Uncertainty in the context of highway appraisal

Transport planning is based on traffic forecasts which are subject to great uncertainties. These uncertainties have generally been ignored or, at least, not explicitly included in the planning process. This paper describes the principles behind the estimation of the uncertainty (or range of error) of the forecasts of a traffic model and discusses the means by which this information can be absorbed into the decision-making in transport planning projects. These principles have been applied to the appraisal of a British highway project and throughout the paper reference is made to this project in order to illustrate the results of the practical application of an explicit treatment of uncertainty. It is believed that this approach can and should be developed for application in most areas of transport planning, leading inevitably to an improvement in the quality of the decisions taken.     

Assessing motorist behavior during flash floods in Tucson,Arizona

Transportation - Weather events often force motorists to drive in unsafe conditions or alter travel plans. Both decisions are imbued with costs that drivers may minimize by developing adaptation...     

Adapting to Catch Shares: Perspectives of West Coast Groundfish Trawl Participants

Abstract

Catch share programs are used in fisheries management to meet goals such as species recovery, overcapacity reduction, and economic efficiency. Anticipated impacts include fleet consolidation, infrastructure reduction, and social disruption within communities. The Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery Social Study (PCGFSS) aims to understand social changes related to the recently implemented West Coast Groundfish Trawl Catch Share Program. In this article, we use a subset of PCGFSS data to explore the ways remaining fishery participants have thus far adapted to catch shares. While some vessels have left the fishery, we found that many participants are adapting to this catch shares program despite challenges. Quota leasing strategies, fishery diversification, gear innovation, and community quota funds are some of the tools participants are using to continue operating under the catch shares program. These early challenges and adaptations to the catch share program are worthy of continued tracking, as researchers, managers, and fishing communities, would benefit by considering first-hand perspectives of the on-the-ground realities of harvesting groundfish in the rationalized fishery.     

A Comprehensive Method for Assessing Marine Resource Governance: Case Study in Kāne‘ohe Bay,Hawai‘i

A recent metaanalysis identified certain management attributes that are associated with successful management of threshold-based systems. However, high variance among case studies indicates that these attributes do not guarantee good conservation outcomes, suggesting that additional factors may be at play. To better understand these additional factors, we compiled a list of effective governance attributes from the literature, and developed guidance for systematically evaluating their presence, absence, and the extent to which each attribute is actually manifested in a given case study. We also examine the distribution of rights and responsibilities within a system, and the resulting impacts on stewardship incentives. Here we present the results of this analysis as applied to Kāneohe Bay, Hawai‘i. Our results confirm that absent or incomplete effective governance attributes can negatively impact conservation outcomes. In Kāneohe Bay, a public-private partnership temporarily compensated for gaps and weaknesses in the governance system, thereby creating conditions conducive to successfully reducing populations of invasive algae. However, this partnership has since dissolved and current capacity to address this and other issues in this system is again lacking. Failure to fix governance weaknesses may compromise the continued health and functioning of the Kāne'ohe Bay system.     

Crew in the West Coast Groundfish Catch Share Program: Changes in Compensation and Job Satisfaction

Abstract

Catch share programs can have far-reaching effects on coastal communities and the people that rely on fishing income, including crew members. Analysis of management actions affecting crew wages and well-being is often limited due to a dearth of available data. We examine crew-related outcomes during the first six years of the West Coast Groundfish Trawl Catch Share Program using two unique datasets – a mandatory economic survey and a voluntary social science study. We find that impacts on crew compensation differ from other catch share programs due to prior conditions of the fishery and also vary by the target species within the program. The median number of crew positions per vessel increased slightly, annual crew days decreased, and crew wage as a percentage of revenue was nearly unchanged, even with the introduction of new costs. Median daily crew compensation increased from $514 per day to $776 after implementation of catch shares and annual compensation increased from $33 thousand to $39 thousand. Many crew members expressed a lack of support for the program and job satisfaction did not rise with increased wages and fewer days at sea, indicating that job satisfaction is likely influenced by more than compensation and effort.     

Fisheries Governance Affecting Conservation Outcomes in the United States and European Union

Abstract

Fisheries management in the USA, as governed by the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA), has been decidedly more successful at meeting its conservation goals than has fisheries management in the EU, as governed by the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). In an effort to explain the different outcomes in these two systems that share many management attributes, we evaluated them against a list of effective governance attributes gleaned from the literature. We also examined the distribution of rights and responsibilities within each system, and the resulting stewardship incentives. Five effective governance attributes are fully realized under the MSA but have historically been absent from the CFP system: adequate regulatory authority, effective enforcement mechanisms, science-based decision-making, conservation-oriented goals and clear objectives, and directives. These governance system gaps, along with uneven distributions of rights, responsibilities, and incentives, may be responsible for the observed difference in conservation outcomes.     

Forecasting passenger travel demand — international aspects

The differing demand forecasting approaches adopted on a variety of European international travel studies are described in this paper. These include four models used on the studies of the Paris-Brussels-Cologne/Amsterdam high speed rail line, the model used in appraising the proposed Channel Tunnel rail services and the EC TASC model system. Contrasting features of these forecasting procedures are highlighted.