国际油运市场2018年回顾与2019年展望

回顾2018年国际油运市场,其特点为世界经济增长动能减弱,亚洲继续引领原油需求增长;原油供需平衡面临新挑战,页岩油显著影响国际油价走势;中国原油进口量继续攀升,非国营原油进口允许量进一步提升;油轮拆解量大幅度上升,油轮船队运力增速降低;油轮新订单同比回落,新船造价一路回升;二手油轮市场成交增加,油轮资产价格同步回升。展望2019年国际油运市场变化趋势,主要为保护主义影响世界经济步伐,全球原油重心更趋东移;美产页岩油全球攻城略地,OPEC疲于接招油价反弹受限;环保公约"步步逼近",运力加速拆解有望加快行业周期进程。预测2019年油运市场将呈现上行动力不足、复苏温和缓慢的态势。     

营口港仙人岛港区新建油码头合理船型分析

随着世界石油运量的增长,油轮船队的规模和船舶吨级不断扩大。从我国原油运输航线和经济船型综合分析预测,综合考虑世界原油船队结构、原油输出国现有码头泊位构成和本项目原油运输航线等情况,大型原油码头到港的合理船型是以30万t级的VLCC为主力船型配以苏伊士型和阿芙拉型。     

能源消费热点转移油轮船东押注中国

伦敦海事船舶金融与投资论坛预测，世界原油贸易重心将从大西洋转向太平洋地区。英国经纪商ICA油轮研究部主任Simon Newman认为，中国原油消费的上升空间巨大。英国能源咨询商总经理兼国际能源署《世界能源晾望》撰稿人Tmvor Morgan预测，未来25年全球原油贸易格局将发生巨变．     

全球视野下的中国油轮运输市场供需格局分析

油轮运输市场受到世界政治格局、经济环境等多重因素的影响,具有极大的不确定性。在阐述全球油轮运输市场的原油需求、船队规模和船舶价格的基础上,分析我国油轮运输市场的供需状况、行业特征和竞争格局。结果表明,中国原油进口需求量逐年攀升,年均增长率达20%;近十年来中国VLCC船队在全球市场份额中从不足5%增长到20%以上;中国油轮船队规模不断扩大,国油国运率上升至40%;四大油轮企业的竞争主要集中于远洋航线VLCC船队的竞争和与石化企业的市场份额竞争。     

油轮市场中长期走势分析

从去年开始到今年上半年,世界石油需求上升,油轮船队保有量出现下降,但是。运价却出人意料地仍维持在相当低的水平上。 1994.由于世界经济复苏,原油海运量增长了2.6％。另一方面,去年油轮拆解量达1600万载重吨,而新船交用量不到1000万载重吨,使世界油轮保有量降至3年前的水平。然而,油轮运价并无明显好转,特别是大型油轮运价。虽然去年下半年运价有所上升,但原因只是美国实行油轮油污责任证书(COFR)制度短时间内对市场造成影响,以及燃油价格大幅上涨,而不是因为油轮市场的供需平衡得以明显改善。 油轮运价低迷的主要原因,是原油海运结构的变化。据统计,1994年世界原油海运周转量仅增长0.5％,其中区域内短程原油     

油轮收益短期内将增加

根据波罗的海航运公会（BIMCO）的阶段性预测，得益于全球原油需求量上升，各型油轮的日均收入可能在未来几周有不同程度的增加。BIMCO做出上述预测的原因是估计今年全球原油需求将上升1％．原油轮吨海里数需求增长缓慢但平稳。据国际能源署（IEA）预测，全球第二大原油消费国的中国今年的原油消耗量将上升4％，每日将增加38．8万桶；     

Euronav对VLCC大笔投资油轮登上中心舞台

2014年原油运费将上涨，海运业的主要看点将是油轮船队。 圣诞节期间，虽然大多数船东去度假了，但是比利时油运船东Euronav经过努力，把一个巨大的赌注押在了大型油轮市场。许多航运分析师也附和，预测2014年原油运费将上涨，海运的主力将是油轮船队．     

浅谈对大型油轮原油洗舱的海事监管

对于大型油轮原油洗舱的海事监管,各地海事机构都有不同的做法,本文通过原油洗舱的特点和主要隐患的分析,探讨对原油洗舱进行安全、便捷、高效海事监管的途径。     

世界大型油轮的发展和我国原油码头的建设规模

通过对世界VLCC/ULCC 油轮船队的现状、发展趋势和进口油航线的分析,论证我国进口原油的经济船型,在此基础上探讨我国原油码头建设规模的经济性、合理性。     

海上钢铁巨龙——超级油轮今昔

1967年,苏伊士运河关闭以后,原油从中东运到日本、美国、西欧等主要工业国都必须绕道好望角,从而至少增加15000公里行程。从此,世界油轮就迅速向大型化方向发展,出现了超级油轮这样一种庞然大物。人们习惯上通常把总载重量为16万吨—32万吨的超级油轮称为大型油轮,把32万吨以上的超级油轮称     

进口原油运输船型经济性分析

石油是世界海上运量最大的货种之一，约占海上总运输量的三分之一。加入WTO后，中国石油海上运输量，特别是进口原油运输量将大幅度地增加。针对这一现实情况，本文对世界原油运输船队的技术经济作了概括性分析，对原油进口航线作了介绍。建立了单船运输经济性测算模型。基于实船经济指标测算结果，以必要运费率为主，通过比较选出了优良船型。并定量测算出不同类型船舶在同一航线上营运的必要运费率及其差异。研究结果指出，随着进口原油量的大幅度增加，中国应大力发展VLCC和Suezmax船队，重点建设大型深水油轮码头。     

Valuing cargo flexibility in oil transportation

The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies.     

世界石油市场和中国海运量现状及发展预测

概述了国际原油生产消耗和贸易、进出口主要国家与地区及海运量航线基本情况,进行了国际成品油海运市场分析和中国原油进口量与国内成品油海运量预测,以期在总体上为中国石油多渠道稳定供应安全和港航油运企业发展决策提供借鉴。     

Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates

Given the secular and sharp rise in oil prices over the past decade, this study analyses the impact that the spike in oil prices has on tanker rates. We investigate a dynamic model explaining spot tanker rates. The magnitude of the impact of oil prices on the shipping industry, in terms of the level and volatility of spot (voyage) under bull and bear market conditions. The West African–US Gulf Tanker Rates, West Texas Intermediate spot and 3-month futures contract, and US Weekly Petroleum Inventories are analysed using cointegration and Granger causality analysis, from 1997 through 2007, in order to examine the lead–lag relationship between oil prices and tanker freight rates. Our findings show a relationship between spot and future crude oil prices, crude oil inventories and tanker rates. The significant increase of freight rates, and the simultaneous increase in oil prices, during the recent years, provides an intriguing economic environment to identify relationships between shipping market rates and oil prices. These relationships have significant implications for the markets. At the practical level, the better understanding of the relationship between freight rates and crude oil prices can improve operational management and budget planning decisions.     

利用宏命令计算货油舱蒸汽耗量

详细介绍了如何进行货油舱蒸汽耗量计算,并结合49 000 t原油/成品油船实船设计,利用宏命令自动平衡蒸汽加热系统,使加热时间符合设计要求,提高设计效率。     

近年世界油运市场的发展与趋势

总结了近年世界石油海运市场的需求、供给、发到船量与运价的发展趋势,对中国油运船队的发展提出一些看法。     

Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?

Since paper freight-hedging tools were introduced to counter volatile tanker freight rates, the hesitant uptake of tanker Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) has been attributed to traditional risk seeking propensities amongst tanker owners, naturally reluctant to hedge against risk. To test how far the well-documented generic determinants and incentives for corporate hedging could explain this hesitation in the tanker market, the attitudes of tanker owners and charterers towards freight hedging, risk and perceptions of FFAs, were surveyed. Although FFAs were widely viewed as an important development, some respondents were unaware of their function and a majority had not used them. The link between freight hedging activity and participants' risk aversion was not clear-cut, but with market liquidity critical to raising FFA usage improved technical education is essential to widespread acceptance     

船舶电解海水法的压载水处理系统

结合中海48000载重吨成品油／原油船“荣池”号的设计经验,对电解海水法的压载水处理系统首次在油船上使用时所面临的关键技术问题予以归纳分析,对今后相关系统的设计有较好的借鉴作用。     

油运费率指数的规律性分析及短期预测

以时间序列统计分析作为基础研究手段，分析了不同类别油运费率指数的运行规律，并应用ARIMA时间序列模型对160000dwt以上的原油运费率指数进行了短期预测，取得了较好的预测效果。