Determinants of crew injuries in vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of non-fatal crew injuries, fatal crew injuries and missing crew in freight ship, tanker and tugboat vessel accidents based upon individual accidents investigated by the US Coast Guard for the 1991–2001 period. Poisson and negative binomial regression estimates suggest that: (1) freight ship and tanker non-fatal injuries are higher when the vessel is moored or docked and during high winds and cold temperatures; (2) tugboat non-fatal injuries are higher during poor visibility; (3) freight ship fatal injuries increase with vessel age and tanker and tugboat fatal injuries are higher for fire and capsize accidents, respectively; and (4) freight ship missing crew increase with vessel age and tugboat missing crew are higher for fire and lake accidents.     

The safety of ferries: an accident injury perspective

This study investigates determinants of fatal and non-fatal injuries in ferry vessel accidents. Poisson regression estimates indicate that fatal and non-fatal injuries are 3.35 and 4.46% higher for fire/explosion than for material/equipment failure or grounding accidents, and 3.13 and 3.38% higher for multi-vessel than for single-vessel accidents. Non-fatal injuries are higher when the weather is foggy but less at night and the older the ferry. Estimated marginal effects indicate that every 100 fire/explosion accidents result in 6.1 fatal injuries, while each fire/explosion accident results in approximately one non-fatal injury.     

The safety of ferries: an accident injury perspective

This study investigates determinants of fatal and non-fatal injuries in ferry vessel accidents. Poisson regression estimates indicate that fatal and non-fatal injuries are 3.35 and 4.46% higher for fire/explosion than for material/equipment failure or grounding accidents, and 3.13 and 3.38% higher for multi-vessel than for single-vessel accidents. Non-fatal injuries are higher when the weather is foggy but less at night and the older the ferry. Estimated marginal effects indicate that every 100 fire/explosion accidents result in 6.1 fatal injuries, while each fire/explosion accident results in approximately one non-fatal injury.     

Determinants of the damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the property damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents. Detailed data of individual ferry vessel accidents for the 11-year timeperiod 1991–2001 that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard are used to estimate ferry-vessel accident property damage cost and injury severity equations. Tobit regression is used to estimate the former equation and the ordered probit model is used to estimate the latter. Property damage costs include damage costs to the vessel itself, its cargo and contents, and other-property damage (e.g., damage to pier structures and waterfront facilities). Injury severity for a ferry vessel accident is measured as an ordinal variable — no injuries, non-fatal injuries and fatal injuries. Damage cost and injury severity of individual ferry vessel accidents are expressed as functions of the type of vessel accident, vessel characteristics, vessel operation phase, weather/visibility conditions, type of waterway, type of vessel propulsion, type of vessel hull construction and cause of vessel accident. The property damage estimation results suggest that allision, collision and fire ferry vessel accidents incur more vessel property damage cost per vessel gross ton than other types of accidents. The injury severity estimation results suggest that injury severity is greater when the ferry vessel accident is caused by human error as opposed to vessel and environmental factors.     

进口原油运输船型经济性分析

石油是世界海上运量最大的货种之一，约占海上总运输量的三分之一。加入WTO后，中国石油海上运输量，特别是进口原油运输量将大幅度地增加。针对这一现实情况，本文对世界原油运输船队的技术经济作了概括性分析，对原油进口航线作了介绍。建立了单船运输经济性测算模型。基于实船经济指标测算结果，以必要运费率为主，通过比较选出了优良船型。并定量测算出不同类型船舶在同一航线上营运的必要运费率及其差异。研究结果指出，随着进口原油量的大幅度增加，中国应大力发展VLCC和Suezmax船队，重点建设大型深水油轮码头。     

Determinants of the severity of passenger vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants and the damage cost of passenger vessel accidents that were investigated by the US Coast Guard for the years 1991-2001. Negative binomial and Poisson regression estimates suggest that: (1) passenger-freight combination vessel accidents incur greater injuries than other types of passenger vessels, (2) deaths are greater when precipitation weather and poor visibility exist and (3) missing occupants are greater for capsize accidents and larger the vessel. The damage cost per vessel gross ton is less for ocean cruise and steel-hulled vessels. The major conclusion of the study is that human (as opposed to environmental and vessel) causes of passenger vessel accidents result in increases in the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants.     

On the nature and sorces of controversy in the economic analysis of the liner shipping industry†

The simulations performed show that demand for quality tankers has to increase by 30% for a two-tier tanker market to emerge. The two-tier freight structure will only last for 3–5 years due to contracting induced by higher freight rates. This means that OPA does not by itself result in higher freight rates for tankers that comply with the requirements. If Western Europe also closes their trades to substandard tankers, a two-tier market emerges and quality tankers obtain a premium. The paper presents a simulation model for international tanker markets. The non-linear complementary equilibrium model solves for a sequence of static equilibria in segmented tanker freight markets, shipbuilding and scrapping markets. Freight markets are segmented according to quality requirements for tankers. The model specifies three tanker classes and one—quality tankers—can operate both market segments.     

Is there potential for a two-tier tanker market?

The simulations performed show that demand for quality tankers has to increase by 30% for a two-tier tanker market to emerge. The two-tier freight structure will only last for 3-5 years due to contracting induced by higher freight rates. This means that OPA does not by itself result in higher freight rates for tankers that comply with the requirements. If Western Europe also closes their trades to substandard tankers, a two-tier market emerges and quality tankers obtain a premium. The paper presents a simulation model for international tanker markets. The non-linear complementary equilibrium model solves for a sequence of static equilibria in segmented tanker freight markets, shipbuilding and scrapping markets. Freight markets are segmented according to quality requirements for tankers. The model specifies three tanker classes and one quality tankers can operate both market segments.     

Introduction to an innovative crew composition approach based on safety/operational and financial requirements

This paper proposes a tool to estimate crew composition based on safety/operational and financial requirements. As there is a tendency of ship owners to implement improved technologies on board their vessels, there is no systematic way to predict their potential effect on crew size and composition (typically determined by flag state authorities on a case-to-case basis) nor on the type and complexity of on board duties new technologies might dictate. The main aim of this paper is to develop a tool to assist in determining crew composition, by taking into account both administration’s and the ship owner’s point of view. Based on data collected from ship owners, a data mining technique is implemented in order to form a generalized framework that estimates crew composition as a function of ship type, size, and degree of automation. The agreement of model predictions with records from specific (vessel) cases is very good in terms of safety (for operations such as watchkeeping, mooring/unmooring, loading/unloading). The specific intended use of this tool is to help a ship owner decide whether it is cost-beneficial to retrofit a conventional vessel with advanced technologies that would potentially entail a reduced crew (probably dealing with different and more complex on board duties). Its main benefits are that it can be used to estimate crew composition before any vessel construction or upgrade has actually taken place and that it allows crew composition to be easily adapted to the technological evolution of ship systems even at their current rapid pace.     

Casualty analysis of large tankers

This article presents detailed results of a comprehensive analysis of recorded accidents of large oil tankers (deadweight greater than 80 000 tonnes) occurring between 1978 and 2003. The analysis encompasses a thorough review of available raw accident data and their postprocessing in a way to produce appropriate statistics useful for the implementation of risk-based assessment methodologies. The processing of the captured data led to the identification of significant qualitative historical trends of tanker accidents and of quantitative characteristics of large tanker accidents, such as overall accident rates per ship-year. Data were also analyzed for all major accident categories separately, taking into account tanker ship size/type, the degree of accident severity, and the oil spill tonne rates per ship-year; this led to the identification of heavily polluted worldwide geographical areas as a result of large tanker accidents.     

小型液货船惰性气体系统最新动向

防止油船和化学品船火灾及爆炸事故一直是IMO关注的问题,同时也是油轮公司和化学品船公司日常安全管理的重点之一。液货船(包括油船、化学品船和液化气体船)在海上航行或在货物操作期间,可能发生各种不可预测的因素,存在着很多巨大的火灾或爆炸危险性。为确保安全,避免航行及货物操作期间各种不可预测因素的影响,只有在液货船,如油船上安装惰性气体系统,并对船员作全面培训,才能减少甚至防止事故的发生。     

船舶照明设计中的若干注意问题

船舶照明系统是船舶的重要组成部分,其影响着船舶的正常运行和船员的日常生活与工作。文中对船舶建造过程中遇到的照明问题进行了归纳和总结,特别是对规范、规章中容易忽视的细节进行了剖析,以避免船舶建造过程中的重复施工,防止因照明设计失误而导致船舶运营中发生事故。     

苏伊士油船入级ABS综合桥楼的设备配置

针对综合桥楼涉及船舶设备配置较多和设计人员对此不易掌握的问题,结合苏伊士型油船入级ABS综合桥楼的实例,阐述一人桥楼的基础,对综合桥楼的独特性进行分析,总结一套完整设备配置方案。该配置方案有实船项目背景,满足规范和船员实际操作需求,也为类似船舶桥楼设计和设备订货提供参考。     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

原油运输市场分析

分别概述了世界与中国的石油资源储量分布、可持续开采年数、不同地区的生产量与消耗量、以及产销平衡状况,由此派生的全球不同地区原油、成品油的进出口量、海运量与主要的海运航线,我国石油进口的主要来源和途径;分析了油轮的船型和船龄的分布,进而预测了世界上几种主要原油轮运力的供应、需求、船价与运价的发展趋势。这些分析和预测可以作为制定油轮发展的技术政策、战略、规划等宏观决策时的参考。     

Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates

Given the secular and sharp rise in oil prices over the past decade, this study analyses the impact that the spike in oil prices has on tanker rates. We investigate a dynamic model explaining spot tanker rates. The magnitude of the impact of oil prices on the shipping industry, in terms of the level and volatility of spot (voyage) under bull and bear market conditions. The West African–US Gulf Tanker Rates, West Texas Intermediate spot and 3-month futures contract, and US Weekly Petroleum Inventories are analysed using cointegration and Granger causality analysis, from 1997 through 2007, in order to examine the lead–lag relationship between oil prices and tanker freight rates. Our findings show a relationship between spot and future crude oil prices, crude oil inventories and tanker rates. The significant increase of freight rates, and the simultaneous increase in oil prices, during the recent years, provides an intriguing economic environment to identify relationships between shipping market rates and oil prices. These relationships have significant implications for the markets. At the practical level, the better understanding of the relationship between freight rates and crude oil prices can improve operational management and budget planning decisions.     

The overall motion induced interruptions as operability criterion for fishing vessels

A new index, namely the overall motion induced interruptions (OMII), is proposed as a seakeeping criterion for fishing vessels, to compare ships having different hull forms and dimensions by means of an only parameter, in a human centred approach, mainly related to the onboard risk level. Therefore, the first aim of the paper is to investigate the factors affecting fishing vessels’ seakeeping performances to improve them to reduce the high number of injuries occurring during fishing operations, mainly related to both risk perception and harsh weather conditions. Despite the classical approach, where motion induced interruption is determined for a certain sea state with regard to several location points, the new index accounts for all crew members’ positions on the working deck, all heading angles the vessel may experience during fishing operations, based on relevant operating scenario, and all sea states the ship may encounter in the fishing area. The influence of position, heading angles and sea states on the attained risk level is fully investigated, analysing seakeeping performances of four fishing vessels with different hull forms and dimensions. Finally, a new operability criterion is proposed, based on OMII, to investigate the influence of ship size and operating scenario on the risk of injuries during fishing operations. Main factors affecting fishing vessels’ seakeeping performances are fully discussed, paying attention to relevant correlation with ship roll natural period.     

Benzene concentrations on board chemical tankers

Maritime transport of benzene is regulated by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Two important guidelines for a ship’s crew in this matter are IMO circulars 1095 and 1220. The first one describes the minimum safety standards for ships carrying liquids in bulk containing benzene while circular 1220 deals with structural guidelines for new ships carrying liquids in bulk containing benzene, but also technical developments could help in improving safety and health protection on board chemical tankers carrying benzene in bulk. The aim of the present paper is to determine the benzene concentration in the working and living environment on board a modern chemical tanker carrying benzene in bulk, where all safety, technical and operational procedures described by IMO in the above-mentioned circulars are followed. During specific cargo operations, we measured the benzene concentrations on different locations on board by means of Radiello® passive diffusive samplers. Despite all measures taken, we found an important difference in benzene concentration between operations with a benzene cargo compared to operations without benzene on board, as well as inside and outside the accommodation. Moreover, even during discharge operations, where the emission is theoretically zero, we found an important increase in the benzene concentration. In addition, we found less favourable results for the engine room.     

80000吨化学品船功能定位分析及线型方案设计

分析化学品船发展趋势;梳理IBC Code对化学品船船型和舱型要求,统计IBC Code第17章中722种化学品的船型和舱型要求;考虑航线、港口和货量因素,提出五种船型方案,并分析其优缺点,奠定船型开发基础,为其他吨位化学品船开发提供参考;基于载重量指标和EEDI指标,设计三种线型方案,并分析其适用范围,供目标船选用。     

Determinants of the property damage costs of bulk barge accidents

This study investigates determinants of the vessel, cargo, and other-property damage costs of bulk barge accidents in US inland waterways. Tobit estimation of a three-equation recursive model suggests that, in bulk barge accidents: (1) vessel damage cost is greater for collision, fire/explosion, and material/equipment failure accidents than for groundings; (2) cargo damage cost is greater at night and when the weather is foggy and increases with barge age; and (3) otherproperty damage cost is greater for multi-vessel accidents, but decreases with barge size. A dollar of vessel damage cost increases other-property damage cost by $1.38, while a dollar of cargo damage cost increases this cost by $6.90. An important result for formulating bulk barge accident cost-reduction policies is that a given determinant might have a negative effect on one type of damage cost but a positive effect on another.