风险管理在降低地铁造价中的作用

地铁建设中的风险是由地铁项目的技术经济特点决定的,如何加强地铁建设中的风险管理、降低工程造价、确保建设目标的实现,是一个迫切需要解决的问题.文章论述了地铁建设中的风险管理基本流程,包括风险识别、风险分析和评估、制定风险管理对策以及对风险管理的监控;并重点论述了加强设计风险和施工风险管理对降低地铁工程造价的重要作用.     

抓住轨道交通发展机遇 建设共同管道:台北市的经验启示

市政共同管道具有美化城市景观、梳理城市管道、降低地震二次灾害等优点,但存在造价高、产权划分难等问题,目前国内还未大面积推广使用。台湾台北市将共同管道的规划建设与地铁规划建设相结合,能够降低共同管道建设的造价费。建议我国大城市借鉴台北市的经验,抓住轨道交通发展机遇,在大城镇或者人口稠密地区推广共同管道。     

基于贵阳地铁运营的城市物流运输系统研究

为有效缓解交通拥堵问题,降低能耗,同时提高城市物流运输效率,结合贵阳地铁运营情况,对基于地铁的城市物流运输系统进行定性定量研究。首先,分析地铁物流优缺点;其次,分析贵阳地铁运营建设现状与贵阳地铁开展地铁物流的基础能力;最后,基于层次分析法—模糊评价法分析配送中心的选择,以期该研究思路为基于地铁的城市物流运输系统建设提供参考。     

轨道交通建设前期工作对工程造价的影响分析

结合部分城市轨道交通前期工作的实际,介绍了轨道交通建设中线网规划、线路沿线土地利用规划的制定、客流预测以及线路敷设方式的确定等前期工作对地铁造价不同的影响方式和影响程度,提出了降低前期投资的几个方法和建议。     

关于地铁结构耐久性综合模拟试验站的构想

文章针对地铁结构耐久性研究现状和存在的问题,引进环境模拟试验理论,分析了地铁结构耐久性的影响因素、影响水平及环境模拟参数,提出了一种建设地铁结构耐久性综合模拟试验站的构想。依托综合模拟试验站开展地铁结构耐久性研究可进一步提升地铁建设及运营维修技术水平。     

浅谈控制地铁工程投资,降低工程造价

本文根据上海市地铁２号线一期工程投资估算，批准初步设计概算投资额分析，阐述控制地铁工程投资，降低工程造价首先加强工程建设前期可行性研究投资估算和初步设计概算编制，其次要加强工程招标阶段管理和加强工程承包合同管理；而后建设单位需实行工程项目投资包干制和工程建设实行控制全过程社会监理等五个要素，努力降低工程造价，把我国地铁工程建设推向新高潮。     

温州能否开动“空中巴士”?

"目前温州市的道路资源相对紧张,将路面划出快速公交道这一举措不太现实;而‘空中巴士’的建设则能避免占用大量城市道路,更能便捷地疏散客流。"温州市治堵办主任、住建委主任周守权在接受媒体采访时阐述温州最终选择"空中巴士"的缘由。有分析称,在温州建设地铁预估每公里造价在8～10亿元,成本较"空中巴士"大。土质条件类似的杭州,地铁1号线每公里造价在6亿元。因此,选择"空中巴士"就成为明智之举     

城市准快速公交系统的经济优势

<正> 一、慎重考虑修建地铁问题 据有关部门资料,全国35个百万人口以上的大城市中有20个选择建地铁,这些城市到“十五”期末的建设总量约为450公里左右,按每公里造价5亿元计算,所需建设资金高达2250亿元。如此高额的建设资金对刚刚踏入小康的我国而言,不能不说是沉重的负担;更何     

地铁工程施工中的成本管理与控制策略分析

在新时代背景下,国家经济水平明显提高,对交通设施建设也提出更为严格的要求,尤其是对地铁工程施工而言,建设的情况、进度等将直接影响城市的可持续发展。地铁属于地下工程,因而造价成本往往较高,主要涵盖人力、物力及财力等方面。只有把控好成本管理工作,才能最大程度地满足各类需求,为后续工作的进行奠定基础。     

影响铁路隧道工程造价的因素及控制措施分析

为了保障铁路隧道工程造价管理工作的合理性,从预算编制、方案设计、施工建设等角度出发,阐述铁路隧道工程造价研究的背景与意义,分析造价偏差的成因,并提出相应的造价控制措施,为相关工作的开展提供有力的参考依据。     

What determines rail transit passenger volume? Implications for transit oriented development planning

Transit oriented development (TOD) has been an important topic for urban transportation planning research and practice. This paper is aimed at empirically examining the effect of rail transit station-based TOD on daily station passenger volume. Using integrated circuit (IC) card data on metro passenger volumes and cellular signaling data on the spatial distribution of human activities in Shanghai, the research identifies variations in ridership among rail transit stations. Then, regression analysis is performed using passenger volume in each station as the dependent variable. Explanatory variables include station area employment and population, residents’ commuting distances, metro network accessibility, status as interchange station, and coupling with commercial activity centers. The main findings are: (1) Passenger volume is positively associated with employment density and residents’ commuting distance around station; (2) stations with earlier opening dates and serving as transfer nodes tend to have positive association with passenger volumes; (3) metro stations better integrated with nearby commercial development tend to have larger passenger volumes. Several implications are drawn for TOD planning: (1) TOD planning should be integrated with rail transit network planning; (2) location of metro stations should be coupled with commercial development; (3) high employment densities should be especially encouraged as a key TOD feature; and (4) interchange stations should be more strategically positioned in the planning for rail transit network.     

Marseilles integrated transport system

To be fully effective, metro lines must be connected with other modes of transport. This principle has been applied in the city of Marseilles, France. First, a very good interchange between the two metro lines and the national and suburban railway has been developed in the Saint-Charles main railway station. This interchange connects with the adjacent intercity bus terminal. Second, at every metro station, access facilities and neighborhood development were planned. Third, bus stations and car parks were installed at main rail stations. All this was made possible by early coordinated planning.     

The impact of metro services on housing prices: a case study from Beijing

Assessment of the impact of metro systems on housing prices is important for financing transport infrastructure via value capture. This paper provides evidence for this relationship, focusing particularly on the effects of metro services, and uses the large city of Beijing, China, as a case study. A spatial error model was applied to 2835 samples of online property sales data obtained in January 2016. Three transport service indicators associated with metro transfers and waiting times were explored: (1) metro headway, (2) access to different metro lines and (3) accessibility to employment opportunities. The results show that areas with more employment opportunities via public transit have higher housing prices than other areas. Shorter metro headways are positively related to housing prices near stations. Housing prices for neighborhoods having access to more than one metro line within 800 m-buffer area are higher than those without access to metro lines, controlling for number of accessible jobs within 30 min. This study sheds light on the importance of metro services on housing prices. It has implications for further research and for the planning policies of metro-dependent cities.

     

Metro disruption management: Optimal initiation time of substitute bus services under uncertain system recovery time

Determining the initiation time of substitute bus (SB) services is critical for metro disruption management, especially under uncertain recovery time. This study develops a mathematical formulation to determine the optimal initiation time (OIT) of SB services by trading-off their initiation cost and passenger delay cost, thereby minimizing the total system cost. Given the probability distribution of metro disruption duration, we determine the OIT by formulating an optimization problem to minimize the expected total system cost. We then conduct sensitivity analyses of the initiation cost of SB services, passenger value of time, and SB services rate. The results show that SB services ought to be activated only if the metro incident lasts longer than a certain time interval, depending on the factors mentioned earlier, and the OIT should advance with the predicted incident duration. This paper derives analytical results for the case of linear passenger arrival, and determines the results numerically for the case of non-linear passenger arrival when analytical closed-form solutions are not available. The findings will facilitate transit operators to develop response plans in the aftermath of a metro disruption.     

Developing Metro Systems in the People’s Republic of China: Policy and Gaps

Rapid urbanization has taken place in China since the Open Policy in 1978. In face of the growing demand for mobility in large cities, new metro systems were developed in large cities like Guangzhou and Shanghai. At present, there are seven cities with 10 metro lines under construction. What are the policy issues and major challenges of developing metro systems in China? This paper systematically reviews the current situation and highlights three major gaps that Chinese cities have to overcome in planning metro systems. They are the technology gap, the financing gap and the affordability gap. A discussion of these gaps in the Chinese context leads us to the conclusion that early planning and careful studies are important in the development of metro systems in China. Moreover, the existing official criteria (population and economic power) for approving the building of metro systems are insufficient and should be supplemented by more vigorous evaluation criteria.     

地铁设备管理用房变频多联体空调通风模式研究

通过对全空气系统及变频多联体复合空调系统的分析和比较,以上海某地铁车站为例,对两种空调方式在初期投资及运行维护费用方面作了分析和研究。为地铁设备管理用房最佳空调通风模式的选择提供参考。     

深圳地铁2222标施工成本分析与风险防范

地铁施工已经进入了微利时代,亏损项目比比皆是。深圳地铁2222标段隧道施工出现了巨额亏损,充分说明了地铁施工也是成本高风险专业施工,并非"金隧银桥"。文章通过全面、系统地分析深圳地铁2222标段施工成本,计算出各项施工成本指标,总结出施工过程中成本风险控制方法,提出了地铁隧道施工成本风险的防范措施。     

An integrated Bayesian approach for passenger flow assignment in metro networks

This paper proposes an integrated Bayesian statistical inference framework to characterize passenger flow assignment model in a complex metro network. In doing so, we combine network cost attribute estimation and passenger route choice modeling using Bayesian inference. We build the posterior density by taking the likelihood of observing passenger travel times provided by smart card data and our prior knowledge about the studied metro network. Given the high-dimensional nature of parameters in this framework, we apply the variable-at-a-time Metropolis sampling algorithm to estimate the mean and Bayesian confidence interval for each parameter in turn. As a numerical example, this integrated approach is applied on the metro network in Singapore. Our result shows that link travel time exhibits a considerable coefficient of variation about 0.17, suggesting that travel time reliability is of high importance to metro operation. The estimation of route choice parameters conforms with previous survey-based studies, showing that the disutility of transfer time is about twice of that of in-vehicle travel time in Singapore metro system.     

Characterizing metro networks: state,form, and structure

The broad goal of this paper is to characterize the network feature of metro systems. By looking at 33 metro systems in the world, we adapt various concepts of graph theory to describe characteristics of State, Form and Structure; these three characteristics are defined using new or existing network indicators. State measures the complexity of a network; we identify three phases in the development of transit networks, with mature systems being 66% completely connected. Form investigates the link between metro systems and the built environment, distinguishing networks oriented towards regional accessibility, local coverage or regional coverage. Structure examines the intrinsic properties of current networks; indicators of connectivity and directness are formulated. The method presented is this paper should be taken as a supplement to traditional planning factors such as demand, demography, geography, costs, etc. It is particularly useful at the strategic planning phase as it offers information on current and planned systems, which can then be used towards setting a vision, defining new targets and making decision between various scenarios; it can also be used to compare existing systems. We also link the three characteristics to transit line type and land-use; overall the presence of tangential and/or (semi)-circumferential lines may be key. In addition, we have been able to identify paths of development, which should be strongly considered in future projects.     

对建成地铁车站结构改造设计与施工的数值模拟分析

对已建地铁车站进行技术改造是一项非常复杂、风险极大的工程,需对改造结构进行技术评估,并涉及对原结构设计内力和位移附加增量的有效控制。文章针对苏州地铁1号线金鸡湖西站已建成的地下车站的围护、主体结构局部改造设计与施工存在的风险,运用有限元数值模拟分析预测结构附加应力和变位,为控制改造施工安全提出了结构构造措施和监测措施等合理化建议,可供类似工程提供借鉴。