Approaches to the future in U.S. urban transportation planning

In appreciation of the fact that longer-run considerations are particularly important in the development of urban transportation, during the past three decades American transportation planning has been employing increasingly sophisticated approaches to the future. This article discusses four phases in this evolution, with a given focus dominant in each period.During the first period, following on the initial provision of federal government funds for the construction of highways in and around cities, major reliance was based on simple projections of travel demand in metropolitan regions, based mainly on current patterns.This was followed by an approach which focused on an analysis of impacts on transportation systems of projected land uses, based on forecasts of population and economic growth for a target year, on the assumption that facilities were to be provided to move all vehicles that wanted to move from here to there at least possible cost.The third period was characterized by an increasing consciousness of the value of articulating national and local goals in making transportation decisions, going beyond narrow economic and mobility objectives, and including the notion of trade-offs among goals.The most recent period discussed is one characterized by rising interest in futures studies, using methods such as Delphi and cross-impact analysis and approaches such as alternative futures, as well as a search for achieving flexibility in transportation development and for means of limiting resource commitment in the face of the uncertainties of the future (keeping options open).It is pointed out that we still have a long way to go in learning how to evolve feasible images of the future, with associated explicit urban life-style goals, that come to grips with societal variety and conflicting interests.     

Sample size and grouping in the estimation of disaggregate models—A simple case

Using a very simple form of disaggregate model for household car ownership, it appears that two widely held beliefs about disaggregate modelling — that analysis should always be carried out on individual households, and that sample sizes of 500 to 1000 are generally sufficient - are not necessarily valid. Though the results may not be generalizable to the full class of problems to which disaggregate analysis addresses itself, it does seem that more attention needs to be given to the questions of sample size and grouping.In addition, the standard test of goodness of fit (the so-called rho-squared test) is shown to be extremely weak. A far stronger and to some extent complementary, test is to compare the log-likelihood value given by the model with that on the basis of the full or saturated model — a test which has recently been clearly presented by a number of writers in the statistical literature. When using dummy variables, it is important that pair-wise tests on coefficients relating to various levels of the same attribute should be carried out, as well as the standard test assessing difference from zero.These points are illustrated by a number of simple examples.The abstract of this paper appears on p. 369.     

Development of multimodal performance measures for transit systems in New York State

The New York State Department of Transportation was required to certify as to the economy and efficiency of transit operators participating in the State's public transportation operating assistance program. This paper describes the efforts undertaken to meet this mandate.Discussed are past efforts to link performance measures to funding programs; reasons for modifying measures which had been used in previous efforts; and some of the problems and issues raised by the use of such criteria. The paper identifies 15 performance measures being used by New York State in its evaluations, the actual ranges encountered in the transit operations being funded through the state program, and tentative acceptable and desirable levels of those measures which the Transportation Department is using in its evaluation. The role these measures play in the state's operating assistance policy decision process is also described.     

The design of bus route systems — An interactive location-allocation approach

An interactive modelling approach is developed to solve the practical problem of bus route network design. Possible bus routes are identified with facilities which can be located. Zones or pairs of zones in the urban area are identified with customers who will be allocated to the established facilities. It is shown that the classical Set Covering Problem is useful under the assumption of fixed demand; the Simple Plant Location Problem is effective under the assumption of demand which is sensitive to the level of bus service provided.     

New methods of controlling vehicle ownership and usage in Singapore

Over the years Singapore has introduced several fiscal measures aimed at restraining car ownership and usage and thus preventing traffic congestion. Two new methods have recently been added: the Vehicle Quota System which limits the number of new vehicles registered each month and the Weekend Car Scheme which allows cars to be registered for use during off-peak hours only, with substantial financial savings to the owners. The Vehicle Quota System involves monthly public tenders for Certificates of Entitlement needed to register new cars. Over the past 30 months the cost of COE's has been increasing and now constitutes between 12% and 27% of the on-the-road price of a new car. The fluctuations in the COE premiums for different vehicle categories are presented and analysed. The initial problems and the recent modifications made as a result of public pressure are also described. It seems that the increases in COE premiums are likely to continue under strong economic growth conditions as the demand for cars is more income-elastic than price-elastic.     

Model development for metro station access mode choice

This paper analyses the behaviour of metro users in choosing their access mode to a metro station. Multinominal logit models with satisfactory predictive power were developed for access mode choice on the basis of data collected by interviewing metro users at existing metro stations. A population segmentation approach was adopted and models referring to individuals having the same set of alternative access modes were developed. Trip purpose was found to have significant effects on the access mode choice. Thus, for each population segment different models are proposed for work and education and other trip purpose. Various conclusions concerning the importance of the variables included in the proposed models were drawn through comparisons carried out across the models.     

A tour-based model of travel mode choice

This paper presents a new tour-based mode choice model. The model is agent-based: both households and individuals are modelled within an object-oriented, microsimulation framework. The model is household-based in that inter-personal household constraints on vehicle usage are modelled, and the auto passenger mode is modelled as a joint decision between the driver and the passenger(s) to ride-share. Decisions are modelled using a random utility framework. Utility signals are used to communicate preferences among the agents and to make trade-offs among competing demands. Each person is assumed to choose the best combination of modes available to execute each tour, subject to auto availability constraints that are determined at the household level. The households allocations of resources (i.e., cars to drivers and drivers to ride-sharing passengers) are based on maximizing overall household utility, subject to current household resource levels. The model is activity-based: it is designed for integration within a household-based activity scheduling microsimulator. The model is both chain-based and trip-based. It is trip-based in that the ultimate output of the model is a chosen, feasible travel mode for each trip in the simulation. These trip modes are, however, determined through a chain-based analysis. A key organizing principle in the model is that if a car is to be used on a tour, it must be used for the entire chain, since the car must be returned home at the end of the tour. No such constraint, however, exists with respect to other modes such as walk and transit. The paper presents the full conceptual model and estimation results for an initial empirical prototype. Because of the complex nature of the model decision structure, choice probabilities are simulated from direct generation of random utilities rather than through an analytical probability expression.     

The benefits to the public of vehicle legislation — Attempts to measure the unmeasurable

Although inevitably there are grey areas, a distinction may be drawn between environmental disbenefits arising from vehicles which cause annoyance, such as noise, or loss of peace and quiet, vibration, visual intrusion, severance, and those which endanger life and limb. Legislation implemented to reduce either category will inevitably generate costs.It is suggested that in evaluating legislation relating to environmental nuisance, attempts should be made carefully to measure the benefits, while for legislation when life and limb is involved a cost-effectiveness approach should be adopted. Methods currently available to measure environmental nuisance arising from vehicles, for example opinion surveys, observing the effect of changes in some independent indicator, and simulation exercises are critically examined. Using evidence from the Urban Motorway Committee Reports, Noise Advisory Council, Transport and Road Research Laboratory surveys on the effect of traffic in selected High Streets, and the Realistic Environment Assessment Laboratory, Social and Community Planning Research ping-pong technique, studies of house price differentials, and estimates of willingness-to-pay for exclusion facilities, an attempt is made to highlight the dilemma that while benefits of environmental nuisance legislation should be carefully weighed against the anti-pollution costs, techniques currently available for measuring such benefits are very underdeveloped.Paradoxically there is a far more clear-cut procedure for valuing benefits of policies affecting life and limb. Official accident evaluation policy in the U.K. is described, and legislation affecting life and limb is examined.Finally, difficulties of effectively enforcing legislation of both environmental nuisance and life and limb categories are illustrated.     

An assignment model with modified Logit,which obviates enumeration and overlapping problems

One of the main components of stochastic assignment models is the route choice model solved with implicit or explicit path enumeration algorithms. Such models are used both for congested networks within equilibrium or dynamic models and for non-congested networks within static or pseudo-dynamic network loading models. This paper proposes a C-Logit model specification within a Dial algorithm structure for the implicit assignment of network flows. The model and its solution algorithm, called D-C-Logit, combine several positive features found in the literature for choice set generation and choices from a given choice set: generation of a set of alternatives with a selective approach; calculation of the path choice probability in a closed form; simulation of the overlapping effect among alternative paths; computation of just one tree for each origin avoiding explicit path enumeration.This paper has two main objectives: the proposition of a Dial-like algorithm to solve a C-Logit assignment model and application of the algorithm to different networks in order to demonstrate certain properties.     

Joint development at transit stations in the United States

Joint development, as the term is generally used in connection with transit systems in the United States, is real estate development that is closely linked to public transportation services and station facilities, and takes advantage of the market and locational advantages provided by them. Research conducted by LEK Associates for the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) suggests that, in addition to helping shape urban growth and land development, joint development is also a surprisingly effective means of increasing transit system ridership and farebox revenues, as well as a source of increasingly significant revenues from the sale or lease of air rights.The completion of nine joint development projects in as many different cities, started under the former Urban Initiatives Program, for example, net additional annual ridership might reach 12000000 one-way trips. Net additional annual farebox revenues might reach over $9000000. This added revenue would be sufficient to repay the $62 million combined UMTA/transit operator investment in the nine projects, exclusive of the costs of the basic transit system improvements around which the projects are planned, in less than six years.Among transit authority-administered joint development programs examined in a separate study, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) has had the most success in generating significant value capture income. For example, the cumulative revenue realized by WMATA from just six joint development projects in the Washington, DC region, through September 1983 exceeded $ 6.9 million. Projections through fiscal year 1986 indicate cumulative revenues approximating $ 28 million will be received from developer leases.     

Indicators of urban accessibility: Theory and application

The concept of accessibility and its related indicators have been in use for a long time, with still diverging interpretations of their significance and formulation. In this paper, a review is made of various existing theoretical bases, with special emphasis on recent behavioural approaches. It is suggested that this theoretical framework now allows a better appraisal of accessibility indicators and precise recommendations are proposed for their practical formulation and use. Various examples are given, especially for disaggregate analysis where a calculation for a given person is proposed instead of the conventional calculation .by a given mode. Finally, the relations between accessibility and trip rate are examined; from a study made in French cities, it is suggested that accessibility is a powerful determinant of trip rate.     

The state-of-the-art of “comprehensive” planning

Planning occurs as a part of governmental operations wherever decision-making happens. For US metropolitan areas, the locuses of decision-making are multiple, ranging in scale from very small jurisdictions up through the hierarchy to state and federal levels, and in function from general governments to many special-purpose agencies — transportation, health care, education, etc. Almost all might affect or be affected by urban transportation decisions and actions. Since no one of these units of government is comprehensive in authority and activity, there is no single, centralized planning operation that is truly comprehensive. Pluralistic planning is increasingly trying to foresee and to accommodate the interactions among the various levels and functions. Instead of fragmenting, with the fragments pulled apart and insulated, we need to move toward partitioning, not merely to delimit boundaries but also to identify interfaces. This movement is hampered by the differentials in the development of the state-of-the-art of the technical planning process now used by the several levels and functional units of government. This is most advanced, and most effective, for small, homogeneous suburban jurisdictions primarily concerned with guiding and controlling physical development; it is in disarray in central cities trying to cope with social and economic problems as well as with physical deterioration; at the metropolitan scale it is highly developed technically but not very influential. There is a trend toward a network of planning activities that recognizes and facilitates interrelationships and interactions, both vertically among functional boundaries and horizontally across geographical-scale distinctions — a trend toward the comprehensive —but we have a very long way to go.Paper prepared for the Highway Research Board Conference on Organization for Continuing Urban Transportation Planning.     

Allocation of funds to public transport investment and operating support

This paper reviews the present levels of operating support to, and public investment in, public transport systems in Western Europe. All internal bus, tram and rail services are included, and estimates made for total support in Britain, Sweden, West Germany, the Netherlands and France. To make comparison meaningful, these are shown in relation to GDP and traffic carried. Support levels in Britain are below average, but by no means the lowest as sometimes assumed. Reasons for providing support are considered, including existence of financial burdens arising historically, assistance to particular groups of users, problems in price discrimination and inability of other modes' charges to reflect costs. The extent to which support payments may merely subsidise inefficiency is outlined. A distinction is drawn between productive efficiency, i.e. the resources used to provide a specified level of service and fare, and allocative efficiency, i.e. the extent to which resources are allocated so as to maximise traffic, etc. The extent for reducing support yet retaining the present general level of service and fare is considered.Means of raising finance for support are outlined, including relative roles of central and local government. The scope of local taxes being raised to meet local objectives is considered, notably in the French versement transport: In conclusion, it is suggested that trunk inter-city services should cover all costs from fares, by a discriminatory pricing policy, but central government provide a basic support level for rural areas. In urban areas, practical limits exist to price discrimination, and the best policy may be collective purchase of facilities through a local tax.     

Disaggregate simultaneous urban travel demand models: A brief introduction

This paper is intended to provide a general background to the two following papers, A Simultaneous Destination and Mode Choice Model for Shopping Trips and Some Estimation Results of a Simultaneous Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice to Work. Some of the deficiences of the conventional urban transport modelling system are reviewed and a case is made for the use of simultaneous models estimated with disaggregate data.     

Modelling behavioural rules for daily activity scheduling using fuzzy logic

The paper focuses on how trip time variability affects re-scheduling of daily activities. A delay in a trip or an early arrival can contribute to changes in the timing, location of the next activity, and to the deletion/addition of some activities. We propose the idea of using fuzzy logic rules to explain the effect of variability in travel time on the benefits perceived by an individual with the changes, and to model different actions that the individuals take in order to re-establish the steadiness of the existing timetable. The fuzzy model is used to handle the imprecision of the data which is unstructured text. The results show that large deviations in trip duration are more likely to induce significant changes in the timetable whereas small deviations are either ignored or translated into modified timing of the next activity. In choosing an action, greater importance is assigned to the flexibility of the following activity, to the magnitude of the trip time saving/delay, and to the duration of the next activity. Time savings are not favoured unless they can be readily transferred into additional activity time allocated to the next activity or to a new activity. The fuzzy rules based system is capable of predicting satisfactorily the strategy of coping with uncertainty in travel times and the satisfaction sensed with the change.     

Evaluating employer programs encouraging the use of alternate transportation modes: Two studies

Since 1976, major Denver metropolitan area firms have been required to encourage employees to use mass transit, carpooling, bicycling, and other alternate transportation modes to commute to work. The encouragement programs of 36 firms were clearly associated with greater use of alternate transportation modes, with the portion of variance in alternate transportation use explained by differences in employer programs of approximately 15%. The effects of the programs on deterring alternate mode users from returning to solo driving are consistently weaker than their effects on persuading drivers to try alternate transportation modes initially. Recommendations for the conduct of alternate transportation encouragement programs are made, based on these and other results. In addition, two recommendations are made concerning the evaluation of encouragement programs: that aggregate percentage change in alternate transportation use should not be used as the sole measure of success, and that environmental variables such as the availability of and pressure for use of alternate transportation modes should be measured and controlled.     

Analyzing the preference for non-exclusive forms of telecommuting: Modeling and policy implications

This study examines three models of the individual's preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecommute from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted ² = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted ² = 0.64). A nested logit model is also estimated on the following four alternatives: preferring not to telecommute, preferring either form of telecommuting, preferring to telecommute from home, and preferring to telecommute from a center (adjusted ² = 0.35).The results of the models illustrated the importance of attitudinal measures in measuring an individual's preference to telecommute. Oblique factor scores representing workplace interaction, stress, workaholism, internal control, and commute stress were statistically significant in some or all of the models. Other explanatory variables which were found to be consistently significant were education, job suitability, and age. Most respondents preferred either to telecommute from home or were indifferent between either form of telecommuting, which raises the question as to whether there really is a sizeable market niche to be filled by telecommuting centers, and hence whether they may make a significant contribution to transportation demand reduction.     

Bayesian updating of trip generation data: Combining national trip generation rates with local data

With traffic impact analyses and impact fee assessment becoming more popular, the need for accurately estimating the trip generation rate of a proposed development is becoming more important. An overwhelming percentage of state transportation agencies depend either partly or entirely on the ITETrip Generation Report to predict the traffic that will be attracted to and/or produced from a proposed development. However, the rates obtained from the ITE publication have been derived from data collected throughout the United States. They represent a national average and fail to take into account the local trip generation characteristics that the site under consideration might have. This paper establishes a methodology for obtaining more reliable local trip generation rates using Bayesian statistics. In this method, the ITE rates are assumed to be the prior information, which are updated using limited local trip generation data that are available. The method also allows for temporal updating, incorporating subjective judgment and using borrowed data in the updating procedure. Sample calculations in this paper illustrate the developed methodology.     

Teleworking in the Netherlands: an evaluation of changes in travel behaviour

This article describes the first experiment on teleworking in the Netherlands, and presents the results of an analysis of the impact of teleworking on the travel behaviour of the participants in the experiment and their household members. It was concluded that teleworking has resulted in a significant decrease in the total number of trips by teleworkers (–17%). Peak-hour traffic by car has been reduced even more (–26%). An unexpected result was that the household members of the teleworkers also appeared to travel less than before the experiment.     

Changes in real incomes and the demand for taxicabs

This paper comments on the possible future of the taxicab industry within the context of a familiar economic-growth model. The future capability of the taxicab industry to check increases in real costs is shown to be an important determinant in the industry's long-term viability. More importantly, the effect of rising real incomes on the demand for taxicabs is postulated also to have a strong effect on future demand. The strength of this effect and the exact position of the taxicab in the transit tree have important implications not only for the future demand for taxis but also for the more traditional modes of public transport.