Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

Shipping inspections,detentions, and incidents: an empirical analysis of risk dimensions

ABSTRACT

Inspections play a key role in keeping vessels safe. Inspection authorities employ different policies to decide which vessels to inspect, including type of vessel, age, and flag. Attention for vessel history is usually restricted only to past detentions. This paper demonstrates that the correlation between the probabilities of detention and (very serious and serious) incidents is very low and that proactive prevention of future incidents is improved by accounting for both risk dimensions, that is, by combining past incident and detention information for targeting high-risk vessels for inspection. Five combined methods are presented to classify vessels based on these two risk dimensions, each of which involves extensive sets of factors. These combined classification methods have predictive power for future incidents. Depending on the applied inspection rate, incorporation of incident risk improves inspection hit rates for vessels with future incidents by 30–50% compared to using only detention information. It is recommended to focus on vessels where both risks are relatively high. A practical example shows how the methods can be applied for inspection selection and for prioritizing inspection areas defined in terms of eight risk domains that include collisions, groundings, engine and hull failures, loss of life, fire, and pollution.     

Evaluation of safety and environmental risk at individual ship and company level

Whereas current risk profiling methods used in the maritime sector largely rely on detention risk, we extend them by considering various risk dimensions and by evaluating a wide range of risk factors including pollution and damage costs. Risk factors include ship particulars such as vessel type and the nature of companies and owners, as well as historical information on past accidents, inspections, and changes of particulars. We present methods to summarize and visualize the various risk dimensions paying particular attention to the identification of potentially risky companies. The results are obtained by combining unique data sets with information on ship arrivals, inspections, and accidents covering 2006-2010.     

Corporatisation and Performance: A Literature Review and an Analysis of the Performance Effects of the Corporatisation of Port of Rotterdam Authority

Abstract

The ongoing process of port reform has led to an increasing number of publicly owned but corporatised port authorities (PAs). The performance effects of corporatisation have been analysed, for example, for the airports industry, often showing positive effects. This paper reviews the literature on port reform and the relationship between port governance structures and performance. It also presents a first case study on the effects of corporatisation of PAs, namely for the Port of Rotterdam Authority, a publicly owned but corporatised port development company. In 2004, this organisation was transformed from a municipal department to an independently operating company. The performance indicators to evaluate the effect of this corporatisation include market share, turnover, operating costs, profits, and investments. These indicators are evaluated for two periods, one prior to the corporatisation (1997–2003) and the other afterwards (2005–11). The comparison of these two periods shows that corporatisation has led to significant improvements of all performance indicators. The findings derived from this case study are relevant for the ongoing discussion on port governance models.     

Estimation of springing response for 550 000 DWT ore carrier

The desire to benefit from economy of scale is one of the major driving forces behind the continuous growth in ship sizes. However, models of new large ships need to be thoroughly investigated to determine the carrier’s response in waves. In this work, experimental and numerical assessments of the motion and load response of a 550,000 DWT ore carrier are performed using prototype ships with softer stiffness, and towing tank tests are conducted using a segmented model with two schemes of softer stiffness. Numerical analyses are performed employing both rigid body and linear hydroelasticity theories using an in-house program and a comparison is then made between experimental and numerical results to establish the influence of stiffness on the ore carrier’s springing response. Results show that softer stiffness models can be used when studying the springing response of ships in waves.     

澳大利亚RAILSCAN非接触式轨道测量系统

介绍了RAILSCAN非接触式轨道测量系统的测量原理、作业方法与精度指标.