Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence

Travel time reliability is a fundamental factor in travel behavior. It represents the temporal uncertainty experienced by travelers in their movement between any two nodes in a network. The importance of the time reliability depends on the penalties incurred by the travelers. In road networks, travelers consider the existence of a trip travel time uncertainty in different choice situations (departure time, route, mode, and others). In this paper, a systematic review of the current state of research in travel time reliability, and more explicitly in the value of travel time reliability is presented. Moreover, a meta-analysis is performed in order to determine the reasons behind the discrepancy among the reliability estimates.     

Variability of the Bohai Sea circulation based on model calculations

The circulation and the hydrography of the Bohai Sea are simulated with the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The model is three-dimensional, prognostic baroclinic and has a resolution of 5 min in latitude and longitude and 10 layers in the vertical. It is initialised and forced with the five main tidal constituents, temperature and salinity distributions taken from the Levitus database, monthly mean river run-off values and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) re-analysed data of air pressure, wind stress and of those parameters relevant for the calculation of heat fluxes. The simulation period covers 14 years from 1980 to 1993 due to the availability of the time-dependent ECMWF forcing.The results are analysed by means of time series and EOFs focussing on the interpretation of fluctuations with periods above the tidal cycle. Furthermore, tracer simulations are carried out and turnover times are calculated in order to evaluate the importance of these fluctuations on the renewal and transport of water masses in the Bohai Sea.One of the major outcomes of the investigation is the overall dominance of the annual cycle in all hydrographic parameters and the importance of stochastic weather fluctuations on the transport of water masses in the Bohai Sea.     

军用机场水泥混凝土道面结构参数变异性

机场水泥混凝土道面结构参数包括板厚、混凝土弯拉强度和弯拉弹性模量、地基反应模量。用钻孔取芯样测板厚,并加工成标准圆柱体试件做劈拉试验,根据试验结果计算出混凝土弯拉强度;用测得的动弯沉反算出地基反应模量。以一个机场的道面作为样本,经概率分布检验,板厚和混凝土弯拉强度符合正态分布;地基反映模量符合对数正态分布。在40多个机场实测道面参数的基础上,得到了所测机场道面结构参数的概率分布的均值和均方差,并确定了道面结构参数的变异范围。提出了各级机场水泥混凝土道面的目标可靠度的建议值,推荐了道面结构参数变异水平分级。     

沥青路面压实度和空隙率的变异性分析

沥青混合料路面的压实度与空隙率是路面施工的重要质量检测指标,是沥青路面使用寿命最基本的保证.压实度与空隙率由于受原材料、混合料配合比设计、施工工艺和施工温度等因素的影响,会造成矿料骨架结构的变化,影响混合料的结构和强度;压实度与空隙率的变异性会影响到路面的强度、耐久性和防水性等,当路面发生脱粒、坑槽、渗水等病害时,追寻病害根源,分析压实度与空隙率的变异性是必要的.     

废旧沥青混合料性能研究

对废旧沥青混合料中回收沥青的化学结构、流变性能和废旧沥青混合料中沥青变异性、级配变异性进行试验分析,综合评价了废旧沥青混合料的性能。     

Incorporating uncertainty into short-term travel time predictions

To improve the quality of travel time information provided to motorists, there is a need to move away from point forecasts of travel time. Specifically, techniques are needed which predict the range of travel times which motorists may experience. This paper focuses on travel time prediction on motorways and evaluates three models for predicting the travel time range in real time as well as up to 1 h ahead. The first model, termed lane by lane tracing, relies on speed data from each lane to replicate the trajectories of relatively slow and relatively fast vehicles on the basis of speed differences across the lanes. The second model is based on the relationship between mean travel time (estimated using a neural network model) and driver-to-driver travel time variability. The results provide insight into the relative merits of the proposed techniques and confirm that they provide a basis for reliable travel time range prediction in the short-term prediction context (up to 1 h ahead).     

Consistent formulation of network equilibrium with stochastic flows

Traffic flows in real-life transportation systems vary on a daily basis. According to traffic flow theory, such variability should induce a similar variability in travel times, but this “internal consistency” is generally not captured by existing network equilibrium models. We present an internally-consistent network equilibrium approach, which considers two potential sources of flow variability: (i) daily variation in route choice and (ii) daily variation in origin–destination demand. We particularly aspire to a flexible formulation that permits alternative statistical assumptions, which allows the best fit to be made to observed variability data in particular applications. Joint probability distributions of route—and therefore link—flows are derived under several assumptions concerning stochastic driver behavior. A stochastic network equilibrium model with stochastic demands and route choices is formulated as a fixed point problem. We explore limiting cases which allow an equivalent convex optimization problem to be defined, and finally apply this method to a real-life network of Kanazawa City, Japan.     

废旧沥青混合料性能研究

对废旧沥青混合料中回收沥青的化学结构、流变性能和废旧沥青混合料中沥青变异性、级配变异性进行试验分析,综合评价了废旧沥青混合料的性能。     

沥青面层施工质量变异性的分布特征

在现场检测和室内试验研究的基础上,分析在沥青面层施工过程中沥青混合料材料组成变化、特别是级配组成变化特点,分析现场压实厚度和空隙率变化及其分布特征,从而掌握沥青路面施工质量特征,结果表明:沥青混合料的生产级配曲线多呈S型,粒径≤0.074mm的粉料含量有着超出设计上限的趋势,摊铺机后混合料级配离析程度随着摊铺宽度而增加,现场空隙率分布变异性在摊铺机边缘最大,结构厚度分布变异性在2台摊铺机接缝处最大。