Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

An empirical study on aggregation of alternatives and its influence on prediction in car type choice models

Transportation - Assessing and predicting car type choices are important for policy analysis. Car type choice models are often based on aggregate alternatives. This is due to the fact that analysts...     

Role of Bus‐Based Park and Ride in the UK: A Temporal and Evaluative Review

Abstract

The number of bus‐based Park and Ride (P&R) schemes in the UK has grown substantially over the past 40 years as a result of its encouragement by the Government as a tool to deal with increasing traffic congestion and traffic‐related pollution. The aim of this article is to analyse the degree to which P&R is effective in the contemporary policy context. The authors identify phases of development of P&R since its emergence as a local solution to transport capacity constraints in historic towns. Policy goals are identified against which a review of literature is used to highlight its effectiveness. It is concluded that P&R may increase the distance travelled by its users due to low load factors on dedicated buses, public transport abstraction and trip generation, although it is highlighted that there are areas in which further research is required to clarify its impacts.     

基于公共汽车的停车换乘在英国的作用——历史回顾与评述

过去40年里,英国政府鼓励基于公共汽车的停车换乘(P&R),并将其作为解决交通拥堵和交通污染问题的有效措施,使得此类计划的数量持续增长.为分析当前政策背景下P&R发挥的作用,从P&R作为历史名城解决交通容量不足的方法出现开始,将其发展分为了几个阶段.得出的结论是,政策目标与文献回顾中强调的P&R作用相悖;由于P&R专用...     

Regulating transport’s environmental impacts in a deregulating world

In recent years, a growing awareness of the environmental impacts of transport has played a major part in the shift towards policies to manage the demand for travel. As a result, a substantial increase in the role of public transport has been identified as necessary in any strategy towards more environmentally sustainable transport patterns. At the same time there has been a quite separate process of deregulation and the withdrawal of the state from the transport market. These two trends appear to represent potentially contradictory processes. This article draws upon two major studies that explore the relationship between increasing needs for environmental regulation and the privatisation of bus and rail services. It is shown that, as currently organised in Britain, the development of bus and rail services are inadequately linked to strategic environmental policymaking and, rather than being part of the solution to transport’s environmental impacts, there is a real danger that these ‘green’ methods of transport could slide into simply being part of the problem itself. It is concluded that privatisation and deregulation does not mean the end of the need for policy mechanisms, but they do mean that policy has to be implemented in a very different way.     

Authentic assessment in seafarer education: using literature review to investigate its validity and reliability through rubrics

With the Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping Convention 1995 (STCW’95) moving seafarer training towards outcome-based education (OBE), emphasis has shifted to assessment practices that will allow seafarer students to demonstrate their ability to perform workplace tasks at standards described in the STCW Code. This paper argues that authentic assessment comprising of performance-based tasks applied in real-world and meaningful contexts can provide a holistic approach to competence assessment for seafarers. But, authentic assessment can capture essential aspects of workplace tasks and result in consistency of student performance in different contexts only if they are valid and reliable. Rubrics as assessment tools are known to increase validity and reliability of assessments; however, it can do so only if different aspects of its own validity and reliability have been addressed. A literature review undertaken for this paper has uncovered an absence of academic investigation and empirical study on the different aspects of validity and reliability of authentic assessment through assessment rubrics. Moreover, there exists an even greater absence of global research on authentic assessment in the area of seafarer training. Through an investigation of authentic assessment, this research has uncovered the importance of using valid and reliable rubrics in order to improve not only the assessment process but also the tools and methods used to support the valid, reliable, and authentic assessment of outcomes achieved in the learning process. Future research aims to offer insights into improving the validity and reliability of rubrics and to empirically investigate how they can be used in authentic assessment within the confines of the STCW Code, in particular, to improve seafarer training practices, student engagement, resulting learning outcomes, and employer and regulator satisfaction with the attainment of the standards stipulated in the STCW Code to produce an evidence of competence.     

Quantifying the transport-related impacts of parental school choice in England

School travel is becoming increasingly car-based and this is leading to many environmental and health implications for children all over the world. One of several reasons for this is that journey to school distances have increased over time. This is a trend that has been reinforced in some countries by the adoption of so-called ‘school choice’ policies, whereby parents can apply on behalf of their child(ren) to attend any school, and not only the school they live closest to. This paper examines the traffic and environmental impacts of the school choice policy in England. It achieves this by analysing School Census data from 2009 from the Department for Education. Multinomial logit modelling and mixed multinomial logit modelling are used to illustrate the current travel behaviour of English children in their journey to school and examine how there can be a significant reduction in vehicle miles travelled, CO₂ emissions and fuel consumption if the ‘school choice’ policy is removed. The model shows that when school choice was replaced by a policy where each child only travelled to their ‘nearest school’ several changes occurred in English school travel. Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) by motorised transport fell by 1 % for car travel and 10 % for bus travel per day. The reduction in vehicle miles travelled could lead to less congestion on the roads during the morning rush hour and less cars driving near school gates. Mode choice changed in the modelled scenario. Car use fell from 32 to 22 %. Bus use fell from 12 to 7 %, whilst NMT saw a rise of 17 %. With more children travelling to school by walking or cycling the current epidemic of childhood obesity could also be reduced through active travel.     

Multilevel modelling of Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) trips in Greater Manchester based on area-wide socio-economic data

Providing public transport in areas of low demand has long proved to be a challenge to policy makers and practitioners. With the developing economic, social and environmental trends, there is pressure for alternative solutions to the policy of subsidising conventional bus services. One potential solution is to adopt more flexible routes and/or timetables to better match the required demand. Therefore such ‘on demand’ or ‘Demand Responsive Transport’ (DRT) services (known as paratransit in the US) have been adopted in a number of locations. This paper seeks to explore the effects of area-wide factors on the demand of DRT by reporting the results of a statistical analysis of DRT service provision in the metropolitan region of Greater Manchester, the public transport authority of which offers one of the largest and most diverse range of DRT schemes in the UK. Specifically, this paper employs a multilevel modelling approach to investigate the impact of both DRT supply-oriented factors at the service area level and socio-economic factors at the lower super output area (LSOA) level on the average number of trips made by DRT per year. This hierarchical or ‘nested’ structure was adopted because typically the LSOAs within the same Service Area may share similar characteristics. It is found that the demand for DRT services was higher in areas with low car ownership, low population density, high proportion of white people, and high levels of social deprivation, measured in terms of income, employment, education, housing and services, health and disability, and living environment.     

Railway station choice modelling: a review of methods and evidence

Since the first railway station choice studies of the 1970s, a substantial body of research on the topic has been completed, primarily in North America, the U.K. and the Netherlands. With many countries seeing sustained growth in rail passenger numbers, which is forecast to continue, station choice models have an important role to play in assessing proposals for new stations or service changes. This paper reviews the modelling approaches adopted, the factors found to influence station choice and the application of models to real-world demand forecasting scenarios. A consensus has formed around using the closed-form multinomial logit and nested logit models, with limited use of more advanced simulation-based models, and the direction effects of a range of factors have been consistently reported. However, there are questions over the validity of applying non-spatial discrete choice models to a context where spatial correlation will be present, in particular with regard to the models’ ability to adequately represent the abstraction behaviours resulting from competition between stations. Furthermore, there has been limited progress towards developing a methodology to integrate a station choice element into the aggregate models typically used to forecast passenger demand for new stations.     

Improving the validity and reliability of authentic assessment in seafarer education and training: a conceptual and practical framework to enhance resulting assessment outcomes

Past literature on authentic assessment suggests that it provides a far more reliable and valid indicator of outcomes such as higher student engagement, ability to transfer skills to different contexts, multiple evidence of competence, and student performance. This has appeal in seafarer education and training where both students and employers increasingly perceive traditional assessment methods as failing to consistently generate these outcomes. However, this paper argues that improving different aspects of assessment validity and reliability is essentially required to enhance the outcomes identified above. The paper builds on and extends previous work to investigate and develop a conceptual and practical framework that promotes a holistic approach to authentic assessment that provides greater assurances of validity and reliability throughout all stages of assessment within seafarer programs. It also lays the path to future research directions by establishing the agenda to test the practicality of the framework in the authentic assessment of seafarer students and also investigate the impact of students’ perception of increasing authenticity on performance scores in assessment tasks.