Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

The effects of information bias and riding frequency on noise annoyance to a new railway extension in Hong Kong

We investigate how two non-acoustic factors, information bias and riding frequency, can affect the annoyance response of an urban population to noise created by a new railway line. The study shows that information bias is asymmetrical. Respondents receiving only information on positive measures taken by the authority to reduce noise emission are more tolerant of the noise impact, but those receiving only critical views tend to be more annoyed because they feel that not all measures to reduce noise have been employed. Additionally people who use the line frequently are more tolerant to the noise impact than those who do not. Information bias seems to have a temporary masking effect over riding frequency lasting for a few weeks after railway opening. This suggest that whilst free flow of information provided by the authority can help alleviate annoyance response, encouraging the people affected to make use of the new infrastructure may be useful to reduce public resistance and noise annoyance.     

Estimating the robustness of questionnaire results: lessons from a mixed-mode survey of expectations for tele-working and road-based business travel

The robustness of questionnaire results to various forms of bias are explored in the context of a dual-mode (web and hardcopy) survey of employers’ anticipations of levels of employee commuting and business travel activity under a range of future ICT scenarios. The questionnaire incorporated several innovative features which, together with the dual-mode format, allowed an unusually wide range of analyses. For example: the robustness of respondents’ opinions was tested by examining the effect of incorporating alternative versions of a briefing text, one being very positive and one very negative, about the role of ICT; instrument bias was identified via detailed comparison of the results from the two versions of the questionnaire; and the impact of exogenous factors which are often ignored or taken as constant was assessed via special supplementary questions. Analysis showed that the robustness of opinions and expectations varied and was influenced by respondent characteristics, and that results from the two versions of the questionnaire differed significantly. It is concluded that opinions and expectations are less robust, and questionnaire results are more subject to bias and myopic interpretation, than is generally recognised and that web-based surveys seem particularly vulnerable to sampling bias. Methods are suggested for measuring robustness, for reducing bias and for validating and contextualising results. The use of contrasting briefing texts is recommended as a means of establishing the robustness of opinions and expectations while supplementary questions are recommended for validating and contextualising SP and SE exercises.

基于ABAQUS的地质偏压隧道非线性接触分析

针对于山岭隧道常出现的,穿越倾斜产状的层状岩体,或多在隧道进出口处节理裂隙发育的情况,结合成兰铁路茂县隧道出口地段所处的地质偏压环境,应用ABAQUS有限元分析软件中的面-面接触单元,建立节理软弱结构面的二维隧道模型。并对地质偏压隧道的围岩压力及衬砌结构内力进行非线性接触分析和计算,初步得出单线铁路隧道在地质偏压情况下围岩和衬砌结构的位移、应力的分布特征,并讨论软弱结构面的摩擦系数对隧道偏压作用的影响,根据隧道受力特点提出隧道在地质偏压情况下可能采取的建议和措施。     

公路隧道洞口斜交、偏压段施工技术

以云山隧道右线进口不良地质段为实例,详细介绍了洞身与山体斜交、偏压时,采用双层超前小导管注浆加固隧道围岩进洞时小导管的设计参数、施工工艺、施工要点等,对同类工程施工有一定借鉴作用。     

CoFe2O4的磁性和交换偏置场研究

用化学共沉淀法制备出颗粒细小的CoFe2O4纳米微粉,利用x射线衍射确定了粉体的组成,利用扫描电子显微镜观察了颗粒的形貌,利用振动样品磁强计测量了室温下粉体的磁性能。结果显示,常温下,存在交换偏置场。     

Modeling the relationships among urban passenger travel carbon dioxide emissions,transportation demand and supply,population density,and proxy policy variables

To support the development of policies that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by encouraging reduced travel and increased use of efficient transportation modes, it is necessary to better understand the explanatory effects that transportation, population density, and policy variables have on passenger travel related CO₂ emissions. This study presents the development of a model of CO₂ emissions per capita as a function of various explanatory variables using data on 146 urbanized areas in the United States. The model takes into account selectivity bias resulting from the fact that adopting policies aimed at reducing emissions in an urbanized area may be partly driven by the presence of environmental concerns in that area. The results indicate that population density, transit share, freeway lane-miles per capita, private vehicle occupancy, and average travel time have a statistically significant explanatory effect on passenger travel related CO₂ emissions. In addition, the presence of automobile emissions inspection programs, which serves as a proxy indicator of other policies addressing environmental concerns and which could influence travelers in making environmentally favorable travel choices, markedly changes the manner in which transportation variables explain CO₂ emission levels.     

900t运梁车及提梁机用轮胎简析

通过对子午线轮胎和尼龙斜交轮胎的结构对比，以及对铁路施工提梁机和运梁车实际作业工况的分析，说明了两种不同结构轮胎在特定作业工况下的优缺点，证明尼龙斜交轮胎在以上作业工况下有着更好的适应性。     

基于航迹偏差角和航向差的自航模运动轨迹控制方法研究

针对水面自航模运动轨迹传统控制方法的缺点,提出用航迹偏差角代替航迹偏差、航向差代替偏航角速度为输入变量的模糊控制方法。通过实船试验,与传统控制方法相比,改进后的控制方法操控性更强、轨迹波动更小。     

桥梁橡胶支座更换时支座偏压病害的处置

支座偏压病害会导致支座胶层开裂及其他早期劣化,并影响支座强度储备,文章分析了支座偏压病害产生的原因,结合现行规范有针对性地提出解决措施.