港口航行环境安全组合评价模式

为解决对同一事物采用不同的安全评价方法而产生的结论多样性问题,提出了组合评价模式。以中国沿海10个港口的航行环境安全程度为例,采用主成分分析法、因子分析法、TOPSIS法、模糊综合评价法和灰色综合评价法,得到了5组不同的排序结果,再用序号总和理论与众数理论对这5种方法所得结果作组合处理,得到惟一排序结论。该结论与客观实际相符,优于任何单一方法的排序结果,得到了船长们的认可,表明使用组合评价模式,有助于弥补单一评价方法的缺陷。     

Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

Quantified risk assessment （QRA） needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management （MMEM） theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes： a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation （GMO） model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart （operation dimension）, which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment （FSA） and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization （IMO） is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.     

北极水域船舶航行风险管理研究现状分析

全球气候变暖使得北极水域作为航运通道成为可能,作为连接中欧的最短海上运输通道,北极航道正融入我国"冰上丝绸之路"战略.然而北极水域通航环境复杂多变、脆弱敏感,给船舶安全带来了很多非传统安全风险.为明晰目前北极水域船舶航行风险管理现状,通过对北极船舶航行风险管理文献进行梳理,从风险管理的公约/规则和技术2个方面分析和探讨当前的研究现状和未来的研究方向.研究表明,北极水域船舶航行风险管理研究技术受限于数据的缺乏和不确定性.随着未来北极基础建设和装备的研发,基于模型的、静态的、层次的风险识别、分析和评估研究将朝着数据化、动态化、系统化的风险预测、预报和预警的方向发展.