新冠肺炎交通防控政策对长沙市人口流动的影响

为探究新冠肺炎疫情下交通防控政策对长沙市人口流动的影响，本文根据长沙市在新冠 肺炎疫情期间颁布的交通防控政策和疫情实时防控情况划分防控阶段，基于百度迁徙大数据，利 用双重差分模型，识别长沙市不同阶段的交通防控政策以及量化防控效果，分析交通防控政策对 长沙市人口流动的影响。结果显示，长沙市在交通管制阶段，平均人口迁出强度、平均人口迁入 强度及城市内部出行强度分别下降了83.68%、69.24%及59.74%，有效地控制了人口流动，降低了 疫情扩散危险。在交通恢复阶段，长沙市人口流动强度逐渐反弹，城市内部出行强度基本恢复到 2019年同期水平。本文研究结果显示了交通管制对疫情扩散限制的有效性，为常态化疫情防控 下精准防控政策和复工复产政策制定提供参考。     

Impact of regional population density on walking behavior

Land use can influence walking (measured by the number of steps) and so the health of people. This paper presents the result of empirical research on the impact of regional population densities (inhabitants per inhabitable area) on the number of steps (all steps, both outdoors and indoors). With data collected from almost 11,000 respondents in 148 Japanese regions, we estimate polynomial regression models, the total number of steps being the dependent variable and densities being the main independent variable. Regional population density significantly affects the number of steps after controlling for individual and household attributes. The estimated population density that maximizes the number of steps is around 11,000?persons/km². Increasing densities, up to levels of around 11,000?inhabitants/km², could increase walking and consequently the health of inhabitants. The population density elasticity of the number of steps is 0.046–0.049 in a simple log linear regression model without a peak.     

内蒙古达斡尔族群体9个X-STR位点的遗传多态性及法医学应用价值评估

目的研究内蒙古达斡尔族群体9个X-STR位点(DXS6789、DXS101、DXS8378、DXS7132、DXS7133、DXS7423、DXS6804、DXS6799、HPRTB)的多态性分布及法医学应用价值。方法抽取内蒙古达斡尔族87名健康无关个体静脉血,提取DNA,经PCR扩增、变性聚丙烯酰胺凝胶电泳及银染显色技术进行等位基因分型;采用SPSS13.0软件计算各位点基因型频率和等位基因频率,并检验等位基因分布差异有无统计学意义;Genepop软件进行Hardy-Weinberg平衡检验;Fstat软件计算基因多态性、固定指数并检验固定指数偏离平衡的程度;Powerstats软件计算各种法医学应用指标。结果获得内蒙古达斡尔族群体9个X-STR位点等位基因频率分布的数据;进一步检验获得9个X-STR位点中DXS7133位点的多态性和分化程度较低;DXS7423和DXS7132位点在不同民族中基因分布差异无统计学意义。结论9个X-STR位点中,DXS6789、DXS101、DXS8378、DXS7132、DXS7423、DXS6804、DXS6799、HPRTB 8个位点有较高的遗传多态性和个体识别率,在个体识别和女孩的亲权鉴定中有较高应用价值,对疾病相关研究有实际意义。     

Effect of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism on plasma lipid levels and its relationship with coronary atherosclerotic heart disease

Objective To explore the risk association of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism with coronary heart disease (CHD) in Hart nationality in Northwest of China. Methods With case-control study, ABCA1-V771M polymorphism was detected in 204 unrelated Hart nationality people in Northwest of China, and all the subjects by coronary angiography were grouped into 106 cases and 98 controls. The genotypes and alleles frequency distribution of ABCA1-V771M polymorphisms were analyzed by PCR-RFLP analysis, and the clinical statistics of serum lipids were compared and its effects of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism on the plasma lipid levels and coronary atherosclerotic heart disease were analyzed. Results The genotypic frequencies of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism matched well under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (P>0.05), V and M allelic frequencies were 33.3% and 66.7%. In comparison with VV VM genotype carriers, MM genotypes carriers had much lower plasma levels of HDL-C (P<0. 001) and much higher plasma levels of TG (P<0. 05). M allelic frequency in CHD group was significantly higher than V allelic frequency (P<0. 05). M allele was related with more severity of atherosclerosis in the coronary artery than V allele (P<0.05). However, there was no obvious difference in the incidence of AMI among carriers with three genotypes of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism (P>0.05). Conclusion ABCA1-V771M polymorphism was not only associated with the plasma levels of HDL-C and TG, but also related to the susceptibility and severity of coronary atheroselerotic heart disease. Moreover, M771 allele appeared to be atherogenie among Han population in Northwest of China.     

威海市公路网发展规模预测及适应性评价

通过对威海市现有公路网总体布局、公路等级结构分析，在充分考虑威海市制造业基地的发展基础上，对社会经济发展水平进行预测，同时分析了公路网规模与国民经济、人口的相互关系，采用国土系数法、人口密度法定量预测未来规划年的威海市公路网合理规模，结合专家意见等定性：方法，给出了满足威海市发展需求的路网规模，并从公路网技术指标，宏观经济和社会效益等方面：鞋行适应性分析评判。     

POLYMORPHISM OF THE vWF LOCUS AND ITS FORENSIC APPLICATION IN COMPACT BONE

Amplifiedfragmentlengthpolymorphisms(Amp--FLPs)havebeenevaluatedasusefulgeneticmarkersinforensiccaseworks{'~'].vWFpolymorphismisoneoftheAmp--FLPsdetectedbythepolymerasechainreaction(PCR).-PopulationdataconcerningvWFhasbeedpreviouslycarriedoutonEuropeanCaucasians[13.ButnodataisavailablefortheChinesepopulation.Inthisreport,wepresentthedataforvWFlocusin112unrelatedChineseHanindividualsanditsapplicabilityincompactboneanddens.MATERIALSANDMETHODS1.PrimersA:5'~ACGTATTCTATTTAT~3…     

影响十堰市汽车保有量的因素分析

汽车保有量与社会经济发展水平有密切的关系,通过建立计量经济学模型寻求汽车保有量和社会经济有关指标的函数关系,可以较为准确地预测十堰市短期内的汽车保有量。根据统计数据回归分析,影响十堰市汽车保有量的主要因素有:社会消费品零售总额、城镇居民可支配收入和社会固定资产投资。     

Forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chains-based approaches

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modeling have further highlighted the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure for guaranteeing the correct characterization of real-world populations and underlying travel demands. In this regard, we propose an integrated approach including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and profiling-based methods to capture the behavioral complexity and the great heterogeneity of agents of the true population through representative micro-samples. The population synthesis method is capable of building the joint distribution of a given population with its corresponding marginal distributions using either full or partial conditional probabilities or both of them simultaneously. In particular, the estimation of socio-demographic or transport-related variables and the characterization of daily activity-travel patterns are included within the framework. The fully probabilistic structure based on Markov Chains characterizing this framework makes it innovative compared to standard activity-based models. Moreover, data stemming from the 2010 Belgian Household Daily Travel Survey (BELDAM) are used to calibrate the modeling framework. We illustrate that this framework effectively captures the behavioral heterogeneity of travelers. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed framework is adequately adapted to meeting the demand for large-scale micro-simulation scenarios of transportation and urban systems.     

本土音乐与城镇老龄群体音乐活动之关系探微——以甘肃省为例

音乐与其所处文化背景构成的共生关系，是一种普遍而又复杂的社会文化现象，而本土音乐与城市特定人群音乐活动之间的关系更以其特殊的文化形态，成为音乐社会学切入社会微观领域观测音乐与社会互动的重要角度。本文以甘肃省为例，探悉本土音乐与城镇老龄群体音乐活动之间的关系，并以此为镜像，观测当前本土音乐的存在现状及其文化变迁，进而为城市音乐文化研究提供一份重要资料。     

广深线石龙地区准高速铁路开通前后铁路环境噪声冲击指数

广深线准高速铁路是我国第一条准高速铁路，其开通前后铁路环境噪声对居民影响程度必将产生变化。通过现场测试，采用铁路环境噪声冲击指数，分析评价准高速铁路对环境噪声的实际影响。结果表明，广深线准高速铁路开通后，石龙镇敏感地段铁路环境噪声冲击指数有所下降，高噪声居民下降率昼间约为２２．６％，夜间约为２３．２％。