Inland transportation system planning by life-cycle impact assessment: a case study. 2nd report: single comparison index

A model to estimate and compare the ecological impact and economic feasibility of a land transportation system (trucks) and a marine transportation system (cargo ships) was developed and presented in a previous report.¹ Three different comparison indices—environmental, economic, and customer service—were used to evaluate and compare their ecological impacts and determine their economic superiority. In this article, a single comparison index is proposed and assessed for the two transportation systems. The estimates were made for nine different routes in Japan. A simple mathematical model of the whole methodology is given. The sensitivity of the weighting factors used in the comparison method was analyzed. The social cost saving in monetary terms through a modal shift is also presented. Received: February 15, 2001 / Accepted: September 19, 2001     

Inland transportation system planning by life cycle impact assessment: a case study

The comparison of land and inland water transportation from economical and ecological points of view is discussed. Required freight rates for trucks and ships are calculated and compared to find which has economic superiority. From the environmental impacts of these two transportation types, the comparative environmental destruction indices for two different time-durations are estimated. All these investigations were conducted for the Yokohama–Fukuoka route in Japan. Life cycle impact assessment, a very useful tool for quantitatively evaluating the environmental influence of a product, was used to compare the environmental burden imposed by these types of transportation. Finally, the way that these results can be used for inland transportation system planning is discussed. Received: January 21, 2000 / Accepted: June 27, 2000     

A quantitative risk analysis by using interval type-2 fuzzy FMEA approach: the case of oil spill

ABSTRACT

Risk assessment in maritime domain is one of the most cited topics since maritime transportation poses potential hazard for human life, marine environment and property. To mitigate risk and enhance safety awareness in maritime transportation, safety researchers have been seeking proactive solutions. This article prompts a quantitative risk-based approach combining interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to perform a comprehensive risk analysis. Thus, potential failure modes and their effects are revealed by calculating risk prioritisation numbers (RPNs). Whilst the FMEA method provides a robust risk analysing tool with relevant control options, the IT2FSs deals with ambiguity and vagueness of linguistic assessment of decision-makers through the FMEA. Hence, expert’s linguistic assessment in risk assessment can be transformed into useful information in terms of enhancing safety and pollution prevention in maritime industry. To demonstrate the proposed approach, potential failures and effects of a real shipboard oil spill case are handled. The findings show that incomplete information exchanged with local maritime authorities, malfunction of oil skimmer and poor organization of shoreline clean-up team are the most important failures during case of oil spill. The proposed approach provides not only theoretical insight into the maritime transportation industry but also practical contributions to chemical/oil tanker safety and environmental protection by mitigating risk in terms of technical or operational aspects.     

大型复杂齿轮箱底架模态分析方法

本文探讨针对某复杂齿轮箱底架结构的一种模态分析方法。该齿轮箱底架尺寸较大,质量与刚度分布情况复杂。试验模态分析所需的试验条件要求高,对于力锤的选择和传感器的数量都有较高的要求。此外在有限元模态分析中会存在模态密集、模态向量繁杂、模态振型云图无法提取等问题。该齿轮箱底架结构特殊,近似案例很少,因而鲜有相关的计算参考。本文主要提出以扫频分析为理论基础,辅以虚拟梁的一种近似方法来求出该复杂大型结构的固有频率与振型。其计算结果较直接模态分析更能体现结构在工作状态下的模态情况,亦能对设备工作频率的选取以及结构刚度优化提供有益的帮助。     

军运船舶配积载风险评估及对策分析

分析了军运船舶配积载中存在的风险,将风险矩阵引入到军运船舶配积载的风险评估中,为军运船舶配积载提供了一种结构性风险评估方法。并提出较有见地的应对之策,为科学合理地组织军运船舶配积载提供了依据。     

船舶交通安全评价方法比较研究

对港口水上交通安全现状进行评估,采取针对性的安全措施是保障水上交通运输系统安全的前提,对国内外各种不同安全评价方法进行比较,着重地介绍规范化安全评估(FSA),以期能够更好地找出适合我国海运事业发展的方法,保障船舶的航行安全。     

船舶溢油风险评估方法的探讨

船舶溢油风险评估在船舶防污染管理方面应用十分广泛,但如何进行评估,尚没有一个统一的方法。笔者在承担船舶溢油风险评估项目过程中,对风险评估方法进行了一些探索,文中将根据自己的体会,就风险评估中的一些难点问题与大家讨论。     

A critical review of container security operations

Containers, which permit fast and safe handling between modal systems, are the main equipment used in intermodal transport. Unfortunately, enhancement of the efficiency and velocity of container operations has created a breach in traditional security, also known as container security. This paper presents a critical literature review of container security operations. We aim to identify current trends and future research directions in container security. We propose a classification framework based on the following elements: presenting the container security perspective, identifying threats, evaluating container security, balancing costs/benefits and the degree of security, balancing time savings/reduction and the degree of security, and securing containerized transportation processes. We discuss the current studies of these problems, the methodologies adopted and important insights into container security.     

上海港船舶污染事故风险评估研究

对船舶污染事故风险进行评估,提高预防能力,对确保港口生产、保护城市安全有重要意义。综合分析了近10年来上海港发生的船舶污染事故,提出了船舶污染事故风险评估的步骤、等级确定和评估标准。提出了加强船舶污染事故预控能力的对策。以最大程度地消除事故隐患。     

Risk assessment of inland waterborne transportation using data mining

ABSTRACT

China has constructed a relatively complete inland waterborne transportation system. However, the frequent occurrence of inland water accidents with serious consequences, like the catastrophic Orient Star shipwreck, is an urgent unsolved problem. To reduce such accidents in the future and improve inland waterborne transportation safety, this study uses data mining, mainly containing text mining and association rule mining to risk assess China’s inland waterborne transportation, rather than the traditional quantitative risk assessment model. Text mining enables the risk factors to be objectively identified and distilled from accident reports. The potential relationships between risk variables are explored using association rule mining, based on the FP-Growth algorithm. The results reveal the essential problem facing China’s inland waterborne transportation system: frequent and varied ship accidents; key risk factors include overloading or improper loading, poor navigation visibility, inadequate sailor competence, and insufficient government supervision of shipowners and shipping companies. Combining the actual circumstances of inland waterborne transportation operations, this study proposes relevant recommendations for governments and relevant supervisory departments. The integrated application of text mining and association rule mining serves to avoid uncertainty and subjectivity, and achieve good results proving their scientific nature as a feasible method in water transportation risk research.     

基于隐患分析的海洋钻修机井架及底座安全评估

针对海洋钻修机井架及底座的安全评估方法的局限性,采用安全检查表法(SCL)、故障类型及影响分析法(FMEA),以及事故树分析法(FTA)从设备隐患的角度出发对井架进行全面的安全评价,结果表明:SCL可有效识别井架及底座存在的隐患,隐患发生在二层台及井架主体部位居多,安装不合理为最主要的隐患形式;FMEA方法可识别出井架及底座常见故障类型、原因,以及影响;采用FTA方法分析梳理出井架及底座常见事故产生的原因。     

规范化安全评估与港口船舶交通安全

港口船舶交通是海上交通运输系统的一个子系统。该系统所具有的危险性，可能造成的损失，人们可接受的风险值究竟如何，所有这些都依赖于有效和合理的安全评价。规范化安全评估(FSA)是近年来国外已在不断推广应用的一种安全评估方法。在简要介绍FSA特点与实施步骤的基础上，文中根据港口船舶交通安全评估的实际情况与需要，采用人工神经网络的方法对港口船舶交通系统的模型和技术路线进行了论述，并就相应人为因素的研究提出一些建议，以改进港口船舶交通安全工作和提高其安全水平。     

港口工程船舶污染环境风险与评估

船舶水上运输在促进经济发展的同时带来较高的污染风险。通过介绍广州港某石化码头工程船舶污染环境风险评估的事故风险识别、项源分析和影响预测几个环节,指出此类工程风险评估的难点,提出试行船舶污染海洋环境风险评价技术规范需要完善的建议。     

舟山海域油品码头布局与溢油风险评估

提出了一个基于不确定性分析理论的区域油品码头空间布局的溢油风险模拟与评估方法。该方法可系统分析沿海区域油品码头空间布局及其产生的海域溢油风险的空间分布规律,能够满足我国当前近海高强度开发形势下战略环评和环境风险评估的技术需求。以舟山海域为研究对象,通过油品码头布局模型和不确定性分析,对舟山海域进行综合溢油风险评估,结果表明该方法可以用于综合评估某一海区的溢油风险水平;基于溢油风险概率和污染损害的时空分布,依据风险值集中度最大及风险总值最小的原则,能够实现多种码头布局方案下的海域溢油风险水平的综合比较,并得到最优油品码头布局方案。     

Estimation of CO2 reduction for Japanese domestic container transportation based on mathematical models

This research discusses domestic feeder container transportation connected with international trades in Japan. Optimal round trip courses of container ship fleet from the perspective of CO₂ emission reduction are calculated and analyzed to obtain basic knowledge about CO₂ emission reduction in the container feeder transportation system. Specifically, based on the weekly origin–destination (OD) data at a hub port (Kobe) and other related transportation data, the ship routes are designed by employing a mathematical modeling approach. First, a mixed integer programming model is formulated and solved by using an optimization software that employs branch and bound algorithm. The objective function of the model is to minimize the CO₂ emission subject to necessary (and partially simplified) constraints. The model is then tested on various types of ships with different speed and capacity. Moreover, it is also tested on various waiting times at hub port to investigate the effect in CO₂ emission of the designated fleet. Both the assessment method of container feeder transportation and the transportation’s basic insights in view of CO₂ emission are shown through the analysis.     

Environmental risk evaluation criteria

This paper describes an approach to incorporating environmental risk evaluation criteria within IMO’s guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). Such criteria are currently absent from FSA, and the discussion to include them has just started. Said criteria are relevant for evaluating on a cost-benefit basis Risk Control Options (RCOs) for reducing oil spill pollution risk. Oil pollution may comefrom any ship, including bunker spills from non-tank vessels. RCOs are not necessarily ship-based, and may include vessel traffic management information systems (VTMIS) and other options. The proposed approach may be useful in extending FSA to cover environmental risk evaluation criteria and combines such criteria with criteria already in use in FSA. It can also readily be extended to environmental consequences other than oil pollution. Recent IMO developments on this matter are also reported.     

渤海湾底质重金属污染及其潜在生态风险评价

基于渤海湾22个监测点3年的监测数据,应用Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法,分析了渤海湾天津段表层沉积物中5种重金属的含量与分布,并进行生态风险评价。结果表明:渤海湾为轻微生态危害,其中镉的污染程度最大,锌的污染程度最小,5种重金属危害系数顺序为:Cd>Hg>Pb>Cu>Zn。     

基于案例推理的港口工程建设风险评价研究

港口工程属于国家的交通基础设施,投资规模较大.港口建设技术专业性强、涉及面广,建设过程中受自然、社会、环境等条件的影响较大、不确定因素较多,港口项目的风险是投资方和建设者非常重视的问题.本研究结合工程实例,运用案例推理法构建评价指标体系和评价模型,分析研究港口工程建设的风险及其影响因素.     

船舶防污染作业等级评定量化研究

文章应用模糊数学评估方法,建立船舶防污染作业等级评定模型,为量化研究船舶防污染作业单位安全状况提供了具体的方法和依据。最后结合辖区实际进行了验证。     

Analysis of ship drifting in a narrow channel using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data

With maritime transportation has played an important role in global economy development, ship traffic has become more congested. Therefore, ships navigate under risk conditions, and thus maritime accidents have occurred frequently. Especially, ship passing through a narrow channel is even more dangerous. Because, the ships are easy to be affected by external forces such as wind and currents that can cause ship drifts. Many latent risks are present during navigation. In order for the development of a sensible and appropriate traffic model for the safety and efficiency ship navigation, this study has focused on the actual ship behavior to understand the ship drift in the Kurushima Strait, Japan, which is one of the most dangerous routes in Japan. The analysis of ship behavior was carried out using the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. As a result, the ships drift was understood in detail, and the latent risk was unveiled when ships pass through the narrow route. Moreover, the risk areas were obtained and visualized by the ship drift behavior analysis. The obtained results can be applied to ensure safe navigation and the development of an eco-friendly and economy efficient for ship navigation.