Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

船舶事故的特点与原因分析

文章在分析船舶运行环境特点的基础上,从事故船舶种类、事故类型、故障部位、故障模式、事故原因等几个方面综合探讨了船舶事故的特点,并从系统安全工程学的角度对船舶事故的影响因素进行了分析,为预防船舶事故提供了安全管理的重点,最后展望了船舶事故未来的研究方向。     

Large oil tankers and the Baltic marine environment: A statistical survey

The short Baltic export route for Russian oil is an attractive source of supply for the European energy market. The article examines the Russian oil export trade in the Baltic based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from 2005 matched with supplementary data. The first part of the article gives a survey of activities and characteristics of 261 large crude oil tankers, their flag states and owner countries. The second part views the data in the context of accidental oil spill risk. Greek and Russian owners are leading carriers in this trade. Russia plays a double leading role as oil exporter and shipowning country, securing major cargo shares for nationally owned vessels, while also giving a preferential spot in the trade to Greek owners. Where environmental aspects are concerned, previous research has linked vessel characteristics with the risk of casualty. Knowledge of flag, age, ownership and activity levels adds useful information about environmental risk. The data show that flags associated with very high casualty or detention probabilities were represented by 18% of the activity in this trade. Older vessels have a similar share, and at this particular time probably represent the more serious threat of accidental oil spills.     

海监船与渔政船主尺度单变量回归分析

文章分析了我国海监船和渔政船发展现状及发展趋势,通过整理分析了相关的船型数据资料,利用逐步回归的数学方法建立了海监船和渔政船主尺度的数学模型,并对数学统计模型进行了实船验证。数学模型的建立有利于分析和掌握海监船与渔政船主尺度变化的规律,为报价设计和初步设计提供了科学依据。     

Shallow water effects on high order statistics and probability distributions of wave run-ups along FPSO broadside

Ship hydrodynamics in shallow water becomes especially complicated since the nonlinearities in both the incident waves and the wave–hull interactions will be affected by the water depth. For a ship-shaped Floating Production, Storage and Offloading unit (FPSO) operating in shallow water, the broadside often suffers from the wave run-up and green water incidents in non-collinear harsh ocean environments. By applying the methods of ordinary moments and L-moments and the empirical Weibull distribution on the data measured in a series of model experiments, the high order statistics and the exceedance probability distribution of the run-ups along the FPSO broadside are evaluated and the effects of the shallow water depth and the incident environments are analyzed in this paper. It is seen that both the incident waves and the wave run-ups are non-Gaussian in shallow water and that the wave run-up characteristics are significantly influenced by the water depth and the incident environments, while the contribution due to the vessel vertical motions is negligible for the FPSO used in this study. The exceedance probabilities of the wave run-ups show that the broadside will be more likely to suffer from serious wave run-up and green water incidents in shallower water, in a higher incident wave and a non-collinear environment, especially so at locations around the FPSO midship within a range of 3/8L_pp ∼ 5/8L_pp. The dependency of the shape and scale parameters of the wave run-up probability distributions on the locations and the environment is quantified by model tests. The present study leads to the conclusion that the wave run-up characteristics and the shallow water effects should be considered carefully in determining the wave loads and the freeboard of a large FPSO in non-collinear environment conditions.     

Undeclared dangerous goods — Risk implications for maritime transport

Dangerous goods that have not been correctly declared when offered for transport have contributed to some serious accidents at sea. Safe handling, stowage, and segregation of packaged dangerous goods cannot be carried out if there is no knowledge of the presence of dangerous goods inside the cargo transport unit (container and/or trailer), or if the goods have been incorrectly declared. Although undeclared dangerous goods are recognized as a safety issue in the shipping industry, there is little information available on the extent of the risk involved. The study described in this paper was carried out to investigate the extent and potential consequences of the maritime transport of undeclared dangerous goods. Dangerous goods incident and inspection reports and ship casualty data were reviewed and analysed. A generic qualitative model was constructed to illustrate contributing factors and potential consequences in incidents involving undeclared dangerous goods.     

基于风险的船体结构无损检测功能的分级

基于船舶结构传统的经验基础上的检测方法不但带来较高的费用,而且还会产生不必要的检测.针对上述问题,本文提出了基于风险的船舶结构无损检测功能分级方法,采用检测概率、错误识别概率和裂纹出现概率度量检测功能,并修正了错误识别概率的取值范围.根据风险值对无损检测功能进行了分级,研究了风险值随检测概率、错误识别概率和裂纹出现概率的变化规律,并分析了风险值对检测费用、维修费用及失效费用的敏感性.在此基础上,将基于风险的船舶结构无损检测功能分级方法应用于优化检测策略,并用算例证明了文中所提方法的有效性.     

上海港船舶污染风险分析及防范应对措施

文中对最近13年间在上海港发生的船舶污染事故进行归类分析，指出上海港可能发生船舶污染事故的主要风险源，并针对这些船舶污染风险源，提出防范和应对措施，以期防止上海港船舶污染事故的发生。     

ANFIS model for assessing near-miss risk during tanker shipping voyages

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to predict the risk of near-miss incidents during tanker shipping voyages. Firstly, near-miss incidents recorded by a global tanker shipping management company were analysed. Four variables—type of operation, vessel’s location, on-board position, and harm potential were selected to train and predict the risk levels of near-miss incidents. The selected variables were found to be correlated with the observed frequency at three risk levels, namely low, medium and high. Gravity factor (GF) was calculated using the frequency of the categories in each variable and their associated risk levels. The calculated GF values and the risk levels of near-miss incidents were used as input values in the ANFIS model. Triangular, Trapezoidal and Gaussian membership functions were used. Subsequently, fuzzy logical theory and artificial neural networks were applied to train the data. Causal factors in terms of direct contributory factors, indirect contributory factors and root contributory factors to the near-miss incidents were analysed. Risk control measures were also proposed to improve safety during tanker shipping.     

船舶港口国检查常见问题及缺陷

顺利通过各国的PSC检查,保证船舶安全已经成为各船舶和相关航运企业的一项重要任务。就作者上船工作期间所经历的船舶PSC检查方面的一些重要的常见缺陷做归纳总结,旨在保证船舶顺利通过各国的PSC检查,确保船期,提高船舶自身的安全系数。     

基于风险的船体结构检测及维护研究综述

本文简要地分析了基于风险的检测及维护的基本概念及基于风险的船体结构检测及维护研究的重要意义.分别从基于可靠性的检测及维护、基于风险的检测及维护和优化检测和维护三个层次,详细综述了国内外关于基于风险的船体结构检测及维护研究的主要成果和进展,最后指出了目前基于风险的船体结构检测及维护研究要解决的关键问题和今后的研究方向.     

Quantitative analysis of materiality in marine insurance

The ex post test of materiality is the traditional approach for a court to examine whether the non-disclosed information of the policyholder is material for a prudent underwriter. The approach of the ex post test has been questioned by the shipping industry, and amendments to the relevant clauses of the Marine Insurance Act 1906 are under discussion. In this research, the factors that significantly relate to marine incidents are determined based on the panel data through the step-wise random intercept model. The materiality of each factor can be reflected by constructing a factor-weighted risk indicator, which can be applied in the ex ante risk assessment of insured vessels. It endeavors to establish a risk index system for measuring the risk level of a ship, which can help both the underwriter and the policyholder in effective assessment of the materiality of information when they conclude the contract. A panel data of total loss incidents during the period 1999–2007 has been collected for verification of the methodology.     

The measure and decision of technical risk in the development of naval vessels

The risks in development of navy vessels were explored, The resources of technical risk in the design and development of vessels were mentioned, It was pointed that technical risk dominated the other risk components. Based on the writers＇ understanding and experience from risk analysis and risk ,nanagement to the development of a navy vessel, four measure indexes of technical risk were presented. The decision criteria and the rules corresponding to the indexes were estahlished by the statistic information,     

Maritime safety and the ISM code: a study of investigated casualties and incidents

In 1993, the International Maritime Organization adopted the International Safety Management (ISM) Code which requires all shipping companies operating certain types of vessels to establish safety management systems. Nevertheless, two decades later, maritime safety remains a concern. This article studies 94 maritime cases investigated by the Maritime Accident Investigation Branch in the UK. By providing an analysis of reported casualties and incidents, it highlights current challenges in maritime safety. For each casualty and incident, the study reviews the underlying causal factors. These causal factors are then coded according to the functional sections of the ISM Code, covering various aspects of safety management. To investigate human and organizational factors involved in the casualties and incidents, the human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS) is applied to code the same data. Finally, the relative seriousness of casualties and incidents is considered to discuss the findings from ISM Code and HFACS reviews. The study found that the main challenges pertain to the development of plans for shipboard operations, local shipboard management, and the ability of the company to verify when such practices deviate from best practices or required standards.     

高性能物探船推进动力系统配置分析

文章结合物探船的工作特点,分析比较多种推进动力系统配置。通过对已在发达国家服役的高性能物探船推进动力系统实例进行分析比较以及发展方向的探讨,为今后国内设计新型物探船动力系统提供较好的方向和思路。     

基于本质安全的深海浮式生产装置泄漏风险控制模型研究

由于各种原因导致的海上油气泄漏会引发火灾、爆炸、环境污染等重大事故发生。为此,建立基于本质安全原理和过程预防屏障分析的深海油气生产装置泄漏风险控制模型。首先采用基于本质安全方法的设计从根本上避免或消除风险,之后在各个工程阶段采取层层预防屏障对初始泄漏风险事件加以控制或减缓。将上述原理和方法应用于深海浮式生产装置,遏制了泄漏风险升级,达到了最佳的风险控制目标,实例分析证明了其正确性和可操作性。     

The overall motion induced interruptions as operability criterion for fishing vessels

A new index, namely the overall motion induced interruptions (OMII), is proposed as a seakeeping criterion for fishing vessels, to compare ships having different hull forms and dimensions by means of an only parameter, in a human centred approach, mainly related to the onboard risk level. Therefore, the first aim of the paper is to investigate the factors affecting fishing vessels’ seakeeping performances to improve them to reduce the high number of injuries occurring during fishing operations, mainly related to both risk perception and harsh weather conditions. Despite the classical approach, where motion induced interruption is determined for a certain sea state with regard to several location points, the new index accounts for all crew members’ positions on the working deck, all heading angles the vessel may experience during fishing operations, based on relevant operating scenario, and all sea states the ship may encounter in the fishing area. The influence of position, heading angles and sea states on the attained risk level is fully investigated, analysing seakeeping performances of four fishing vessels with different hull forms and dimensions. Finally, a new operability criterion is proposed, based on OMII, to investigate the influence of ship size and operating scenario on the risk of injuries during fishing operations. Main factors affecting fishing vessels’ seakeeping performances are fully discussed, paying attention to relevant correlation with ship roll natural period.     

关于小泊位靠大船问题的探讨

随着船舶大型化的快速发展,许多港口泊位常常出现不得不靠泊超出自身原设计船型的大型船舶,即＂小泊位靠大船＂的现象。通过对这种情况的分析研究,重点介绍验算码头的主尺度和按不同结构型式校核、验算其结构稳定性、强度及受力情况的方法,以便在最大限度地发挥＂小泊位＂作用的同时,保证其使用安全。     

Bulging Merchant Ships

Bulging is the process of adding a new skin to an existing ship to regain strength, reduce draft, and increase stability. A previous 1989 ASNE paper was entitled "Bulging Warships" and by its very name announced that it would not deal with applying bulges to non-military ships. This paper reviews the history of bulges being applied to merchant vessels. Bulges are most often applied to merchant vessels when the traffic is better than expected requiring a quick increase in carrying capacity or when regulatory authorities demand an increase in the stability standard to allow continued service. Rather than enduring the long and expensive process of buying a new vessel, the owner will send an existing ship into the yard to be cut and lengthened or, in the case of ferries, have more passenger spaces added topside. Such modifications cause weight and stability growth that requires additional hull strength, buoyancy, and waterplane area that only a larger dimensions hull can provide. The paper includes an appendix updating the 1987 warship bulge history and a second appendix on the post-1987 attempts to bulge modern US Navy ships.     

The role of the Classification Societies in the era of globalization: a case study

Although in the great majority of States, the inspection and certification of vessels are provided as public services, the Classification Societies continue being an essential element in maritime traffic, since the official inspections and certifications generally do not take into consideration certain structural aspects or details of vessels. The starting point is an analysis of the role of the Classification Societies on the global and local scale; a case study in a medium-size port of the European Union, the Port of the Bay of Cadiz, is presented. For the case study, an analysis has been made of 507 vessels between the years 2002 and 2008. From the statistical results, it is concluded that there tends to be a direct relationship between the age of the vessel and its classification by a particular type of Society, both with respect to the profiles of risk and to whether the society is a member of the International Association of Classification Societies. The same occurs with respect to the number of days a vessel is detained as a consequence of the Port State Control (PSC) inspections. Similar relationships between Classification Societies and vessels are observed with respect to the flags States, based on featuring in the Black List of the MoU, and with the subclassification of risks.