船体结构最优风险评估维护计划（英文）

Various structures such as marine structures age over time. In order to always maintain safety conditions, maintenance processes including inspection and repair should be implemented on them. Corrosion and fatigue cracks are two main factors that reduce the ultimate strength of the ship's hull girder over time and thus increase the probability and risk of failure. At the time of inspection,the structural conditions must be checked so that, if necessary, the required repairs can be done on it. The main objective of this paper is to provide optimized maintenance plans of the ship structure based on probabilistic concepts with regard to corrosion and fatigue cracks. Maintenance activities increase the operational costs of ships; therefore, it is advisable to inspect and repair in the optimal times. Optimal maintenance planning of the ship structure can be conducted by formulating and solving a multi-objective optimization problem. The use of risk as a structural performance indicator has become more common in recent years. The objective functions of the optimization problem include minimizing the structure's lifecycle maintenance costs, including inspection and repair costs, and also minimizing the maximum risk of structural failure during the ship's life. In the following,to achieve better responses, reliability index has been added to the problem as the third objective function. The multi-objective optimization problem is solved using genetic algorithms. The proposed risk-based approach is applied to the hull structure of a tanker ship.     

Prioritization of failure risk in subsea flexible pipes via data envelopment analysis

Risk-based inspection is nowadays the predominant approach to structural integrity assurance in complex engineering systems, such as those designed for and operated in deepwater environments. One of the major tasks in risk-based planning is risk ranking of the components comprising an engineering system. In this paper, a mathematical model based on data envelopment analysis is developed for this purpose, whereby two types of weights are employed: subjective judgmental weights which are provided as input, and objective which constitute the output of the model. The use of the mathematical model is illustrated in a real world system of subsea flexible pipes, which operational in the south Atlantic Shelf off the Southeast Coast of Brazil.     

基于风险的船体结构无损检测功能的分级

基于船舶结构传统的经验基础上的检测方法不但带来较高的费用,而且还会产生不必要的检测.针对上述问题,本文提出了基于风险的船舶结构无损检测功能分级方法,采用检测概率、错误识别概率和裂纹出现概率度量检测功能,并修正了错误识别概率的取值范围.根据风险值对无损检测功能进行了分级,研究了风险值随检测概率、错误识别概率和裂纹出现概率的变化规律,并分析了风险值对检测费用、维修费用及失效费用的敏感性.在此基础上,将基于风险的船舶结构无损检测功能分级方法应用于优化检测策略,并用算例证明了文中所提方法的有效性.     

基于故障类型的舰船装备系统最优检测与预防性维修周期的确定

结合系统维修的费用参数和故障特点,按单位维修周期费用最小原则建立一种综合考虑不同故障类型的系统检测与预防性维修优化模型,针对一个故障时间服从二参数威布尔分布的舰船装备系统,计算各种形状参数和隐蔽发生概率下的最优检测和预防性维修周期。     

基于风险评价的装备维修经费预算研究

从目前部队实行"零基预算"的实际出发,针对装备维修策略不够合理、维修经费预算不够准确,普遍存在装备维修不足和维修过剩的问题,采用基于风险的维修策略对当前运行装备的失效风险进行评价,在此基础上进行装备维修决策,制定装备维修计划,并在汇总和优化装备维修计划的基础上,制定符合部队实际需要的装备维修经费预算.     

基于风险的船体结构检测及维护研究综述

本文简要地分析了基于风险的检测及维护的基本概念及基于风险的船体结构检测及维护研究的重要意义.分别从基于可靠性的检测及维护、基于风险的检测及维护和优化检测和维护三个层次,详细综述了国内外关于基于风险的船体结构检测及维护研究的主要成果和进展,最后指出了目前基于风险的船体结构检测及维护研究要解决的关键问题和今后的研究方向.     

Rail infrastructure,ITS and access charges

This paper presents an overview of the principles and technologies relating to railway infrastructure. Specifically this paper includes rail–wheel contact, inspection and maintenance of rail. Intelligent transport systems (ITS) and their applications for the purposes of the railway transport in Europe are discussed. The potential, levels of development, technological and operational characteristics of the European Railway Traffic Management System (ERTMS) are presented. Finally, a discussion on methodologies, principles and current practices for access charging in Europe is provided.     

Predictive analyses of the integrity of corroded pipelines based on concepts of structural reliability and Bayesian inference

In this paper, structural reliability concepts are used in conjunction with limit state functions proposed in the Recommended Practice DNV-RP-F101 (2010) to evaluate the probability of failure of corroded pipelines during their lifetimes. The model takes into account the natural spread of material properties, geometric and operational parameters, and the uncertainties associated with the sizing of eventual corrosion defects. Bayesian reliability concepts are used to estimate the evolution of a pre-defined distribution of defects obtained, for instance, from an inspection campaign. By comparing the predicted probability of failure with the reliability acceptance criteria, the operator can schedule defect repairs and establish inspection intervals with more confidence. This proposed methodology can provide the basis to develop a risk based maintenance strategy of pipeline systems.     

导管架平台结构风险评估方法研究

文章提出了一种导管架平台在位风险评估方法,以惠州HZ32-2平台为例,首先基于倒塌分析法计算平台结构极限承载能力及构件重要度,并根据API规范中环境载荷的计算方法进行平台结构静力状态下的可靠性分析,最后建立基于风险的结构强度评估方案。计算结果表明本方法可为完善平台结构风险评估及优化平台检验计划提供重要参考。     

An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance.     

船舶产品三维设计仿真验证技术研究与应用

船舶产品结构复杂、系统繁多,产品信息多样且数据量庞大,在设计阶段发现并解决问题,是提高设计质量的重要环节.通过梳理船舶产品三维设计仿真验证的需求,提出了仿真验证技术方案,阐述了船舶产品三维设计仿真验证的关键技术及解决途径,开发了仿真验证系统,并在多型JC产品中进行了工程应用,对及早发现建造、使用、维护等过程中产生的问题具有重要意义.     

贮存系统的联合维修策略

为了保证贮存系统的可用性,需要对其故障与否进行检测,针对该问题提出了包含定期检查和预先更换的维修策略。为了协调部件更换和备件供应,联合考虑了连续检查的（0,1）订货策略,所以联合维修策略包括维修策略和备件供应策略。基于联合策略建立了一个规划模型,在满足可用度约束条件下最小化平均总费用。基于更新过程,推导了贮存系统服从一般寿命分布的性能指标。以威布尔寿命分布为例,结果表明联合策略比独立策略更有效。     

高桩码头维护检测有关问题的探讨

指出了目前对高桩码头维护、检测的必要性和迫切性 ,并对码头结构的破损类型、检测的内容及方法、评估的途径进行了较详细的探讨 ,同时还提出了检测周期的建议。     

青岛某重力式码头的变形检测与分析

针对1970年建设的青岛某重力式码头的变形,制定检测方案,分析检测结果,并进行码头稳定性验算。结果表明:码头在设计低水位时的抗滑、抗倾稳定性以及基床底部土层承载力方面均存在不足,码头有安全稳患。根据检测结果,提出加固维修的建议。     

激光技术在船舶维修中的应用

文章通过近几年来工厂在船舶维修业上的发展，阐述了激光技术在船舶维修中的应用，使船舶维修质量得到了进一步提高。在海军装备维修保障及民船维修工程中，大量广泛地运用先进的科学技术，进行检验、确认、检测，必将使海军装备保障与民用船舶维修质量更加提高，修船业必将快速、稳定地发展。     

船舶建造焊缝无损检测信息管理系统的设计与实现

针对船舶企业焊缝无损检测(Nondestructive Testing, NDT)的问题,提出NDT信息化管理的必要性。通过焊缝库维护、焊工管理、NDT报验申请、检测结果录入、焊缝自动追踪和数据统计分析,实现对焊缝生命周期的追溯,可有效解决船舶企业手工管理NDT产生的信息分散混乱、无法追溯等弊端。     

深水定位系统的安全管理(英文)

Based on relevant in-service experience, this paper discusses how risks associated with station-keeping systems can be controlled through adequate design criteria, inspection, repair and maintenance practice, as well as quality assurance and control of the engineering processes. Particular focus must be placed on quantitative design for system robustness. The application of structural reliability analysis to quantify safety is briefly reviewed. In particular it was emphasized that reliability predictions based on normal uncertainties and variability yielded lower failure rates than those experienced for predictions of hulls and catenary mooring systems; gross errors in design, fabrication and operation were responsible. For this reason the broad safety management approach mentioned above was proposed. Moreover, it was found that this approach needed to be supported by a quantitative risk assessment. Finally, the challenges in dealing with the effects of human factors in risk management are outlined, along with means to deal with them in a qualitative manner, by the so-called barrier method to limit risk.     

A simplified method for reliability- and integrity-based design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems

This paper presents a simplified method for the reliability- and the integrity-based optimal design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems. The design of structural systems is transitioning from the conventional methods, which are based on factors of safety, to more advanced methods, which require calculation of the failure probability of the designed system for each project. Using factors of safety to account for the uncertainties in the capacity (strength) or demands can lead to systems with different reliabilities. This is because the number and arrangement of components in each system and the correlation of their responses could be different, which could affect the system reliability. The generic factors of safety that are specified at the component level do not account for such differences. Still, using factors of safety, as a measure of system safety, is preferred by many engineers because of the simplicity in their application. The aim of this paper is to provide a simplified method for design of engineering systems that directly involves the system annual failure probability as a measure of system safety, concerning system strength limit state. In this method, using results of conventional deterministic analysis, the optimality factors for an integrity-based optimal design are used instead of generic safety factors to assure the system safety. The optimality factors, which estimate the necessary change in average component capacities, are computed especially for each component and a target system annual probability of system failure using regression models that estimate the effect of short and long term extreme events on structural response. Because in practice, it is convenient to use the return period as a measure to quantify the likelihood of extreme events, the regression model in this paper is a relationship between the component demands and the annual probability density function corresponding to every return period. This method accounts for the uncertainties in the environmental loads and structural capacities, and identifies the target mean capacity of each component for maximizing its integrity and meeting the reliability requirement. In addition, because various failure modes in a structural system can lead to different consequences (including damage costs), a method is introduced to compute optimality factors for designated failure modes. By calculating the probability of system failure, this method can be used for risk-based decision-making that considers the failure costs and consequences. The proposed method can also be used on existing structures to identify the riskiest components as part of inspection and improvement planning. The proposed method is discussed and illustrated considering offshore mooring systems. However, the method is general and applicable also to other engineering systems. In the case study of this paper, the method is first used to quantify the reliability of a mooring system, then this design is revised to meet the DNV recommended annual probability of failure and for maximizing system integrity as well as for a designated failure mode in which the anchor chains are the first components to fail in the system.     

海底管道巡检船研发设计

简要介绍自主研发设计的"海底管道巡检船"船型的主要技术性能和技术特点。该船定位为国内首艘海底管道巡检船,搭载专业声学探测装置,抗风浪性能良好,能够持久巡线并应急响应,其各项功能均针对渤海海域海底管道运维需求进行设计,能够保障海底管道安全运营,排除隐患以避免或最大限度降低管道泄漏造成的损失。     

A Bayesian model to assess rail track geometry degradation through its life-cycle

One of the major drawbacks in rail track investments is the high level of uncertainty in maintenance, renewal and unavailability costs for the Infrastructure Managers (IM) during the life-cycle of the infrastructure. Above all, rail track geometry degradation is responsible for the greatest part of railway infrastructure maintenance costs. Some approaches have been tried to control the uncertainty associated with rail track geometry degradation at the design stage, though little progress has improved the investors' confidence. Moreover, many studies on rail track life-cycle cost modelling tend to forget the dynamic perspective in uncertainty assessments and do not quantify the expected reduction of the uncertainty associated with degradation parameters as more inspection data is collected after operation starts.