基于全寿期管理的概率风险评估在舰船装备研制风险管理中的应用

随着数字化造船技术的发展,如何利用定量风险分析方法进行舰船装备研制过程的风险控制,是我国舰船装备研制中面临的新问题。针对这个问题,本文提出了一种结合概论风险评估和全寿命周期数据管理的风险控制模式,并对这种风险控制模式下的风险数据收集、风险模型和风险知识库建立及完善等几个重要方面进行了深入分析,最终提出了进行有效风险管理的3个原则。     

舰船研制复杂度及其度量方法

以装备研制风险分析为出发点,结合案例明确了装备研制技术方案指标过高是研制中降性能、拖进度、涨费用等现象产生的根源,应从研制复杂度和成熟度对其进行分析;针对研制复杂度,引入复杂度的概念并结合海军舰船研制的实际情况,将舰船研制复杂度划分为静态和动态2种,对其概念、含义及度量方法分别进行探析;在研制复杂度和成熟度确定的基础上,可结合回归分析、神经网络等方法对装备研制风险进行有效评估,为武器装备论证工作提供辅助决策。     

海军舰船研制的技术风险来源及其后果分析

在通用风险分析基本原理的基础上,根据舰船各系统设备平行研制的客观需求以及所提出的"中等风险-高风险"转换原理,分析了舰船研制的技术风险来源及后果.系统收集了国外6型大中型水面舰船研制的有关数据,从中得出其技术风险特征数据及其风险后果,提出了研究结论和建议.     

舰船研制论证阶段的风险分析与评估

风险分析评估对舰船论证有非常重要的意义。介绍了目前舰船研制采用的风险分析评估方法,分析了其中的不足。针对舰船论证的特点,提出了舰船论证的风险分析评估方法,建立了相应的数学模型。     

舰船动力系统研制风险分析与评估研究

随着新研设备、新技术采用的比例不断增大,舰船动力系统研制的复杂性显著提高,所涉及的不确定因素也日益增多.因此,其所面临的风险以及风险所导致的损失规模也越来越大.为了促进风险管理方法和手段在舰船动力系统研制中的应用,本文进行了风险分析和风险评估研究.在归纳和总结现代项目管理理论和方法的基础上,分析了国内外武器研制中的风险管理方法和技术,探讨了舰船动力系统研制阶段的风险因素和各风险之间的相关关系,给出了不同风险因素定量分析和评估的一般方法,并通过实例,对某船动力系统方案进行了风险分析和评估应用研究.     

风险评估指数法在舰船装备故障风险分析中的应用

文章使用风险评估指数法对舰船装备故障的风险进行了分析,给出了风险评估指数矩阵,划分了舰船装备故障的高、中、低风险区;探讨了基于风险评估指数法进行的舰船装备故障风险分析在维修管理工作中的几点应用.     

基于GTST-MLD的舰船安全风险分析方法研究

舰船系统结构复杂，在使用过程中，存在着各方面的安全风险。嵌入主逻辑图（MLD）的目标树-成功树（GTST）的建模方法可以完整的描述系统各组成部分安全风险的关联关系和各要素交互作用的信息。文章论述了GTST-MLD模型的特点及其建模步骤，并且将它们运用到舰船系统的安全风险分析上，解决了舰船系统完备的安全风险模型建立的问题。     

舰船装备研制中的顶层设计

舰船装备的设计研究中越来越多地引入顶层设计的概念。但长期以来,在舰船装备发展过程中,对于顶层设计的内涵和任务并不十分明确。本文根据未来舰船装备体系和新型舰船装备发展的需求,分析军事需求变化与舰船装备顶层规划之间的联系,研究舰船装备总体工程和舰船装备系统工程的内在规律、彼此之间相互作用相互依赖的关系,对现代舰船装备研制过程中涉及的各方面问题进行系统工程分析,讨论舰船装备研制中顶层设计的目的、意义、基本概念和主要内容,提出舰船装备研制中的顶层设计应针对不同对象,给出了舰船装备发展战略和型号系统顶层设计的不同内容和基本过程。研究结果为在舰船研制中正确运用顶层设计提供了依据。     

舰船数字化制造系统的体系结构研究

数字化制造以其响应快、质量高、成本低和柔性好等特点,正成为推动21世纪制造业向前发展的主流.本文在分析舰船产品研制特点的基础上,根据海军装备研制的发展需求,提出了舰船数字化制造的体系结构,介绍了舰船数字化制造系统的共享数据平台及集团公司管理控制系统、数字化试验分析系统、数字化设计系统、数字化建造系统、配套设备数字化研制系统等综合集成应用系统结构.     

舰船装备维修费预测方法评价准则体系研究

针对舰船装备维修费预测效果评价仅采用单一的精度准则可能导致较大预测风险的缺陷,在分析现有预测评价准则研究现状的基础上,总结了现有的预测方法评价准则,并通过进一步结合对舰船装备维修费预测特点的分析,建立了适合于舰船装备维修费预测方法评价的准则体系。建立的准则体系有利于提高舰船装备维修费预测的可靠性,降低预测风险,为舰船装备全寿命费用预测和舰船装备维修工作提供可靠的基础。     

Impact scenario models for probabilistic risk-based design for ship–ship collision

A number of authors have proposed probabilistic risk based ship design for ship–ship collision, conditional to the local trading area of a vessel. The probability of collision and consequences are determined based on the traffic conditions in which a vessel is expected to operate. This paper investigates the adequacy of currently available models for impact scenarios, i.e. models linking the traffic conditions to the conditions at the moment of collision. An exploratory statistical model is presented to establish such a link. A probabilistic risk based design case study is performed for a fleet of RoPax vessels trading on a specified route in the Gulf of Finland. The available impact scenario models from the literature are compared with the developed probabilistic evasive maneuvering model. The results show that the impact scenario models have a very significant influence to the calculated hull breach probabilities. No well-justified impact scenario models are presently available and also the presented probabilistic evasive maneuvering model is burdened with uncertainty. Hence, to move toward a probabilistic risk based ship design paradigm for ship–ship collision in a local trading area, more focus and research is needed to establish a credible link.     

跨海大桥桥区航道智能助航系统研发

跨海大桥桥区航道是典型的船舶航行受限水域,船桥碰撞安全风险大,桥区航道智能助航技术有助于提高桥区航道安全保障水平。分析了桥区航道通航风险因素以及水文气象分布规律,按通航规则将水域划分为预警、警戒、航道等不同区块,构建了桥区航行的船舶动态领域风险辨识模型。研发了自主检测船舶动态并向其播发防撞预警信息的装置,以及自动管理和运行软硬件设施的桥区航道船舶避碰智能助航系统。该系统已应用在福建省平潭海峡大桥桥区航道,有效改善了桥区水域的航道通航安全形势。     

大型船舶航行的风险分析与风险控制

安全科学的发展要求从传统的事故管理转变为风险管理。在构建船舶航行系统风险的基础上,通过船舶航行事故统计和船舶航行作业规范化安全评估,对目前大型船舶航行的风险构成、影响因素进行定量研究,提出了大型船舶航行的风险矩阵,并就船舶航行的风险控制提出一些措施。     

实用船舶结构疲劳评估方法概要

船舶结构的疲劳评估是船舶力学的主要研究领域之一。本文对常用的船舶结构疲劳评估方法——船级社提出的简化方法、谱分析法、设计波法、断裂力学方法,以及概率S-N曲线和概率断裂力学方法进行了概述。首先分别对每种方法中的关键技术细节进行了较为详细的论述,给出了这些技术细节当前的处理方法及存在的主要问题。最后,对各方法进行了总结和概括,指出了每种方法的优缺点,并给出了每种方法未来的研究重点和发展方向。     

Analysis of ship drifting in a narrow channel using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data

With maritime transportation has played an important role in global economy development, ship traffic has become more congested. Therefore, ships navigate under risk conditions, and thus maritime accidents have occurred frequently. Especially, ship passing through a narrow channel is even more dangerous. Because, the ships are easy to be affected by external forces such as wind and currents that can cause ship drifts. Many latent risks are present during navigation. In order for the development of a sensible and appropriate traffic model for the safety and efficiency ship navigation, this study has focused on the actual ship behavior to understand the ship drift in the Kurushima Strait, Japan, which is one of the most dangerous routes in Japan. The analysis of ship behavior was carried out using the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. As a result, the ships drift was understood in detail, and the latent risk was unveiled when ships pass through the narrow route. Moreover, the risk areas were obtained and visualized by the ship drift behavior analysis. The obtained results can be applied to ensure safe navigation and the development of an eco-friendly and economy efficient for ship navigation.     

Structural design of process decks for floating production, storage and offloading units

This work analyzes the influence of ship motion and deformation on the structural design of decks to support production plants in floating production, storage and offloading units (FPSOs). These decks are space frames with lengths ranging from 30 to 100 mr, with a variable number of rigid supports linked to the ship hull. The deck and ship hull are modeled together for naval and structural analysis. A global, coupled analysis is performed considering the deck and ship structures; sea loads are evaluated by means of probabilistic methods.     

Performance characterisation for risk assessment of striking ship impacts based on struck ship damaged volume

Ship collision accidents are rare events but pose huge threat to human lives, assets, and the environment. Many researchers have sought for effective models that compute ship stochastic response during collisions by considering the variability of ship collision scenario parameters. However, the existing models were limited by the capability of the collision computational models and did not completely capture collision scenario, and material and geometric uncertainties. In this paper, a novel framework to performance characterisation of ships in collision involving a variety of striking ships is developed, by characterising the structural consequences with efficient response models. A double-hull oil carrier is chosen as the struck ship to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework. Response surface techniques are employed to generate the most probable input design sets which are used to sample an automated finite element tool to compute the chosen structural consequences. The resulting predictor-response relationships are fitted with suitable surrogate models to probabilistically characterise the struck ship damage under collisions. As demonstrated in this paper, such models are extremely useful to reduce the computational complexity in obtaining probabilistic design measures for ship structures. The proposed probabilistic approach is also combined with available collision frequency models from literature to demonstrate the risk tolerance computations.     

基于舰船受损体积的舰船撞击风险评估的性能特征（英文）

Ship collision accidents are rare events but pose huge threat to human lives, assets, and the environment. Many researchers have sought for effective models that compute ship stochastic response during collisions by considering the variability of ship collision scenario parameters. However, the existing models were limited by the capability of the collision computational models and did not completely capture collision scenario, and material and geometric uncertainties. In this paper, a novel framework to performance characterisation of ships in collision involving a variety of striking ships is developed, by characterising the structural consequences with efficient response models. A double-hull oil carrier is chosen as the struck ship to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework. Response surface techniques are employed to generate the most probable input design sets which are used to sample an automated finite element tool to compute the chosen structural consequences. The resulting predictor-response relationships are fitted with suitable surrogate models to probabilistically characterise the struck ship damage under collisions. As demonstrated in this paper, such models are extremely useful to reduce the computational complexity in obtaining probabilistic design measures for ship structures. The proposed probabilistic approach is also combined with available collision frequency models from literature to demonstrate the risk tolerance computations.     

智能船舶研发风险分析与控制

针对智能船舶研发的风险问题,在介绍智能船舶的概念及智能船舶特点的基础上,通过系统分析智能船舶研发的各种风险,着重从技术和财务2个方面分析风险的因素,提出风险控制的相关对策和措施,为我国企业研发智能船舶进行风险控制提供参考.     

AASHTO概率模型在船桥碰撞风险评估中的应用

近年来随着航道等级的提升,设计通航船舶尺度增大,要求的通航净空尺度增加,桥区通航水域条件发生显著变化。桥梁存在船撞风险,需对船撞桥梁风险实施评估、为实施防撞设施工程提供依据。国内外因船舶撞击而导致桥梁垮塌或严重破坏的事故逐渐增多,平均每年就有一座大型桥梁因为船舶撞击而遭受严重破坏甚至倒塌。北江航道乌石至三水河口航段经整治由Ⅳ级提升为Ⅲ级后,桥梁存在船撞风险。以船撞桥概率模型(AASHTO)为研究方法,分析了整治河段清远北江二桥参数对船撞桥概率的影响,计算了船舶撞击桥梁各涉水桥墩的年撞击概率,确定了存在较大船撞风险的桥梁与涉水桥墩,建立了船撞桥损伤概率模型,分析桥梁各部位抗撞能力、桥梁各部位船舶撞击力及各部位的年撞击频率,得出通航孔桥墩的年撞击倒塌频率。