基于随机森林结合前向序列选择算法的铁路隧道防水板检测数据关键影响因素识别北大核心

针对参数特征复杂度高的铁路产品,提出了一种基于随机森林(RF)结合前向序列选择(SFS)算法的铁路产品检验检测数据关键影响因素识别方法,以辅助基于经验的识别方法。创新使用RF-SFS算法,将其应用于铁路隧道防水板检验检测数据关键影响因素的识别研究。根据多年铁路隧道防水板检测数据,建立RF模型,获得了影响铁路隧道防水板检测结果的特征关键性评分序列。随后,结合SFS方法得出关键性评分序列的阈值,将排名前6位的影响因素识别为关键特征,模型的预测能力达到99.98%。为验证关键特征识别方法的有效性,对比分析3种模型在使用不同特征子集时的预测能力。当仅选用关键特征时,3种模型的预测能力均达到最佳,加入冗余特征后模型的预测能力逐渐降低。     

公共自行车使用时空特性挖掘及租还需求预测

基于宁波市公共自行车刷卡数据、POI(Point of Interest)数据、气象和空气质量等数据，从数据驱动视角，深入挖掘公共自行车使用的时空特征及站点租还车需求预测。在时间上，采用KMeans算法，将站点聚为5类，探讨各类站点的时变需求规律及影响因素；在空间上，提出基于POI 数据的站点用地类型识别方法，将站点分为居住类、交通设施类、办公类和商业休闲类。构建以 15，30，60 min 为间隔，以租还车需求为目标变量的随机森林预测模型，并与常用的 BP (Back Propagation)神经网络、K最近邻方法进行比较。结果表明，随机森林模型的精度更高，适用性更强。以30 min为间隔的站点租还车需求预测精度最高，考虑站点土地利用类型后能有效提高模型的预测精度。本文结果可作为未来站点平衡调度的依据并推广应用于共享单车系统，为改善服务水平提供技术和理论支撑。     

完善我国海难救助报酬分配的几点建议

救助报酬的分配是海难救助制度中一个至关重要的方面。分配方案的合理与否,公正与否直接影响鼓励救助这一目的的实现。分析了我国有关海难救助报酬分配的现状,比较、借鉴有关救助公约和英、美、日等国家国内法,为其完善提出了几点修改建议。     

Statistical Approaches to Mapping QTL of Dynamic Traits

Dynamic traits are those that change with timein the development process of life or other quanti-tative factor (e. g. environmental condition).These traits also are called infinite-dimensionalcharacters by Kirkpatrick and Heckman[1]andfunction-valued traits by Pletcher and Geyer[2], be-cause they can be expressed as a function of someindependent and continuous variables. Dynamictraits are collected at many time points during thecourse of life. Therefore, studies of dynamic traitsare regarded…     

辽东湾北部浅水区海冰对航行的影响及对策

辽东湾北部浅水区有许多石油开发区块,由于水浅有冰等因素,使在现有的破冰船和冰区航行技术条件下的航行十分困难。分沿岸冻结区、滩涂堆积区和流冰区等不同区带讨论辽东湾北部海冰存在特征以及海冰对航行的影响,并根据海冰存在特点和海域工程的具体特性提出相应的对策。     

Distribution of suspended sediment in the coastal sea off the Ganges–Brahmaputra River mouth: observation from TM data

Remote sensing technique was applied to estimate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and to understand transportation, distribution and deposition of suspended sediment in the estuary and throughout the coastal sea, off the Ganges–Brahmaputra River mouth. During low river discharge period, zone of turbidity maximum is inferred in the estuary near the shore. SSC map shows that maximum SSC reaches 1050 mg/l in this period. Magnitude of SSC is mainly owing to resuspension of the bottom surface sediments induced by tidal currents flowing over shallow water depths. The influence of depth on resuspension is farther revealed from the distribution and magnitude of SSC along the head of Swatch of No Ground (SNG) submarine canyon. During high river discharge period, huge river outflow pushed the salt wedge and flashes away the suspended sediments in the coastal sea off the river mouth. Zone of turbidity maximum is inferred in the coastal water approximately within 5–10 m depth of water, where the maximum SSC reaches 1700 mg/l. In this period, huge fluvial input of the suspended sediments including the resuspended bottom sediments and the particles remaining in suspension for longer period of time since their initial entry control mainly the magnitude of SSC. In the estuary near the shore, seasonal variation in the magnitude of SSC is not evident. In the coastal sea (>5 m water depth), seasonal influence in the magnitude of SSC could be concluded from the discrepancy between SSC values of two different seasons. Transportation and deposition of suspended sediments also experiences seasonal variations. At present, suspended sediments are being accumulated on the shallow shelf (between 5 and 10 m water depth) in low discharge period and on the mid-shelf (between 10 and 75 m water depth) during high discharge period. An empirical (exponential) relationship was found between gradual settle down of suspended sediments in the coastal sea and its lateral distance from the turbidity maximum.     

基于模糊可靠性理论的高速线材轧辊优化设计研究

工作时受交变应力的作用,高速线材轧辊断裂问题时有发生.文章利用模糊可靠性理论,探讨在随机变量和模糊变量组合时轧辊的模糊可靠性设计方法.设计实例和生产实践证实了该方法具有优化设计的效果,使轧辊使用寿命显著提高.     

Species of Thaumatomastix (Thaumatomastigidae, Protista incertae sedis) from the Arctic sea ice biota (North-East Water Polynya, NE Greenland)

The sea ice biota of polar regions contains numerous heterotrophic flagellates very few of which have been properly identified. The whole mount technique for transmission electron microscopy enables the identification of loricate and scaly forms. A survey of Arctic ice samples (North-East Water Polynya, NE Greenland) revealed the presence of ca. 12 taxa belonging to the phagotrophic genus Thaumatomastix (Protista incertae sedis). Species of Thaumatomastix possess siliceous body scales and one naked and one scale-covered flagellum. The presence in both Arctic samples and sea ice material previously examined from the Antarctic indicates that this genus is most likely ubiquitous in polar sea ice and may be an important component in sea ice biota microbial activities.     

加速发展我国高性能船舶和水上高速客运

为开发海洋经济，发展海上运输，加快海军现代化建设步伐，必须加速发展高性能船舶和水下高速客运。为此，本文提出了有关决策层参考的几点政策性建议。     

基于虚拟样机技术的机车车辆钢弹簧疲劳寿命研究

机车车辆在轨道上运行时,线路的不平顺及车轮的变形会使悬挂装置受到各种有害冲击。断裂和应力松弛是机车车辆钢弹簧最常见的失效形式,有研究证明弹簧断裂绝大部分都是因疲劳引起的。发生松弛失效的弹簧没有及时更换,会给列车的安全运行埋下隐患,引发严重的行车事故。运用多体动力学软件SIMPACK建立整车模型．提取弹簧随机载荷谱,通过疲劳分析软件FE—Safe对某电力机车二系悬挂钢弹簧进行随机疲劳寿命分析,对轨道车辆钢弹簧寿命预测及确定更换周期具有一定的工程实用价值。