基于前景理论的实时信息下路径选择模型研究

首先介绍了研究路径选择问题的传统理论——“期望效用理论”的不足,对“前景理论”进行了简单概述。在“前景理论”的基本框架下,研究实时交通信息影响下的路径选择问题,分析了出行者的路径选择决策过程。通过选择参照点,建立了价值函数。利用贝叶斯理论,对预测的路径行程时间进行更新与调整。得到决策权重函数之后,建立了路径选择的动态模型。     

Optimization of isolation structure under wind load excitation and experimental study of the wind resistant bearing

The method of collaborative work between steel plate anti-wind bearing (AWB) and rubber isolation bearing is proposed to study the vibration reduction effect of isolation structure under stronger wind load, and the function mechanism is explained. Based on a practical project, three kinds of schemes with different isolation layers are put forward, the finite element software ETABS is used for time history analysis, and comparison is made on the seismic response of different isolated structure and aseismic structure. Comparison result shows that the isolation layer with rubber bearing and AWB can work reasonably, but further optimization on the designed parameters is needed. Moreover, the design value of horizontal bearing capacity of lead rubber bearing (LRB) is appropriate to be close to the seismic isolation layer under wind load excitation. Finally, numerical simulation and comparative analysis of shear test of the AWB are conducted. With a very small yield displacement and yield strength over 80% of the set of horizontal bearing capacity, the AWB is validated to satisfy the working conditions which provide the horizontal bearing capacity under normal operating conditions and designed earthquake. The AWB yields and malfunctions, when the maximum displacement is less than the displacement of the isolation layer.     

基于前景理论的出发时刻选择模型研究

介绍了研究出行者出行选择问题的传统理论——“期望效用理论”的不足,分析了“前景理论”的基本思想和结构框架。基于前景理论,以实时交通信息影响下的日常上班出行为研究对象,具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。选择到达目的地的时刻作为参照点,确定了价值函数。通过对可供出行者选择的时间范围进行分段,研究了在不同时段出发,出行者如何预测路径的行程时间。出行者将选择可获得最大价值的时刻作为出发时刻,以此为目标建立了出发时刻的选择模型。通过设定到达目的地时刻的满意区间,研究了出行者下次出行是否改变和将如何改变出发时刻。