Costs of air pollutants from shipping: a meta-regression analysis

ABSTRACT

This study estimated the external cost of air pollution from shipping by means of a meta-regression analysis, which has not been made before. Three pollutants, which were included in most of the primary studies, were considered: nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur dioxides (SO₂) and particulate matters with a diameter of max 2.5 micrometres (PM_2.5). All primary studies included damages of health and a majority added impacts on agriculture and estimated the cost of air pollutants by transferring cost estimates from studies on costs of air emissions from transports in Europe. Different regression models and estimators were used and robust results were found of statistically significant emission elasticities of below one, i.e. total external costs increase by less than 1% when emissions increase by 1%. There was a small variation between the pollutants, with the highest elasticity for PM_2.5 and lowest for NO_x. Calculations of the marginal external cost of the pollutants showed the same pattern, with this cost being approximately six times higher for PM_2.5 than for the other pollutants. Common to all pollutants was that the marginal external cost decreases when emission increases. Another robust result was a significant increase in the cost of studies published in journals compared with other publication outlets. These findings point out some caution when transferring constant external unit cost of air pollutant from shipping, which is much applied in the literature, and the cost functions estimated in this study could thus provide a complementary transfer mechanism.     

Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one

It is often the case that the investor in the shipping sector faces the dilemma of investing in a second-hand vessel or building a new one. This happens because an active second-hand market for almost all kinds of vessels exists. We argue that one of the prime considerations for the investment decision should not be the price of the vessel per se, second-hand (SH) or newly built (NP) but

• ?(a)?the relative price ratio (SH/NP) second-hand price over the new building price and

• ?(b)?the movement of this ratio.

We investigate the determinants of this ratio across different vessel sizes in the tanker sector and show that it can be used as an effective tool in investment decision as well as in asset appraisal.

We employ monthly data between 1995 and 2006 for four different ship sizes–VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Handysize–and implement an error correction model.

The investment decision depends on a number of risk and return variables as well as the perceived speed of adjustment of the price ratio to its equilibrium level.

Overall we claim that the cyclicality of the shipping sector together with expectations formed by the agents operating in it (the entrepreneur, the ship-owner and the broker), determine the movement of the ratio and hence the decision of the entrepreneur.     

Towards comfort-optimal trajectory planning and control

ABSTRACT

This paper describes a method to analyse and evaluate different trajectory planning methods and controller types for usage in automated vehicles. Its application is shown by using a novel trajectory planning approach considering comfort aspects (based on Rapidly Exploring Random Tree (RRT)), two different controllers to follow the planned path (cascade controller and flatness based controller) and a simulation method to obtain resulting lateral vehicle accelerations. The method is used to plan and drive a trajectory through a roundabout. It can be seen that the lateral accelerations of the controller-driven vehicle are in the range of the values used for planning. However, the results of both controllers show differences in lateral deviation and in smoothness of lateral accelerations. The simulation results are then compared to real-world test drives in the same roundabout. The measured lateral accelerations are in the same range as well but show a smoother progression than the two controller models.     

2030年的卡车世界

在我演讲开始的时候,我想向大家提出这样一个问题,20年后的商用汽车会将变成什么样？其实不用多说,业内人士都很清楚这一点,未来20年商用汽车的变化会比整个20世纪商用汽车的变化还要大。     

Numerical and experimental analysis of bow flare slamming on a Ro–Ro vessel in regular oblique waves

A method for the prediction of slamming loads on ship hulls is presented and validated for a 20-knot, 120-m car carrier. A nonlinear strip theory is used to calculate the relative motions of ship and wave. The relative vertical and roll velocities for a slamming event are given as input to the slamming calculation program, which is based on a generalized two-dimensional Wagner formulation and solved by the boundary element method. The method is fast and robust. Model tests of a car carrier have been carried out in regular head, bow, and bow quartering waves of various heights. Slamming on two panels in the upper part of the bow flare has been studied. It has been found that the water pile-up around the bow due to the forward speed of the vessel significantly increases the slamming pressures. A simplified way of including this effect is presented. When the calculated slamming pressures are corrected for 3D effects, they compare well with the measured data. Since the effect of the wave elevation due to the forward speed and the effect of three-dimensional flow act in opposite directions, excluding both of them produced results that also agreed quite well with the experiments, especially for the most severe slamming events.     

Measuring the effect of low-cost carriers on regional airports' commercial revenue

This paper measures the effect of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on British regional airports' commercial revenue using panel data analysis. The evidence shows that although LCCs have significant impact on airports' commercial revenue, their contribution is smaller compared to other carriers. The empirical results indicate that holding other variables constant, on average, each additional LCC passenger boosts airport commercial revenue by £2.87, while each additional other carrier passenger raises commercial revenue by £5.59. These results are relatively stable across different models. The findings have important policy implications for aviation strategy at the regional level and beyond.     

Much Ado about Nothing? - An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry

From 2012 on, all CO₂ emissions from flights departing from or arriving at airports within the European Union have to be offset. We analyze the economic and ecological impacts that are caused by an inclusion of the aviation industry into the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS). Building on the now fixed system design we employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts of the scheme. Our results indicate that financial impacts are highly dependant on external settings, such as allowance prices and demand growth. We show that the financial burden on the aviation industry will be rather modest in the first years after the introduction of the system and therefore induce only low competition distortions. Likewise, emission reductions within air transportation will be comparably low. While aviation will induce a decline of emissions in other sectors, significant absolute reductions within air transportation can only be reached by a more restrictive system design.     

新能源汽车消费者购买意愿调查

<正>虽然政府频频出台新能源利好政策,希望刺激消费者购买欲望,但研究显示,仅靠政策单方面刺激很难完成到2020年累计销售500万辆新能源车的目标,需要地方政府、汽车OEM和电网公司共同致力于推动新能源汽车的成功发展,解决充电等难题,从根本上消除消费者的顾虑。"中国消费者对新能源汽车(NEV)的兴趣及购买意愿仍不足以实现中国政府新能源汽车销量的目标。"中国是全球最大的汽车市场,而汽车业如火如荼的发展也同时造成了大城市的严重交通拥堵和空气污染。随着城镇化进程的不断推进(城镇人口有望从2014年     

Efficient calculation of slamming pressures on ships in irregular seas

An efficient method for calculation of the slamming pressures on ship hulls in irregular waves is presented and validated for a 290-m cruise ship. Nonlinear strip theory was used to calculate the ship–wave relative motions. The relative vertical and roll velocities for a slamming event were input to the slamming calculation program, which used a two-dimensional boundary element method (BEM) based on the generalized 2D Wagner formulation presented by Zhao et al. To improve the calculation efficiency, the method was divided into two separate steps. In the first step, the velocity potentials were calculated for unit relative velocities between the section and the water. In the next step, these precalculated velocity potentials were used together with the real relative velocities experienced in a seaway to calculate the slamming pressure and total slamming force on the section. This saved considerable computer time for slamming calculations in irregular waves, without significant loss of accuracy. The calculated slamming pressures on the bow flare of the cruise ship agreed quite well with the measured values, at least for time windows in which the calculated and experimental ship motions agreed well. A simplified method for calculation of the instantaneous peak pressure on each ship section in irregular waves is also presented. The method was used to identify slamming events to be analyzed with the more refined 2D BEM method, but comparisons with measured values indicate that the method may also be used for a quick quantitative assessment of the maximum slamming pressures.