一种新的编码事故树分析法在航海碰撞事故中的应用

此文介绍一种新的编码事故树的事故分析方法，并利用它对已经发生过的碰撞事故进行分析，指出了减少人为失误和提高组织管理水平对提高航海中船舶安全系数有很大作用。     

台湾海峡船舶碰撞事故分析与研究

此文根据台湾海峡近10年船舶碰撞事故的统计资料，分析海峡内发生船舶碰撞事故的规律、影响因素及成因等，提出减少台湾海峡碰撞事故的建议与对策。     

浅谈船舶碰撞事故原因及预防措施

碰撞是指船舶与船舶之间或船舶与水上移动式装置之间发生接触造成损害的事故。据统计,海损事故中40%以上是碰撞事故。 1、构成碰撞事故的要素1有实际接触,即事故当事各方的某一部位必须同时占据同一空间。2必须发生在船舶之间或船舶与水上移动式装置之间。3要有损害后果。     

谈海上船舶安全避让

海上船舶碰撞事故给人命、财产及海洋环境造成极大的危害。造成碰撞的原因，据资料统计，绝大多数的碰撞事故究其本质都是人为失误所导致，其中责任心不强，知识欠缺，经验不足，避让操作技术和心理素质差，以及疏忽大意等，无一不是事故的主要原因。为此要主动采取安全措施，防止事故的发生。那么，船舶驾驶人员如何才能确实做到安全避让呢?现结合自身工作经历和依照《国际海上避碰规则》要求，谈点粗浅的见解和体会。     

人为失误与海上事故发生的机理分析

海上事故的发生与航海人员在完成航行任务和处理海上风险过程中的能力有非常密切的关系。保障此过程中的行为能有效地完成成为关键，而航海人员完成任务的能力又直接受到人为失误的影响，也就是说，人为失误的发生直接降低了人的处理能力，使航行任务归于失败。现从行为学的观点对人为失误的发生进行了初步的分析，寻求减少人为失误发生的途径。并从统计学的观点解释了由人为失误引起的海上事故发生的原因。     

船舶机损事故中人为失误的分析

从人机工程学的角度，对船舶机损事故中人为失误进行了全面分析，这为研究船舶机损事故提供了一个新的途径。     

绘制船舶碰撞运动轨迹的数学模型探讨

根据船舶碰撞事故调查及事故调查可获得的环境资料和船舶运动过程资料，对建立适用于绘制船碰撞发生前运动轨迹数学模型作了初步探讨．     

加强驾驶台资源管理 控制人为因素的负面影响

许多统计资料已经证明,绝大多数碰撞事故主要是人为因素造成的。根据国内某航运公司2003年1月至2008年2月所发生船舶事故的统计分析．船舶在航行、靠离泊过程中所发生的事故原因涉及人为因素的达到了86％,其中碰撞事故涉及人的因素达到了95％。由此看来,人的因素与船舶碰撞事故之问有着非常密切的关系。这些人为因素包括人的技术业务素质,爱岗敬业精神,身体状况,人的情景意识,心理素质,人员对各项规章制度的执行情况以及人的判断失误等等。及时发现这些人为因素,果断地采取有效措施来避免人的消极因素的影响,使事故消灭在萌芽状态．已成为船舶安全管理的重中之重。     

试论海上船舶安全避让

海上船舶碰撞事故给人命、财产及海洋环境造成极大的危害。造成碰撞的原因归结起来,一是客观条件的限制;二是人为因素所造成。据统计资料,绝大多数的碰撞事故究其本质都是人为失误所导致。责任心不强,知识欠缺,经验不足,避让操作技术和心理素质差,以及疏忽大意等,无一不是事故的主要原因。     

船舶机损事故中人为失误的实证研究

根据近几年收集的浙江省主要航运公司发生的244起重大机损案例,从损伤部件、故障类型、发生时间、事故原因4个方面进行统计分析,揭示出导致船舶机损事故的主要原因是人为失误,对如何防止船舶机损事故中的人为失误提出建议。     

Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

一起船舶碰岸事故的教训

对于一起由于船员过失而导致的船舶触岸事故,分折导致该事故的原因和在此事故中各当事方的过失,并阐述在引航员操纵船舶时船长、驾驶员和其它当值船员的职责,以预防类似事故的发生。     

人为失误与船舶引航事故的预防

船舶引航事故中的主要原因是人为失误,在分析该原因及其相关的失误链与事件链和不同种类失误的基础上,全面认识人为因素与引航事故的关系,注意调节引航员生理与心理状态和及时识别并破断引航中的失误链与事故链的角度,就预防船舶引航事故的发生进行了论述,并提出了一些设想与建议。     

Safety in Greek coastal shipping: The role and risk of human factor revisited

The comprehensive analysis presented in this paper investigates the links and comparative assets between human factor and other factors that are important determinants of maritime transport risk. In this outline, the identification of factors, such as age and ship size, that can be statistically linked (i.e. statistical significance) to whether an accident in a passenger vessel can be attributed to human factor or other causes is addressed accordingly. This way, the role of human factor in relation to safety of Greek coastal shipping is revealed and the spotlight is able to focus on the various aspects and points that manifest the importance of human element in the maritime industry. The risk assessment of the transportation with Greek passenger ships is being used in order for the safety level of Greek coastal shipping to be adequately estimated. Moreover, the comparison between the values of risk for accidents caused by human factor and those attributed to other causes is an established way to bring to the fore the unbroken relationship between the human factor and marine accidents’ consequences. The paper is concluded with interesting insights and comments drafted through the aforementioned tasks.     

疏浚泥水混合物电导率特性初探

为论证电导率测试法用于测定疏浚泥浆浓度的可行性,探讨疏浚泥浆电导率与泥浆浓度间的关系及影响因素,选取国内较有代表性的淤泥质土、粉土、粉砂以及细砂等疏浚泥样,配置成不同浓度的混合物,测试了配置混合物的电导率以及温度和盐度对混合物电导率的影响.试验结果表明:混合物中水的盐度、泥沙体积浓度、混合物温度等参数与混合物电导率存在明显的相关关系;泥沙粒径级配对混合物电导率也有一定影响.因此,通过电导率测试法用于测定疏浚泥浆浓度是可行的,但须注意对混合物温度和盐度的影响进行补偿或相关处理.     

E·F船机舱事故统计与分析

以控制船舶机舱事故为目的,以E·F船机舱事故为对象,采取对主要事故进行分析及1年事故数据调查统计的方法,分析在机舱安全事故中,严重伤害、轻微伤害和没有伤害之间的比例关系,探讨事故发生频率与伤害严重程度之间的普遍规律,提出降低机舱安全事故的策略。     

Application of fuzzy neural network to the nuclear power plant in process fault diagnosis

The fuzzy logic and neural networks are combined in this paper, setting up the fuzzy neural network (FNN) ; meanwhile, the distinct differences and connections between the fuzzy logic and neural network are compared. Furthermore, the algorithm and structure of the FNN are introduced. In order to diagnose the faults of nuclear power plant, the FNN is applied to the nuclear power plant, and the intelligence fault diagnostic system of the nuclear power plant is built based on the FNN . The fault symptoms and the possibility of the inverted U-tube break accident of steam generator are discussed. In order to test the system‘ s validity, the inverted U-tube break accident of steam generator is used as an example and many simulation experiments are performed. The test result shows that the FNN can identify the fault.     

基于FTA的渔船海损事故分析

事故树分析(FTA)是一种重要而常用的系统安全分析方法。将该方法运用到了渔船海事分析中,并以渔船触礁事故为例运用事故树描述事故的因果关系,进行定性分析,确定出事故的主要因素,提出了事故的控制措施。研究结果表明,在渔船海损事故分析中应用事故树分析方法,有利于对事故的全面分析,便于找出引发事故的直接原因,总结经验,提出事故预防措施,降低事故发生率,保障渔业生产的健康发展。     

航海风险识别、评估和控制

因航运业高速发展和海员职业流动性加快,导致全球高级船员紧缺,已引发高级船员提升周期缩短、航海经验不足等现象。航海事故造成人员伤亡、财产损失和污染海洋环境等已严重威胁公共安全,航海事故预防和风险控制越来越受到人们关注。船舶海上事故频发,与船员对海上风险,尤其是船员对人为因素与事故的关系的认识不足有关。通过重点介绍航海风险,提高船员对本船和自身存在的风险意识,采取相应的防范措施。     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.