Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

Estimation of the effects of aircraft noise on residential satisfaction

This study assesses the effects of aircraft noise on residential satisfaction, an important indicator of subjective well-being. A structural equation model is specified that estimates the relationships between objective variables, noise annoyance variables and residential satisfaction. Secondary data-analysis is used to estimate the model. The survey was conducted in 1996/1997 among the population living within a 25-km radius of Amsterdam Schiphol, the largest airport in the Netherlands. The effect of aircraft noise annoyance is found to be relatively small. In addition, the objective level of aircraft noise exposure is found to be a better predictor of residential satisfaction than its subjective counterpart. The most important determinants of residential satisfaction are found to be road traffic noise annoyance, age and neighbor noise annoyance.     

Shipping inspections,detentions, and incidents: an empirical analysis of risk dimensions

ABSTRACT

Inspections play a key role in keeping vessels safe. Inspection authorities employ different policies to decide which vessels to inspect, including type of vessel, age, and flag. Attention for vessel history is usually restricted only to past detentions. This paper demonstrates that the correlation between the probabilities of detention and (very serious and serious) incidents is very low and that proactive prevention of future incidents is improved by accounting for both risk dimensions, that is, by combining past incident and detention information for targeting high-risk vessels for inspection. Five combined methods are presented to classify vessels based on these two risk dimensions, each of which involves extensive sets of factors. These combined classification methods have predictive power for future incidents. Depending on the applied inspection rate, incorporation of incident risk improves inspection hit rates for vessels with future incidents by 30–50% compared to using only detention information. It is recommended to focus on vessels where both risks are relatively high. A practical example shows how the methods can be applied for inspection selection and for prioritizing inspection areas defined in terms of eight risk domains that include collisions, groundings, engine and hull failures, loss of life, fire, and pollution.     

Comprehensive Review of the Maritime Safety Regimes: Present Status and Recommendations for Improvements

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive review of the maritime safety regimes and provides recommendations on how to improve the system. The results show a complex legal framework which generates a high amount of inspections and overlapping of inspection areas where no cross‐recognition is established by the various stakeholders. While the safety system seems to be successful in eliminating substandard vessels and while average insurance claims costs are substantially lower for inspected vessels than non‐inspected vessels, the results indicate that the economic conditions of the shipping market also have an effect on safety quality besides the frequency of inspections. No significant differences can be found between industry inspections and port state control inspections with respect to decreasing the probability of casualty. The system could be made more effective by combining data sources on inspections and using them respectively to improve risk profiling and to decrease the frequency of inspections performed on ship types such as tankers. The results further indicate a lack of proper implementation of the International Safety Management Code (ISM code) and conventions with reference to working and living conditions of crew (ILO 147). A revision of the ISM code and more emphasis on enforcement of ILO 147 could further enhance the level of safety at sea. The authors would like to thank several inspection regimes for their cooperation in providing inspection data and in allowing the observation of surveys and inspections on 26 vessels. In addition, the authors would like to acknowledge the data providers for the casualty data, Clarksons for the economic data as well as two P&I Clubs in making data on insurance claims available.     

Assessing land‐use regulations in coastal wetlands: The case of the long point area,lake Erie,Ontario

Abstract

The first comprehensive attempt at development control along the Canadian Great Lakes shoreline was the 1976 lakeshore regulation policy adopted by the Regional Municipality of Haldimand‐Norfolk on the north Lake Erie shore. This innovative strategy was initiated at the municipal level as a component of the regional land‐use planning process. Determination of efficiency and effectiveness of the policy implementation process is based on analysis of permit approval files. All development applications submitted between 1976 and 1980 in the Turkey Point and Long Point Peninsulas are evaluated. Those areas, the most popular cottaging areas in the region, are most susceptible to flood and erosion hazards. Of the total applications submitted during the four‐year study period, 37 percent were in these areas. The policy was ineffective and inefficient in controlling development in the two peninsulas. Applications were approved in the majority of cases, despite regulatory prohibition of developments in hazard‐susceptible areas. There were lengthy decision‐making delays, often exceeding one year, and frequent violations of regulatory procedures. Recommendations are suggested to improve policy implementation.     

A global view on port state control: econometric analysis of the differences across port state control regimes

This article is based on 183 819 port state control inspections from various port state control regimes for the time frame 1999 to 2004. Using binary logistic regression, we establish the differences of port state control inspections across several regimes, even though theory predicts there should be no significant differences in treatments of vessels. The results indicate that the differences towards the probability of detention are merely reflected by the differences in port states and the treatment of deficiencies and not necessarily by age, size, flag, class or owner as perceived by the industry and regulators. The analysis further shows that some differences can be found across ship types and regimes and that there appears to be room for further harmonization in the area of port state control.     

Evaluation of safety and environmental risk at individual ship and company level

Whereas current risk profiling methods used in the maritime sector largely rely on detention risk, we extend them by considering various risk dimensions and by evaluating a wide range of risk factors including pollution and damage costs. Risk factors include ship particulars such as vessel type and the nature of companies and owners, as well as historical information on past accidents, inspections, and changes of particulars. We present methods to summarize and visualize the various risk dimensions paying particular attention to the identification of potentially risky companies. The results are obtained by combining unique data sets with information on ship arrivals, inspections, and accidents covering 2006-2010.     

Global ship risk profiles: Safety and the marine environment

This article uses visualization techniques to investigate global ship risk profiles and their changes over time. With a unique data set of 49,151 observations, the authors link changes in risk profiles to legislative developments and industry actions, as well as identify areas prone to general safety, loss of life, and pollution risks. Improved risk profiles over time have resulted from legislative measures, including the International Safety Management Code, the Oil Pollution Act, amendments to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, and the introduction of port state controls and industry vetting inspections.     

新型塑料零件给行人提供碰撞保护

这种被称之为"保险杠下防撞杆(LBS)"的功能性零件由巴斯夫开发的碰撞保护材料UltramidB3WG6 CR(玻璃纤维增强塑料PA6)制成.LBS重量约为1kg,长约1m,安装在车前部保险杠下面,可在车辆与行人发生碰撞时有效降低严重膝部伤害的风险.