SHIPPING IN CHINA

China opens maritime satellite mobile telephone services;China＇s first ship-related talent market settles in Zhoushan;Yangshan port will expand policy application scope;Tianjin electronic terminal and logistics information platform opened;     

Forecasting fishing vessel responses in coastal areas

A system for forecasting the operability of ships was developed by extending a wave forecasting system with the ship responses to the forecast sea states. The system produces 4-day wave forecasts in an implementation for the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone, where the vessels’ seakeeping performance is forecast, although the method presented could well be applied to any other coastal region. The proposed procedure requires the knowledge of the transfer functions for different ship speeds and headings. The computations are made for two different types of fishing vessels that currently operate in the Portuguese coast. Ship motions and derived responses are evaluated with a strip theory code and compared with the prescribed values of relevant seakeeping criteria that represent the limit conditions that still allow standard operational conditions for those vessels. For each forecast sea state at each grid point at a given time, the response spectrum is calculated and operability indexes are computed and compared with the maximum allowed values for a specific operation criterion. The results are presented as operational index maps for various areas of the Portuguese coast, and the information provided by system will help ship masters to plan the operation of their ships, namely to decide the areas to operate in anticipation. In this way, they can identify areas in which the level of operationally of their ships will be degraded due to weather conditions and avoid them.     

Is Somali piracy a random phenomenon?

This paper investigates whether Somali piracy is a random phenomenon. The investigation takes place in two distinct parts. Its statistical analysis spans over a period of 11 years, from 2000 until 2011 for the first part (flags), and 5 years, from 2007 until 2011 for the second one (crews). The reason is that although prior to 2007 there have been a substantial number of attacks (parameter used in the first part of the research), very few ships were practically pirated (parameter used in the second part) within the same period. Firstly, it is widely believed that Somali pirates select their targets at random and the decision on attacking a vessel registered under a particular flag is unrelated to the participation of the flag state in any of the naval forces operating around the Horn of Africa. The enquiry attempts to assess whether these two common beliefs are supported by historical data and to what extent. Secondly, this paper asks whether there are certain nationalities of crews which are for ethnic and/or cultural reasons more (or less) vulnerable to fall victims of pirates off Somalia. Such groups (if there are any) would in effect indirectly ‘support’ Somali piracy, and for this reason, they could be considered as ‘passively supportive crews’. The analysis focuses on the crew composition of the attacked vessels with special interest cast upon those ships (meaning the crews) which eventually succumbed to Somali pirates and were in the end seajacked.     

神经网络模型在港口吞吐量预测中的应用与误差分析

应用神经网络BP算法对杭州港的吞吐量预测实例进行了详细分析。通过对网络各种参数的调试与组合得出,当隐含层节点数为15,训练控制误差为0.035,分级迭代级数为4级,平滑因子参数为0.2,学习速率参数为1.5时,网络性能最佳。将网络预测结果与时间序列和回归分析2种方法进行了比较,得出神经网络方法在短期预测中要优于传统方法。通过对模型预测误差产生原因的简要分析,得出神经网络方法并不适用于吞吐量长期预测。最后对其应用过程中可能存在的一些问题提出了建议。     

NTSM控制的AUV路径跟踪控制研究

针对非线性欠驱动自治水下机器人（Autonomous underwater vehicle，缩写为AUV），提出了一种基于非奇异终端滑模（Non—singular terminal sliding mode，缩写为NTSM）控制的鲁棒路径跟踪控制方法。在跟踪控制系统中，采用的参考变量为非时间量，摆脱了时间因素的影响，有利于提高AUV在不确定环境中的跟踪能力。应用指数趋近律进行NTSM控制器设计，能保证系统状态在有限时间内到达平衡点。数值仿真结果验证了该控制律的路径跟踪效能。     

基于回声状态网络的船舶摇荡连续预报方法研究

回声状态网络（ ESNS）是一种新型递归神经网络,可通过对有限的已知样本进行训练,建立非线性模型来预报未知样本。该算法在解决非线性问题时具有一定优势。无需知道海浪的先验信息和船舶航行姿态的状态方程,仅利用实测的船舶横摇、纵摇历史数据,寻求规律即可进行实测摇荡数据的极短期预报。仿真结果表明,该算法在预报15 s以内可达到较高的预报精度,通过预报窗口的平移,可以进行连续在线预报。     

Preoperational ocean forecasting in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea: Implementation and evaluation of the models and selection of the atmospheric forcing

Within the framework of several local and international programs, a quasi-operational ocean-forecasting system for the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea has been established and evaluated through a series of preoperational tests. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used for simulating and predicting the hydrodynamics while the Wave Model (WAM) is used for predicting surface waves. Both models were set up to allow varying resolution and multiple nesting. In addition, POM was set up to be easily relocatable to allow rapid deployment of the model for any region of interest within the Mediterranean Sea. A common requirement for both models is the need for atmospheric forcing. Both models require time varying wind or wind stress. In addition, the hydrodynamic model requires initial conditions as well as time dependent surface heat fluxes, fresh water flux, and lateral boundary conditions at the open boundaries. Several sources of atmospheric forcing have been assessed based on their availability and their impact on the quality of the ocean models' forecasts. The various sources include operational forecast centers, other research centers, as well as running an in-house regional atmospheric model. For surface waves, higher spatial and temporal resolution of the winds plays a central role in improving the forecasts in terms of significant wave height and the timing of various high wave events. For the hydrodynamics, using the predicted wind stress and heat fluxes directly from an atmospheric model can potentially produce short range ocean forecasts that are nearly as good as hindcasts forced with gridded atmospheric analyses. Finally, a high-resolution, nested version of the model has shown to be stable under a variety of forcing conditions and time scales, thus indicating the robustness of the selected nesting strategy. For the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean, at forecast lead times of up to 4 days the high-resolution model shows improved skill over the coarser resolution driving model when compared to satellite derived sea surface temperatures. Most of the error appears to be due to the analysis error inherent in the initial conditions.     

罗兰C TOA-ASF测量系统设计与实现

附加二次相位因子（ASF）是影响罗兰C导航/授时系统精度的主要因素。进行ASF修正主要有理论预测法和实测法两种。针对罗兰C到达时间ASF实测修正的需要,本文给出了ASF测量系统的测量原理和测量系统组成,详细介绍了测量系统的设置、软硬件设计。车载试验表明,该测量系统的设计是成功的,能够满足ASF实测的需要。     

Merchant fleet development by legislation: lessons from West and Central Africa

In the late 1960s and early 1970s, several developing maritime nations began to invoke their 'legitimate right' to carry, in their own vessels, cargo generated by their own import and export trades as one way to reverse their underdevelopment and dependency on traditional maritime nations. Consequently, they embarked on the establishment and development of national merchant fleets by means of cargo reservation legislation and flag discrimination practices. West and Central African states have pursued a vigorous policy of merchant fleet development for over two decades. This study examines some of the cargo reservation policies and flag discrimination practices in West and Central Africa and concludes that these two measures alone are insufficient to build up a significant merchant marine. Merchant fleet development depends equally on the resolution of problems such as shortage of ship finance or capital, disruptive bureaucratic politics among the state agencies concerned with shipping, low volume of trade, and contradictory and ambivalent fiscal and macroeconomic policies in these countries that impede the development of the maritime sector.     

Law enforcement in the ocean

The combating of the present great variety of criminal activities occurring at sea mainly involves measures to be taken on land, in particular in ports.However, also actual enforcement at sea will continue to play an essential (complementary) role. This article surveys the rules of international law governing law enforcement measures at sea. These rules are complex, because distinctions have to be made between the various jurisdictional zones at sea and between the positions of the flag state, the coastal state and the port state. Traditionally, ships in the high seas (all sea areas beyond a narrow band of territorial sea) were under the exclusive jurisdiction of the flag state. In an increasing number of situations, the coastal state now has law enforcement authority over foreign ships in expanded areas up to 200 nautical miles offshore. But apart from these situations, flag state jurisdiction still prevails beyond the territorial sea. This makes effective law enforcement difficult. In practice, many obstacles can be overcome by making more effective use of the authority of the port state, and by concluding new international agreements providing for specific enforcement systems.     

方便旗船舶对海运的影响

方便旗船是在一定历史条件下,国际经济、政治和各国航运立法等因素的综合性产物,其存在和发展有积极的一面,但从整体上看一些方便船籍国忽视了对方便旗船的有效管辖与管制,给世界航运经济带来一系列负面影响。介绍船舶入注方便旗的各种原因,阐述其所带来的种种弊端,最后介绍为提高其营运安全所采取的措施以及有关专家对正常登记国的建议。     

Long-term correlation structure of wave loads using simulation

This paper proposes a new method for combining the lifetime wave-induced sectional forces and moments that are acting on the ship structure. The method is based on load simulation and can be used to determine the exceedance probabilities of any linear and nonlinear long-term load combination. It can also be used to determine the long-term correlation structure between these loads in the form of the long-term correlation coefficients. They are essential part of the load combination procedures in design and strength evaluations as well as in the fatigue and reliability analysis of ship structures.The simulation method treats the non-stationary wave elevations during the ship’s entire life (long-term) as a sequence of different stationary Gaussian stochastic processes. It uses the rejection sampling technique for the sea state generation, depending on the ship’s current position and the season. Ship’s operational profile is then determined conditional on the current sea state and the ship’s position along its route. The sampling technique significantly reduces the number of sea state-operational profile combinations required for achieving the convergence of the long-term statistical properties of the loads. This technique can even be used in combination with the existing long-term methods in order to reduce the number of required weightings of the short-term CDFs. The simulation method does, however, rely on the assumption that the ship is a linear system, but no assumptions are needed regarding the short-term CDF of the load peaks.The load time series are simulated from the load spectra in each sea state, taking into account the effects of loading condition, heading, speed, seasonality, voluntary as well as involuntary speed reduction in severe sea states and the short-crested nature of the ocean waves. During the simulation procedure, special care has been given to maintaining the correct phase relation between all the loads. Therefore, time series of various load combinations, including the nonlinear ones, can be obtained and their correlation structure examined. The simulation time can be significantly reduced (to the order of minutes rather than hours and days) by introducing the seasonal variations of the ocean waves into a single voyage simulation. The estimate of the long-term correlation coefficient, obtained by simulating only a single voyage with the correct representation of seasonality, approaches the true correlation coefficient in probability. This method can be applied to any ship and any route, or multiple routes as long as the percentage of the ship’s total lifetime spent in each of them is known.A study has been conducted to investigate the effects of ship type, route and the longitudinal position of the loads on the values of the correlation coefficients between six different sectional loads; vertical, horizontal and twisting moments, as well as shear, horizontal and axial forces. Three ocean-going ship types have been considered; bulk carrier, containership and tanker, all navigating on one of the three busy ship routes; North America-Europe, Asia-North America and Asia-Europe. Finally, the correlation coefficient estimates have been calculated for five different positions along the ship’s length to investigate the longitudinal variation of the correlation coefficient.     

基于组合预测模型的世界海运周转量预测分析

世界海运周转量是衡量未来航运市场运力需求的直接体现,在确定航运市场和船舶市场的发展趋势方面具有关键作用。针对世界海运周转量受到众多复杂因素影响的现实,基于传统的单个预测方法,分别采用时间序列、灰色系统、神经网络方法对世界海运周转量进行预测,然后再对单个预测方法进行加权组合,建立组合预测模型进行海运周转量的预测,预测结果表明:组合预测模型能够得到更加可靠的结果。     

Factors influencing the choice of flag: empirical evidence

The aim of this paper is to analyse the decision-making process of shipowners when adopting flags of registration. More specifically, it is interested in examining the relative importance of the factors related to an individual company's decision to flag out. The decision to change flag is viwed as similar to any other strategic decision by a profit maximizing firm (shipping company) and therefore those variables which influence the attractiveness, for a given firm, of taking the flagging out decision are analysed. The approach is two-fold in that it employs both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The research is innovative in the sense that it uses an econometric approach and the analysis is based on original data which has been obtained by the authors via a questionnarie and personal interviews with members of the UK shipping industry. The results deal with two particular sectors namely the tanker and general cargo markets and provide an insight into the magnitude and significance of various factors which affect the choice of flag. It is able to provide indications of the likelihood of a particular vessel being flagged out under different cirumstaces and, further, to consider how changes in these circumstances might affect the probability of the event occuring. The paper is structured in six parts comprising an introduction, back ground, methodology, qualitative analysis, econometric analysis, and conclusions.     

基于主成分分析的舰船装备维修费组合预测

针对基于回归的组合预测模型,由于舰船装备维修费预测时可利用的样本小、可用的单项预测方法多,容易导致预测模型的数量比用于组合预测的样本数量多,出现回归系数无法估计的问题。在建立基于回归的舰船装备维修费组合预测模型前,首先对各单项预测方法预测结果进行主成分分析,建立舰船装备维修费实际值在选取主成分上的回归模型,给出基于主成分分析的组合预测模型;然后针对主成分分析中根据主成分的累积贡献率确定主成分数量具有一定的主观性,建议采用AIC确定主成分的数量;最后,采用实例对给出的方法进行分析和验证。结果表明:在舰船装备维修费组合预测中,该方法不仅解决了预测模型多于用来组合预测的样本数量问题,而且还可以解决单项预测方法之间的共线性问题,且其预测性能明显优于常用的组合预测模型。     

船舶轴系滑油中磨损铁屑含量预测方法

为有效解决船舶轴系滑油中的磨损铁屑含量预测与评价方面的问题,提出一种组合预测方法。为降低测量噪声对预测的影响,利用小波变换对测量序列进行降噪,选择Daubechies 4(Db4)作为小波基,结合软阈值函数对时间序列进行分解和重构,同时利用基于平滑度和均方根误差的复合指标确定最优的分解层数。采用非线性自回归神经网络(Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Neural Network,NARNN)进行预测分析,实现对变化趋势的预测和对保养时间的评估。以某船轴系滑油中的磨损铁屑含量历史数据为样本进行试验,结果表明该方法是有效的。     

Error correction of a predictive ocean wave model using local model approximation

Constructing models from time series with nontrivial dynamics is a difficult problem. The classical approach is to build a model from first principles and use it to forecast on the basis of the initial conditions. Unfortunately, this is not always possible. For example, in fluid dynamics, a perfect model in the form of the Navier–Stokes equations exists, but initial conditions and accurate forcing terms are difficult to obtain. In other cases, a good model may not exist. In either case, alternative approaches should be examined. This paper describes an alternative approach of combining observations and numerical model results in order to produce an accurate forecast. The approach is based on application of a method inspired by chaos theory for building nonlinear models from data called Local Models. Embedding theorem based on the time lagged embedded vectors is the basis for the local model. This technique is used for analysis and updating of numerical model output variables to forecast and correct the errors created by numerical model. The local model approximation is a powerful tool in the forecasting of chaotic time series and has been employed for wave prediction in a forecasting horizon from a few hours to 24 h. The efficacy of the local model as an error correction tool (by combining the model predictions with the observations) compared with the predictions of linear auto regressive models has been brought up. In the present study, the parameters driving the local model are optimized using evolutionary algorithms.     

海流要素辅助航行决策的区划技术研究

由于很难得到对任何海区满足需要的时空尺度、精度的海洋环境要素预报结果,因此,了解某海洋环境要素的区域特性也是很有参考价值的.为了给船舶航行提供有效的信息支持,文章以对船舶的航速和航向影响较大的海流为例,分析了海流预报技术在满足应用需求上的不足,提出了利用主因子分析技术对海流样本数据进行研究的方案,并基于此方案给出了东海、南海海域海流要素信息区划结果,为船舶航行决策提供信息指导.     

Multigrid state vector for data assimilation in a two-way nested model of the Ligurian Sea

A system of two nested models composed by a coarse resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea, an intermediate resolution model of the Provençal Basin and a high resolution model of the Ligurian Sea is coupled with a Kalman-filter based assimilation method. The state vector for the data assimilation is composed by the temperature, salinity and elevation of the three models. The forecast error is estimated by an ensemble run of 200 members by perturbing initial condition and atmospheric forcings. The 50 dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) are taken as the error covariance of the model forecast. This error covariance is assumed to be constant in time. Sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) are assimilated in this system.