基于互信息和贝叶斯网络的船舶碰撞风险预测研究

船舶碰撞事故对航行安全威胁严重,不仅会导致船舶、货物的损坏,还会对航道和水域环境造成污染,如果船上装载的石油、危化品等物质由于事故原因产生泄漏,更是会对临近水域及生态环境带来灾难性破坏。因此,对船舶(特别是危化品运输船舶)碰撞风险的预测和管理一直受到各界的重视。本文在全面分析船舶碰撞事故风险因素的基础上,利用互信息理论计算事故数据特征因素间互信息值,确定了各碰撞风险特征因素间的依赖关系,并最终建立了船舶碰撞险情的贝叶斯网络预测模型,以期为航运企业和航道管理单位的管理提供理论依据,从而减少船舶碰撞事故,保障我国航运业的安全、高效和绿色发展。     

航运业高风险的市场机理及其防范措施

<正> 航运业自古以来即被认为是一个高风险的行业,因为船舶在海上航行,随时都可能遇到风浪、海啸、雷电和浮冰的袭击。船舶载运能力大,一旦遭遇危险,可能造成的损失往往十分惊人。且船舶远离陆地,遭遇危险后施救的可能性不大、及时性较差。因此,早期航运业的高风险主要来自于自然因素。随着科技水平的提高、船舶安全性能得到改善、对风浪等自然因素的预测能力增强,加之通讯技术的进步,船舶与陆地之间的联系变得方便,有利于防范风险的发生、减少风险损失的程度,使航运业的自然风险相对减少。     

中国交通大事记(1995年7月份)

<正> 13日 本月4日,交通部安全监督局、交通部长江航务管理局等单位在武汉联合召开新闻发布会,宣布从今年10月1日起,长江下游船舶将实行分道航行。其目的是分割相反的通航船流,以减少船舶对遇的机会,减少横越船与顺流航道船的碰撞危险……,最大限度地避免碰撞事故的发生,为船舶的安全航行创造一个     

西江航道实行船舶定线制的可行性分析

船舶定线制是国际上通行的实行水上船舶交通管理的一种形式,它对于规范船舶的航路,避免船舶过多交叉航行,减少船舶交通安全事故具有重要意义。文章以西江实行船舶分边通航为例,对实行船舶定线进行了可行性分析,建议通过分流和分道来防止或减少船舶发生碰撞、搁浅、触礁等水上交通事故。     

数字·交通

<正>0控制日前,交通运输部安委会发布《交通运输安全生产事故报告(2013年)》(简称《报告》)。《报告》显示,2013年,全国道路、水路运输以及交通运输工程建设领域发生一次死亡3人及以上的安全生产事故280.5起(件)水路运输领域运输船舶与非运输船舶碰撞事故记为0.5件,死亡失踪1336人,同比分别下降25%和28.4%,安全生产形势稳中趋好。《报告》指出,2013年,交通运输安全生产事故防控取得初步成效,道路客运重特大事故降幅明显,实现了特别重大道路客运事故的"零控制";发生在国省干线公路的道路运输事故大幅下降,水上客运船舶事故多发态势得到有效遏制;道路运输车辆碰撞、追尾,水上交通商渔船碰撞等重点事故类型造成的人员伤亡显著减少。     

危险货物综合治理 船舶载运拉紧安全“红线”

正3月12日15时许,南通水道29号红浮附近"长迅17"与"锦航海6"碰撞事故,"长迅17"轮通过紧急过驳减载成功,无人员伤亡。"锦航海6"轮沉没,13名外省籍船员落水,经过紧张救助,目前7名船员获救、2人死亡,另有4名落水失踪船员仍在全力搜寻中,构成较大等级水上交通事故。这是今年三月发生的第四起船舶碰撞事故。安全防管无小事航运安全监管主体多,从业人员素质参差不一、运输装备技术水平差、通航环境较差、支持     

船舶溢油故障树分析与事故案例查询系统开发研究

根据故障树分析理论,基于MATLAB/GUI平台,构建了船舶溢油故障树分析与事故案例查询系统。该系统可实现针对船舶溢油事故发生原因和概率的定性和定量分析、及事故案例的多条件筛选查询功能。利用构建的系统对船舶碰撞导致溢油事故故障树模型进行了最小割集、顶事件概率和底事件重要度的求解分析,结果表明该系统操作简便,计算耗时少,结果准确,可以为船舶溢油事故风险分析提供辅助工具,具有很好的实用价值。     

新技术新工艺

正多能源游览船舶综合电力推进系统研发成功由集美大学承担的交通运输部应用基础(主干学科)研究项目"多能源船舶电力系统能量动态规划及控制策略研究"通过验收。项目采用太阳能、锂电池组及柴油发电机,结合电力推进技术,对三种不同应用环境下多能源电力系统的拓扑结构进行研究,提出了多重冗余技术和电压均衡技术的电池能量管理系统,设计了基于逻辑门限值的能量分配控制和动态规划调度策略,开发能量动态管理和控制系统,采用工业网络技术和信息技术,研发了太阳能船舶综合监视与报警系统,以及多能源游览船舶综合电力推进系统集成技术。项目研发的具有自主知识产权的     

别样的公益 助力极地科考事业 柳工:在地球的最南端彰显大爱精神

<正>8月10日,中国南北极考察战略合作伙伴暨柳工捐赠增爱极地研究专项基金签约仪式在上海举行。会上,广西柳工机械股份有限公司(以下简称柳工)与中国极地研究中心(以下简称极地中心)正式签署"中国南北极考察战略合作协议"。就此,柳工与极地中心正式上演了一场"冰雪奇缘",为极地科考公益事业贡献出极大努力。     

保险杆低速碰撞性能仿真研究

文章以某轿车前部保险杆做的结构碰撞模拟为例,通过对碰撞模型低速碰撞计算方法和建立保险杠有限元普适性模型,并对其进行非线性模拟分析和比较,得出增强保险杆耐撞性的规律。     

The Northwest Passage: A simulation

We model shipping through the Northwest Passage in northern Canada in order to see if reported recent ice thinning has made this route economic relative to the Panama Canal. Container shipping between Yokohama to New York and St. Johns, Newfoundland is simulated by VSLAM for the two routes using bluewater ships for the Panama Canal and identically sized Canadian Arctic Class 3 (CAC3) ships for the Northwest Passage. Each route is broken into a series of logical legs, and environmental conditions and wait times are assigned. Ice conditions are modeled from historical records. Average speed through the Northwest Passage shows little seasonal variation. Round trips per year are higher through the Northwest Passage. The required freight rate (RFR) to recover all costs including capital recovery is calculated. RFR is slightly lower for the St. Johns to Yokohama transit using the Northwest Passage, and higher for the New York to Yokohama route, as compared to the Panama Canal. Possible future thinning of Arctic ice would further improve the economics of the Northwest Passage.     

Estimating the environmental costs of port related emissions: The case of Kaohsiung

This study estimates the emission costs of ships and trucks in the Port of Kaohsiung, Taiwan, focusing mainly on particular matter and volatile organic compounds. By calculating annual ship and truck emissions we find that the major contributors are tankers, container ships and bulk ships and trucks. Using a bottom-up methodology, the combined environmental costs of ships and trucks are estimated to be over $123 million per year.     

Economic benefits of introducing LNG-fuelled ships for imported flour in South Korea

As the concerns about air pollution have steadily increased, the perception that ships are the source of pollutants and toxic emissions is also expanding. Thus, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is tightening maritime regulations to reduce air pollution from ships. Currently, the government and related industries are trying to replace heavy fuel oil with liquefied natural gas (LNG) to counter future IMO regulations. Since the use of LNG is expected to increase costs, it is necessary to estimate the social benefits to determine the legitimacy of the replacement. The purpose of this study is to analyse the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for products imported in LNG-fuelled ships using the contingent valuation method. Flour, the most of which is currently imported in South Korea, is chosen as the subject of empirical analysis. As a result, the mean additional WTP was KRW 571 (USD 0.51) per kg. This value corresponds to about 36% of the existing flour price. Therefore, South Korean households are willing to pay a considerable premium on the flour imported via LNG-fuelled ships. These results can serve as useful bases for future LNG bunkering-related policies.     

漓江旅游客船防抗雷雨大风的稳性分析

文章针对漓江旅游客船易受雷雨大风袭击的事故特点,分析了雷雨大风的形成原因,探讨了航向、风向、流向对航行安全的影响,建立了漓江旅游客船防抗雷雨大风的稳性衡准式,并提出了客船防抗雷雨大风的注意事项。     

东山湾水域夜间通航风险控制与环境改善研究

本文通过对古雷港区东山湾水域夜间航行各项致险因素的研究,提出了规范船舶交通流方面、完善助航标志配布方面、夜间灯光环境方面、港池通航条件方面等各项通航条件的优化措施,并以此为依据提出有序开展夜航和全面开通船舶夜航的建议:对夜间船舶通航风险采取分级分类管控,对夜间重载进出港船舶应采取比空载船舶更加严格的管理和要求,同时,建议东山湾水域夜间污染防治能力和人员救助能力应能够适应全面放开夜航后的需要。     

Green approaches at sea – The benefits of adjusting speed instead of anchoring

In this paper, the concept ‘green approaches’ already used in aviation is applied to cargo transportation at sea. Instead of anchoring outside a port waiting for berth, ships can adjust their speed to arrive just in time for berthing. With improved incentives for reducing speed and shared information about berthing times, green approaches instead of anchoring can be a way to reduce fuel consumption and emissions without increasing the transit times of goods. The present study estimates the benefits to society as a whole for the EU ports in the Baltic Sea with Automatic Identification System data applying a new method using data collected in real time. Data consists of all anchored ships awaiting berth on 40 different occasions in 2015 and are subsequently extrapolated to a year. Fuel consumption by the individual ships, emissions and values are calculated from the detailed data with established models and estimates of unit values. The potential benefits are estimated at 27 million euros per year in the scenario where the near 15,000 anchorings by ships annually awaiting berth may instead start a green approach 12 h prior to arrival and may reduce speed by 25%, using the middle unit values for fuel and emissions. The methodology used in the paper can be applied to estimate the benefits of green approaches in other areas with anchored vessels.     

Benefit of speed reduction for ships in different weather conditions

Currently, the shipping industry is facing a great challenge of reducing emissions. Reducing ship speeds will reduce the emissions in the immediate future with no additional infrastructure. However, a detailed investigation is required to verify the claim that a 10% speed reduction would lead to 19% fuel savings (Faber et al., 2012).This paper investigates fuel savings due to speed reduction using detailed modeling of ship performance. Three container ships, two bulk carriers, and one tanker, representative of the shipping fleet, have been designed. Voyages have been simulated by modeling calm water resistance, wave resistance, propulsion efficiency, and engine limits. Six ships have been simulated in various weather conditions at different speeds. Potential fuel savings have been estimated for a range of speed reductions in realistic weather.It is concluded that the common assumption of cubic speed-power relation can cause a significant error in the estimation of bunker consumption. Simulations in different seasons have revealed that fuel savings due to speed reduction are highly weather dependent. Therefore, a simple way to include the effect of weather in shipping transport models has been proposed.Speed reduction can lead to an increase in the number of ships to fulfill the transport demand. Therefore, the emission reduction potential of speed reduction strategy, after accounting for the additional ships, has been studied. Surprisingly, when the speed is reduced by 30%, fuel savings vary from 2% to 45% depending on ship type, size and weather conditions. Fuel savings further reduce when the auxiliary engines are considered.     

Efficient planning of berth allocation for container terminals in Asia

Berth allocation is essential for efficient terminal utilization in container ports, especially those in Asia. This paper is concerned with a berth allocation problem(BAP) that minimizes the sum of port staying times of ships and that minimizes dissatisfaction of the ships in terms of the berthing order. In general there exist tradeoffs between these objectives. An algorithm is presented to identify noninferior solutions to the BAP. The algorithm is demonstrated with some sample problems and the results indicate the importance of the problem in efficient terminal utilization.     

Particulate matter in marine diesel engines exhausts: Emissions and control strategies

Marine diesel engines emit particles that have a complex nature, being composed by carbonaceous particles, with size spanning from few nanometres to less than one micron, and inorganic particles of micron size mainly made by ashes and sulphates.On a global scale, international shipping is responsible for few percentages of the particulate matter emissions, which also affect climate, but the regional distribution of naval traffic suggests the insurgence of significant exposure risk for population living along the coastal areas, due to chronic exposure effects. Specific strategies should be implemented to reduce the emissions of all the components of particulate matter. This paper aims to present a survey on the current and innovative strategies to remove particles from marine diesel engine exhausts, along with a critical review of the most recent findings on ships emitted particles. Evidences on physical–chemical properties, toxicology and emission factors of the particles were reported. This survey indicates that several strategies can provide a significant reduction of particulate matter emissions from ships and integration between innovative after-treatment systems, ships design and operation procedures can potentially lead to overall reduction of more than 99% even with parallel fuel savings.     

冰粒射流表面清洗的试验研究

冰粒的制备和射流系统的建立是冰粒射流的现;考虑冰粒易融化,冰粒的加入方式采用后混合式且利用压缩空气引射冰粒从而形成冰粒射流系统.用所建立的冰粒射流系统进行了脱漆试验研究,分别考察了工作压力、冰粒尺寸、冰粒温度、冰粒流量及横移速度和喷射靶距等参数对表面清洗性能的影响.结果表明:工作压力和冰粒温度影响较大,冰粒尺寸、冰粒流量及喷射靶距各存在最佳值.