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The convergence of information and communication technologies (ICT) with automotive technologies has already resulted in automation features in road vehicles and this trend is expected to continue in the future owing to consumer demand, dropping costs of components, and improved reliability. While the automation features that have taken place so far are mainly in the form of information and driver warning technologies (classified as level I pre-2010), future developments in the medium term (level II 2010–2025) are expected to exhibit connected cognitive vehicle features and encompass increasing degree of automation in the form of advanced driver assistance systems. Although autonomous vehicles have been developed for research purposes and are being tested in controlled driving missions, the autonomous driving case is only a long term (level III 2025 +) scenario. This paper contributes knowledge on technological forecasts regarding automation, policy challenges for each level of technology development and application context, and the essential instrument of cost-effectiveness for policy analysis which enables policy decisions on the automation systems to be assessed in a consistent and balanced manner. The cost of a system per vehicle is viewed against its effectiveness in meeting policy objectives of improving safety, efficiency, mobility, convenience and reducing environmental effects. Example applications are provided that illustrate the contribution of the methodology in providing information for supporting policy decisions. Given the uncertainties in system costs as well as effectiveness, the tool for assessing policies for future generation features probabilistic and utility-theoretic analysis capability. The policy issues defined and the assessment framework enable the resolution of policy challenges while allowing worthy innovative automation in driving to enhance future road transportation. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTWhile automated vehicle (AV) development continues to progress rapidly, how the public will accept and adopt automated vehicles remains an open question. Using extensive survey data, we apply cluster analysis to better understand consumer perceptions toward potential benefits and concerns related to AVs with regard to factors influencing their AV adoption likelihood. Four market segments are identified – ‘benefits-dominated,’ ‘concerns-dominated,’ ‘uncertain,’ and ‘well-informed.’ A random parameters multinomial logit model is then estimated to identify factors influencing the probability of respondents belonging to one of these four market segments. Among other influences (such as socio-economic and current travel characteristics), it is found that ‘Millennials’ have a higher probability of belonging to the well-informed market segment, ‘Gen-Xers’ with a lower probability to the uncertain market segment, and ‘Baby Boomers’ with a higher probability to the concerns-dominated market (relative to the ‘Great Generation’). We also study the individuals’ expressed likelihood of AV adoption using separate random parameters ordered probit estimations for each of the four market segments. The substantial and statistically significant differences across each AV consumer market segment underscore the potentially large impact that different consumer demographics may have on AV adoption and the need for targeted marketing to achieve better market-penetration outcomes. 相似文献
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Fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to considerably change urban mobility in the future. This study simulates potential AV operating scenarios in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, and assesses transportation system performance on a regional level. For each scenario, the base capacities of certain types of road links are modified to simulate the theoretical increase in throughput enabled by AV driving behavior. Another scenario examines driverless parking operations in downtown Toronto. Simulation results indicate that the increased attractiveness of freeways relative to other routes leads to slightly increased average travel distance as vehicles divert to access higher capacity road links. Average travel time is found to decrease by up to one-fifth at the 90% AV market penetration level. Concurrently, localized increases in congestion suggest that proactive transportation planning will be needed to mitigate negative consequences of AV adoption, especially in relation to induced demand for personal automobile travel. 相似文献
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为满足对轨道交通信号系统高效率、高安全性的发展需求,引入自律分散的技术,介绍自律分散系统的构成、特点、内部结构及其工作机制。以现行移动闭塞条件下列车控制系统为基础,提出基于自律分散的城市轨道交通信号系统的数据域结构设计、数据单元格的设计以及行车安全子系统的设计,为城市轨道交通信号系统的设计提供一种新的思路和方法。 相似文献
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为促进报废汽车环保回收,提高资源循环利用率,文章基于对我国汽车市场和报废汽车回收拆解行业的现状分析,从政策措施层面提出提高报废汽车回收行业水平的方案设想.认为首先应选择全国废旧汽车资源集中的3个地区建立报废汽车破碎示范中心,其次要支持现有拆解企业升级改造,最后要完善相关管理制度. 相似文献
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2001年我国启动了"863"计划电动汽车重大专项,我国新能源汽车产业开局良好。自2004年起,在国家的长远规划和能源政策中,新能源汽车产业和技术的发展被多次强调。2009年是我国新能源汽车产业破局之年,诸多鼓励政策相继出台。2010年我国新能源汽车扶持新政策或将出台。最后提出以财税金融激励手段推进我国新能源汽车发展。 相似文献