.然后,采用6m长左右的模型也进行了相同试验的测试,电机转速与实船主机转速相似,且一直保持不变.最后,分析比较了模型所测数据与实船数据,发现特征参数误差基本都在10%以内.说明模型长度、螺旋桨的模拟等模型试验方案基本可行.     

不同航速下船体波浪诱导运动和载荷计算研究

应用三维时域水动力理论,以挪威船级社（DNV）的WASIM程序系统作为主要工具,分析研究了一条在国际航线上航行的某一集装箱船的水动力特性,包括船体运动与波浪诱导载荷的规律,给出了不同航速下的船体运动特性和剖面诱导载荷百年一遇长期预报结果,深入分析了船体的航速效应,为船体设计中船体波浪载荷设计提供了参考依据。     

基于MATLAB的ANFIS网络在水运货运量预测中的应用

阐述了自适应模糊推理系统(Adaptive Network—based Fuzzy Inference System，ANFIS)网络，提出了水运货运量预测的ANFIS网络预测模型．以MATLAB为工具，以1985～2001年我国水运货运量为训练样本；2002年我国水运货运量为校验样本，对网络进行训练后，预测了2003～2010年我国水运货运量．估算结果表明，同BP神经网络模型相比，此模型具有更高的准确性．     

Regularization method and immune genetic algorithm for inverse problems of ship maneuvering

Ship maneuverability, in the field of ship engineering, is often predicted by maneuvering motion group MMG) mathematical model. Then it is necessary to determine hydrodynamic coefficients and interaction force coefficients of the model. Based on the data of free running model test, the problem for obtaining these coefficients is called inverse one. For the inverse problem, ill-oposedness is inherent, nonlinearity and great computation happen,and the computation is also insensitive, unstable and time-consuming. In the paper, a regnlarization method is introduced to solve ill-posed problem and genetic algorithm is used for nonlinear motion of ship maneuvering. In addition, the immunity is applied to solve the prematurity, to promote the global searching ability and to increase the converging speed. The combination of regnlarization method and immune genetic algorithm(RIGA) applied in MMG mathematical model, showed rapid converging speed and good stability.     

西坡刚架拱桥设计

介绍了刚架拱桥的特点并通过上、下部结构计算，提出了对拱腿水平力影响线图和斜撑水平力影响线图进行合成简化计算。     

基于Visual Basic 6．0的Auto CAD图形数据交互技术

介绍了利用VisualBasic 6．0的强大功能,对AutoCAD进行二次开发，提取图形对象数据，来修改图形对象．此方法运用于船舶设计中，通过修改船体型线来满足设计者的要求．同时作者也提出了该方法对船舶性能计算的实用性，为人机交互式地进行船舶设计提供了简易、快捷、有效的方法和途径．     

Parallel processing based on ship maneuvering in identification of interaction force coefficients

The parallel processing based on the free running model test was adopted to predict the interac-tion force coefficients (flow straightening coefficient and wake fraction) of ship maneuvering. And the multi-population genetic algorithm (MPGA) based on real coding that can contemporarily process the data of freerunning model and simulation of ship maneuvering was applied to solve the problem. Accordingly the optimalindividual was obtained using the method of genetic algorithm. The parallel processing of multi-populationsolved the prematurity in the identification for single population, meanwhile, the parallel processing of the dataof ship maneuvering (turning motion and zigzag motion) is an attempt to solve the coefficient drift problem.In order to validate the method, the interaction force coefficients were verified by the procedure and thesecoefficients measured were compared with those ones identified. The maximum error is less than 5%, and theidentification is an effective method.