列车运行数字仿真及其在技术标准优化建模中的应用

本文详细论述了列车运行数字仿真模型和基于仿真计算结果的运营指标的建模方法，并给出了仿真逄例也结果分析，以列车运行数字仿真的计算结果作为建模的基础数据具有一致性和可比性强，模型可靠且精度高的特点。本研究为铁路主要技术标准综合优化的推广使用奠定了必要的基础，具有广阔的应用前景。     

Regulatory reform and freight mode choice

Reform of trucking Vehicle Weights and Dimensions (VWD) regulations in Canada is now underway. The effect these reforms will have on the freight transportation industry are only recently the subject of research. This paper is part of this new research effort, aimed at understanding how regulatory reform in the trucking sector will affect the existing competitive relationship between trucks and the railways. The paper presents the results of study and research into modelling the relationship between mode choice and the service characteristics that are affected by VWD reform.Using several periods of data, a series of econometric models are developed which help to elucidate the relative relationships between the mode service characteristics for both of the principal interprovincial freight modes. A technique is developed and presented to model railway user costs in order to overcome the complex and often unrepresentable pricing activities of Canadian railways.The strength of the developed econometric models is presented, including their significance and statistical reliability. This is further reinforced by the similarities exhibited by all the models in the series. The selected model is applied to predict market service responses required of the railway industry in order to compete with the trucking sector now adapting to the new regulations.The impact of the newly implemented vehicle weight and dimension reform on the rail transportation industry is analyzed and railway industry improvements aimed at maintaining its market share are presented. The results predicted by the model show that railway user cost reductions should be moderate, and likely less than the level of inflation over the period of time when trucking converts its fleet to take advantage of the new regulations.Abbreviations AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials - CCMTA Canadian Conference of Motor Transport Administrators - EPI End products, inedible commodity classification - GVW Gross Vehicle Weight - NA 1988 VWD National Agreement - RTAC Roads and Transportation Association of Canada - VWD Vehicle Weight(s) and Dimension(s) - WA 1988 VWD Western Agreement     

汽车防追尾碰撞数学模型研究

为了提高车辆在高速行驶状态下的主动安全性能,研究了处于追尾行驶状态的本车与前车的运动学特征;针对前车的不同运动状态分别推导出了跟车距离的计算模型并分析了模型中3个关键参数的随机性和动态性,对制动迟滞时间提出了基于模糊推理的确定方法,对本车制动减速度和前车的运动加速度提出了比较实用的动态测算公式;另外,研究了防追尾碰撞的控制与执行,建立了动态调整安全制动停车距离的神经网络模型,提出了基于危险裕度判别的安全控制方法。     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Continuum theory for pedestrian traffic flow: Local route choice modelling and its implications

This contribution puts forward a novel multi-class continuum model that captures some of the key dynamic features of pedestrian flows. It considers route choice behaviour on both the strategic (pre-trip) and tactical (en-route) level. To achieve this, we put forward a class-specific equilibrium direction relation of the pedestrians, which is governed by two parts: one part describing the global route choice, which is pre-determined based on the expectations of the pedestrians, and one part describing the local route choice, which is a density-gradient dependent term that reflects local adaptations based on prevailing flow conditions.Including the local route choice term in the multi-class model causes first of all dispersion of the flow: pedestrians will move away from high density areas in order to reduce their overall walking costs. Second of all, for the crossing flow and bi-directional flow cases, local route choice causes well known self-organised patterns to emerge (i.e. diagonal stripes and bi-directional lanes). We study under which demand conditions self-organisation occurs and fails, as well as what the impact is of the choices of the different model parameters. In particular, the differences in the weights reflecting the impact of the own and the other classes appear to have a very strong impact on the self-organisation process.     

The determinants of long distance travel in Great Britain

This study analyses of the determinants of long distance travel in Great Britain using data from the 1995-2006 National Travel Surveys (NTSs). The main objective is to determine the effects of socio-economic, demographic and geographic factors on long distance travel. The estimated models express the distance travelled for long distance journeys as a function of income, gender, age, employment status, household characteristics, area of residence, size of municipality, type of residence and length of time living in the area. A time trend is also included to capture common changes in long distance travel over time not included in the explanatory variables. Separate models are estimated for total travel, travel by each of four modes (car, rail, coach and air), travel by five purposes (business, commuting, leisure, holiday and visiting friends and relatives (VFRs)) and two journey lengths (<150 miles and 150+ miles one way), as well as the 35 mode-purpose-distance combinations.The results show that long distance travel is strongly related to income: air is most income-elastic, followed by rail, car and finally coach. This is the case for most journey purposes and distance bands. Notable is the substantial difference in income elasticities for rail for business/commuting as opposed to holiday/leisure/VFR. In addition, the income elasticity for coach travel is very low, and zero for the majority of purpose-distance bands, suggesting coach travel to be an inferior mode in comparison to car, rail and air. Regarding journey distance, we find that longer distance journeys are more income elastic than shorter journeys.For total long distance travel, the study indicates that women travel less than men, the elderly less than younger people, the employed and students more than others, those in one adult households more than those in larger households and those in households with children less than those without. Long distance travel is also lowest for individuals living in London and greatest for those in the South West, and increases as the size of the municipality declines.     

Definition of wind blowers for vehicles testing at chassis-dyno facilities using a CFD approach

The need to increase measurement accuracy of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions in vehicles is forcing the market to develop chassis-dyno test cells that reproduce on-road conditions realistically.Air-cooling is key to vehicle performance. It is therefore critical that the design of a test cell guarantees realistic cooling of all vehicle components, as important errors in fuel consumption and emissions measurements may otherwise arise. In a test-room, a blower placed in front of the vehicle supplies the cooling air. While there are some guidelines in the literature for the selection of fans required for emissions measurements for standard driving cycles, the information for designing the air supply system for specific tests in other areas is scarce.New Real Driving Emissions (RDE) legislation will force manufacturers to perform on-road measurements of pollutants. This represents a significant challenge due to the variability of conditions coming from non-controlled parameters. In order to optimize vehicles, different tests are performed in cells equipped with a chassis-dyno where the on-road flow field around the vehicle is reproduced as closely as possible.This work provides some guidelines for the definition of the airflow supply system of chassis-dyno facilities for vehicle optimization tests, based on a CFD analysis of the flow characteristics around the vehicle. By comparison with the solution obtained for a vehicle in real road driving conditions, the exit section of the blower and the distance between the blower exit and the car that best reproduce realistic on-road flow conditions in a test room are determined.     

Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour

Three weather sensitive models are used to explore the relationship between weather and home-based work trips within the City of Toronto, focusing on active modes of transportation. The data are restricted to non-captive commuters who have the option of selecting among five basic modes of auto driver, auto passenger, transit, bike and walk. Daily trip rates in various weather conditions are assessed. Overall, the results confirm that impact of weather on active modes of transportation is significant enough to deserve attention at the research, data collection and planning levels.     

Conflict-free arrival and departure trajectory planning for parallel runway with advanced point-merge system

In this paper, an efficient trajectory planning system is proposed to solve the integration of arrivals and departures on parallel runways with a novel route network system. Our first effort is made in designing an advanced Point Merge (PM) route network named Multi-Level Point Merge (ML-PM) to meet the requirements of parallel runway operations. Then, more efforts are paid on finding a complete and efficient framework capable of dynamically modelling the integration of arrival and departure trajectories on parallel runways, modelling the conflict detection and resolution in presence of curved trajectory and radius-to-fix merging process. After that, a suitable mathematical optimization formulation is built up. Receding Horizon Control (RHC) and Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithms are proposed to search the near-optimal solution for the large scale trajectories in routine dense operations. Taking Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) as a study case, the experimental results show that our system shows good performances on the management of arrivals and departures. It can automatically solve all the potential conflicts in presence of dense traffic flows. With its unique ML-PM route network, it can realize a shorter flying time and a near-Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) descent for arrival aircraft, an economical climbing for departure aircraft, an easier runway allocation together with trajectory control solutions. It shows a good and dynamic sequencing efficiency in Terminal Manoeuvring Area (TMA). In mixed ML-PM mode, under tested conditions, our proposed system can increase throughput at BCIA around 26%, compared with baseline. The methodology defined here could be easily applied to airports worldwide.     

The influence of fully nonlinear wave forces on aero-hydro-elastic calculations of monopile wind turbines

The response of an offshore wind turbine tower and its monopile foundation has been investigated when exposed to linear and fully nonlinear irregular waves on four different water depths. The investigation focuses on the consequences of including full nonlinearity in the wave kinematics. The linear and nonlinear irregular wave realizations are calculated using the fully nonlinear potential flow wave model OceanWave3D [1]. The linear and nonlinear wave realizations are compared using both a static analysis on a fixed monopile and dynamic calculations with the aeroelastic code Flex5 [2]. The conclusion from this analysis is that linear wave theory is generally sufficient for estimating the fatigue loading, but wave nonlinearity is important in determining the ultimate design loads.