FFA盈利模式的创建

为有效控制航运风险并提高航运公司的盈利水平，把双向船货模式灵活运用为船、货和FFA的三向模式，能极大地丰富航运企业的盈利手段和模式。介绍FFA的起源和发展过程，考察实际市场上价差存在带来的机会，对FFA操作风险进行探讨，最后在实践的基础上用FFA结合现货创造出几种无风险盈利的模式。研究发现：只要看准时机、操作得当，FFA的风险反而比现货市场的风险要小，而且把FFA和现货市场合理结合进行操作，市场上就会存在一种能够无风险增加公司收入的机会，提高航运公司的期租水平。     

运用FFA降低铁矿石运输市场风险

为缓解铁矿石海运价格不断上涨给国内钢铁企业带来的成本压力,降低铁矿石海运市场风险,基于我国进口铁矿石海上运输大多是通过现货市场完成的特点,提出国内钢铁企业应运用远期运费协议(FFA)以降低现货市场价格变动所带来的实际价格风险,并举实例说明,在当前市场波动较大的情况下,订立FFA将运输成本锁定,对钢铁企业比较有利。     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

远期运费协议的应用

为推动远期运费协议（FFA）的应用,从航运市场运费风险规避的角度出发,分析套期保值、投机和套利等3种FFA投资策略以及基本面分析、技术分析这2种交易分析手段,以期通过掌握正确的投资策略和操作方法,在FFA市场上实现理想目标。     

Dynamics and interactions between spot and forward freights in the dry bulk shipping market

Analyzing the interactions between spot and forward freight agreement (FFA) prices in the dry bulk shipping is important as they play a significant role for shipping companies to secure their profits and avoid potential risks in the volatile market. By applying the vector autoregression (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM), this paper identifies the long-run and mutual causal relationship between the spot and FFA prices on the BPI T/C and BCI C7 routes. Along with these cointegrating rates, exogenous factors such as the market demand and supply and some economic indices are also recognized as contributing variables for the dynamic movement of the spot and FFA prices. Importantly, the mean-reverting process is justified on both routes with different mechanisms. When the spot and FFA prices deviate from their equilibrium level in the short run, they will be adjusted to their long-run equilibrium more directly and clearly on the BPI T/C route than those on the BCI C7 route. It also indicates that this adjusting power has direction and size asymmetries on both routes. In addition, the impulse analysis indicates that the spot rate is more volatile than its corresponding FFA prices confronting innovations. The results of this study provide a reference to the participants in the dry bulk shipping market on the causes of fluctuation in spot and FFA prices and their interactions, which can be used to promote the risk management in the market.