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《中国航海》2017,(3)
在概述现有溢油风险评估方法的基础上,提出基于层次分析的模糊综合评估模型的潜在优势,详细介绍其构建方法,并以舟山岙山石油储运库区为例进行应用示范。建立适合的溢油风险评估指标体系,确立评估模型的因素集和评估集及各指标的隶属度和权重,利用层次分析法对所建指标体系进行逐级评估,得到模型综合评估结果。结果表明:在设定作业情景下,岙山库区综合溢油风险介于较小风险与中度风险之间。通过对各级指标风险值进行深入分析,进一步识别其中的重点潜在溢油风险隐患,并提出有针对性的溢油风险防范建议。模型的建立和应用能为岙山石油储运库区及其他存在多风险源的海域的溢油风险评估与防范提供科学指导和技术支持。 相似文献
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为科学合理评估区域船舶溢油污染风险,在溢油风险评估方法中引入网格化管理技术。本文基于网格化管理技术,分别在区域网格划分方法和溢油污染风险计算方法上开展研究,提出了基于网格化管理的区域性溢油风险评估方法。并以浙江海事局管辖海域为例,在综合考虑溢油事故概率、溢油规模、环境资源敏感性的基础上,得到辖区每个网格的溢油污染风险大小,进而确定辖区溢油高风险区。最后,根据目前我国海事管理现状,提出相关建议。 相似文献
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船舶溢油事故不仅会造成经济损失,还会对海洋环境造成严重破坏。进行船舶溢油风险评估和预测,防止船舶溢油事故的发生具有重要意义。大量的统计数据表明,船舶溢油事故的发生与船舶因素、环境因素和人为因素等密切相关。因此,进行船舶溢油事故风险评估时必须要综合考虑多种因素的占比和概率。本文采用灰色理论技术建立船舶溢油风险评估模型,结合海域实测数据进行模型的修正,实现了海域内船舶溢油风险的评估和预测。 相似文献
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ABSTRACTRecently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage. 相似文献
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考虑浅水影响的航速测量不确定度分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
受实船试航水域水深的影响,对于深吃水的大型船舶航速测量结果必须采用适当的方法进行航速的浅水修正.本文采用GUM测量不确定度分析方法,以某大型油轮为例,对考虑浅水影响的航速测量进行了不确定度分析. 相似文献
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国内溢油回收船现状及溢油回收装置选型研究 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
针对当前海上溢油风险的日益增加,以及防污染对专业溢油回收设备及专业溢油回收船的需求,介绍了目前国内溢油回收船的现状,并对国内外溢油回收装置的特点进行了分析比较,希望为用户在选择溢油回收设备及建设专业溢油回收船方面起到指导作用。 相似文献
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温州状元岙化工码头工程潮流泥沙数模研究 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
采用水动力泥沙条件、底床冲淤演变分析及二维潮流泥沙数值模拟手段,对拟建的温州港状元岙港区化工码头工程方案进行了研究。研究结果表明:(1)工程海区潮汐属于正规半日潮类型,为强潮海区;(2)工程海区潮流性质属于不规则半日浅海潮流,潮流运动呈往复流形式;(3)工程海域深槽多年来在波浪潮流作用下一直处于稳定状态;(4)规划的化工码头走向与涨落潮流走向基本一致;(5)规划的化工码头实施后工程附近海区的涨落潮流速呈增加趋势,码头前沿会略有冲刷;(6)化工码头建设对锚地流场没有影响;(7)化工码头工程方案是合理可行的。 相似文献
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船舶舱室布局所涉的评价指标通常具有不确定性,诸如环境载荷等参数通常以不确定性的随机变量形式参与计算,且其概率分布的期望及方差等指标往往也是不确定的。本文采用矩不确定分布鲁棒优化方法,解决含矩不确定参数的船舶舱室布局min-max优化问题。将各舱室的全局位置参数、相对位置参数和质量分布参数加权整合为目标函数,建立全船范围内的舱室布局DRO-MU优化模型,采用拉格朗日对偶原理将其转为确定的半定规划问题以便求解。算例验证了本文方法的合理性与优越性,该方法针对性地用于解决含矩不确定参数的船舶舱室布局问题具有鲜明特点。 相似文献
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Recently, the melting of Arctic sea ice and development of maritime technology are enabling the regular voyages in Arctic waters. However, the Arctic maritime transportation system (AMTS) is a complex and dynamic system with respect to human, technical, environmental and organizational issues. For example, ships operating in Arctic waters suffer severe weather conditions, fully and partially ice-covered waters, and are also difficult to search and rescue in ice-covered Arctic waters due to remoteness from lands. These risk factors will influence the safety and security of ships operating in Arctic waters. For this, this paper identifies potential risk influencing factors (RIFs) for the AMTS from human, technical (ship), environmental and organizational aspects. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to analyze the hierarchical relationships and calculate the relative importance of the selected RIFs. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved in the comprehensive analysis of RIFs for the AMTS, fuzzy sets are incorporated into AHP analysis to represent and treat the epistemic uncertainty. The identified critical RIFs in this study can be used to propose specific guidance for the operations of crews on board, ship owners, and ship managers. 相似文献
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In response to the development of deep-sea oil and gas resources, which require a high degree of cooperation by crude oil transportation equipment, a new type of ship known as the cargo transfer vessel(CTV) has been developed. To provide a theoretical reference for the design and equipment of the CTV's dynamic positioning system, in this paper, we take the new deepwater CTV as the study object and theoretically and numerically analyze its operation, wind load, current load, wave load,and navigational resistance in a range of Brazilian sea conditions with respect to its positioning and towing modes. We confirm that our proposed method can successfully calculate the total environmental load of the CTV and that the CTV is able to operate normally under the designed sea conditions. 相似文献