考虑货-港双方利益的港口经济腹地划分模型

港口经济腹地的合理划分关系着港口生产与发展大局。对此,为准确划分港口经济腹地范围,综合考虑货主方成本和港口方收益的因素,从"效用"的角度出发,提出划分港口经济腹地范围的新模型。同时,应用蚁群算法进行求解,并以厦门港和宁波港经济腹地范围划分实例为例,验证模型的正确性和实用性。     

基于GIS的港口腹地划分模型

首次尝试运用地理信息系统(GIS)来划分港口腹地,既为消除主观因素影响又考虑到货主选择港口的随机性,在改进哈夫模型的基础上引入GIS中"栅格"的概念,从而构建出度量港口对腹地吸引力的密度模型,并首次运用GIS软件对模型进行求解。据此,以中国东北地区的大连港和营口港为实例分析该模型,分别划分两港腹地,所得计算结果与实际情况基本相符,表明基于GIS的密度模型具有实践意义。     

关于港口滚装吞吐量腹地划分的探讨

港口腹地划分,就是划分港口经济合理的服务范围,它是港口建设可行性研究的重要步骤。如果腹地划分不正确,就会影响运量预测的准确性,进而影响建设方案的选择和论证。同时,划分腹地对编制计划、揭示不合理运输、促进生产力布局日趋合理等都有重要作用。随着社会生产力的发展,新的运输方式也在不断出现,而近年来我国海峡间滚装运输(亦称汽车轮渡)的蓬勃发展,尤其是渤海海峡的烟连航线已成为我国条件最优越的滚装航线。 滚装运输具有提高港口通过能力、提高船舶航行率、节省汽车绕行公路的费用和时间、加快物资周转、缩短资金在途时间、提高社会效益的极大效果,被誉为海上“蓝色公路”。我国适合于这种运输发展的区域很多,如渤海海峡、杭州湾等都与滚装运输发展优势相适应。我们对这一新兴运输方式所具有的特殊性和规律性应进行研究,以适应发展需要。为此,本文拟就港口滚装货物吞吐量腹地特点、腹地划分方法及其运量预测影响因素作一探讨。 一、腹地划分涵义 过去,在传统方式(即船舶直接载货)上形成的港口腹地定义是:港口腹地是经由该港吞进货物的消费地和经由该港吐出货物的生产     

港口腹地划分的两种新方法探讨--以大连国际航运中心为例

引入经济地理学的新理论成果———圈层结构法和点轴法,提出了圈层结构划分法和点轴结构划分法两种新的港口腹地划分方法,并应用这两种新方法对大连国际航运中心港口腹地范围的界定与划分进行实例分析。与以往的行政区划法、经济区域法等港口腹地划分方法相比,这两种方法更加注重对港口原有腹地的细分,更接近于港口腹地的实际状况,进而有利于港口企业的经营发展。     

国内外港口经济腹地研究述评

为今后进行港口与腹地等相关研究提供理论基础，通过对港口腹地的划分、港城关系、交通运输及港口发展等国内外相关文献的归纳与评价，提出应从以下几方面作进一步研究：（1）从内陆交通运输与海运技术相结合的角度对港口与区域发展进行研究；（2）在港口对共同腹地的吸引和相互作用方面多进行定量研究，提高对腹地范围分析的深度和准确性；（3）揭示港口自身发展规律及其与腹地范围扩大的相互作用机制；（4）从微观角度研究港口、城市、区域有机结合与内陆经济腹地的空间相互作用及其对区域港口腹地范围的划分；（5）采用定量方法对港口腹地范围和空间分布情况作深层次研究。     

区域港口一体化发展下港口腹地范围演变规律研究

为探究区域港口一体化发展下港口经济腹地的演变规律,以港口资源整合前后的大连港和营口港为例,运用改进的腹地烟羽模型对2018、2020年的港口腹地范围进行测算,结合Arcgis软件绘制各港口单纯与混合腹地空间分布,通过各港口腹地范围演化特征分析港口一体化发展策略。研究结果表明：港口整合后各港口综合影响力差距缩小,大连港与营口港腹地范围差距减小、混合腹地范围扩大。港口一体化发展背景下,各港口发展侧重于腹地范围的均衡协调,避免同质化竞争,实现合理分工。     

港口群的概念与港口布局规划

阐述港口群的概念及其应用范围、运用港口群概念编制港口布局规划的益处,认为把港口群的概念运用于港口布局规划是研究方法的创新。论述划分港口群、确定港口群腹地和确定港口群功能时的注意事项,提出增加包括连云港港、日照港在内的鲁南苏北港口群的建议及应该得到政府扶持的港口群。     

腹地经济发展对港口吞吐量影响的动态研究

腹地经济规模和经济结构的变化影响着港口的发展方向，但是一般的静态回归模型中解释变量参数是固定的，无法反应腹地各种影响因素变化对港口吞吐量产生的动态影响，而变参数状态空间模型克服了这一缺陷，解释变量的参数可以随时间改变，充分体现了解释变量对因变量影响关系的改变，因此能够更加准确反映考察期内腹地各种因素对港口吞吐量的动态影响。在介绍模型的基础上，就东北经济对大连港集装箱吞吐量影响进行了实证研究，得出了较为详尽的结论，这些结论是港口未来发展的重要决策依据。     

考虑安全的烟花爆竹水运经济影响建模

考虑政策与规划、社会环境和安全应急三方面,基于层次分析法建立烟花爆竹水运经济影响的层次结构模型。在专家调研的基础上,确定烟花爆竹水运经济影响的因素集,和各因素对港口及腹地经济的影响权重及影响等级,从而评价烟花爆竹水运出口对其港口及腹地的经济影响。模型通过3个一级因素和27个二级因素的影响评价,可较为准确地得出烟花爆竹水运的综合经济影响,具有较强的适用性。     

基于蚁群算法的港口间接腹地划分模型

针对港口腹地划分问题,分析了以前文献中求解此问题的局限性,建立了内陆城市最佳出口运输路线的概念,引入蚁群算法这一新兴的人工智能方法,将其运用到内陆城市出海运输通道优化中,建立了一种新的港口腹地划分方法.最后以一个典型算例说明了该算法的有效性.研究表明,蚁群算法可以为港口腹地划分问题提供新的解决办法.     

A conceptual framework for cooperation in hinterland development between neighbouring seaport authorities

The hinterland of a port is probably the most important aspect in the competition between gateway ports. This paper, starting with a literature overview, shows how the port authority can extend its hinterland with the aim of increasing its attractiveness and, eventually, its throughput. To achieve this, it can be advantageous to cooperate with adjacent port authorities. Together, through cooperation, economies of scale can be realised that facilitate a modal shift away from road to a more efficient and more sustainable transport. This would reduce the cost of transport to/from the hinterland region from/to these ports consequently increasing the attractiveness and the market share of the cooperating ports for this region. The paper describes a conceptual method to identify and quantify the opportunities for cooperation in the hinterland. The framework starts, after some basic transport economic concepts, from (theoretically available) hinterland data to locate regions that are at the edge of the contested hinterland of a port region and results in a methodology that can be used to generate a quantified list of regions where cooperation will make a difference. Using this methodology, port authorities (PAs), of any region where hinterland data are available, can list, together with their neighbours, the regions where to prioritise their efforts.     

Impact of scale increase of container ships on the generalised chain cost

In recent years, an increase in the size of the container ships could be observed. The question is how these larger ships will influence the total generalised costs from a port of loading to a destination in the European hinterland. The second question is whether a scale increase of the container ships on other loops, such as a loop from the United States to Europe, has the same impact on the generalised chain costs as on the loop from Asia to Europe. A derived question is which element of the total chain has the highest importance, and whether this balance varies as the ship size changes. In this article, a model is developed that allows answering the above research questions. The model is designed to simulate the cost of a complete loop of a container ship and of a chain that uses that same loop. For the chain cost simulation, the maritime part is determined by the loop. From the ports of loading and unloading, the port container handling and the hinterland transportation costs are also integrated. The model also allows calculating the total chain cost from a point of origin (either a hinterland region or a port) to a destination point (also a port or a hinterland region). An actual container loop of a container shipping company can be introduced in the model. An application is made to two existing container loops, namely from Asia respectively the United States to Europe. It turns out that changing ship does indeed lead to economies of scale, but also that the impact is larger on the Asia–Europe connection than on the US–Europe connection. Furthermore, the maritime component has the biggest share in the total chain cost, but as ship size increases, the shares start getting closer to each other. This research contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First of all, it quantifies the impact of the scale increase of container ships throughout the total chain. Second, this is done from a bottom-up engineering modelling approach.     

Smaller ports’ evolution towards catalysing sustainable hinterland development

ABSTRACT

From simple organizations as gateways for goods and passengers, ports have evolved and transformed into complex organizational systems with multiple functions. Besides providing cargo, logistics, and other kinds of services to its customers, modern ports engage in the development of their hinterlands. Sustainability, evolving from environmental actions over the years, has become the core of many modern ports’ approach towards hinterland development and port competitiveness. While the literature is concerned with and presents examples of large ports implementing sustainability initiatives, the literature is scarce on smaller ports. This article addresses this gap by exploring qualitatively the case of the Port of Aalborg, a medium-sized port in Denmark, and its evolution towards using sustainability for port and hinterland development. The research focuses on the actions behind environmental development at the port. Its evolution is mapped and explored using the analytical framework developed based on the (larger) ports’ development and their roles. The findings from the Port of Aalborg case exemplify how smaller ports can evolve to drive the sustainable development of their hinterlands and contribute to a better understanding of this kind of port.     

巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港集装箱吞吐量预测

为评估新建巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的建设规模,构建由回归分析模型、腹地集装箱运输需求重力模型、多目标港口模糊评价模型和基于Logit模型的港口选择模型4部分组成的综合预测方法。对巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的腹地集装箱运输需求进行预测;并对腹地省份在不同港口的集装箱运量进行测算,从而科学合理地预测科考瑞港的集装箱吞吐量,为实施项目的必要性提供支持。该预测方法使用较少的基础数据即可比较科学客观地预测新建港口的集装箱吞吐量,能够较好地解决在不发达国家或地区统计资料缺失、安全局势不稳定导致腹地调研困难等情况下的吞吐量预测问题,为海外港口的建设、咨询项目提供帮助。     

大连港对其腹地经济的影响研究

港口和腹地经济发展有着密不可分的天然联系[1]。分析了大连港及其腹地的概况,通过SPSS统计分析软件对大连港与腹地经济的关系进行分析,得出大连港对其腹地经济具有积极影响的结论,从而为港口与腹地经济关系的进一步发展作出指导。     

港口吞吐量概率预测模型研究

为了模拟港口重叠腹地货运流向情况,并对新建港口吞吐量进行合理预测,引入了概率交通方式预测模型并对其进行改进,且在此基础上建立了负指数货运量概率预测模型。将该模型应用于徐州地区新建港区的货运量分析,预测结果表明新模型具有一定的实用性,可以为港口规划和建设规模的确定提供重要参考。     

Port regionalization: towards a new phase in port development

Logistics integration and network orientation in the port and maritime industry have redefined the functional role of ports in value chains and have generated new patterns of freight distribution and new approaches to port hierarchy. Existing models on the spatial and functional evolution of ports and port systems only partially fit into the new freight distribution paradigm. This paper aims to add to existing literature by introducing a port regionalization phase in port and port system development. It is demonstrated that the regionalization phase and associated hinterland concepts demand new approaches to port governance and a functional focus that goes beyond the traditional port perimeter.     

Port regionalization: towards a new phase in port development

Logistics integration and network orientation in the port and maritime industry have redefined the functional role of ports in value chains and have generated new patterns of freight distribution and new approaches to port hierarchy. Existing models on the spatial and functional evolution of ports and port systems only partially fit into the new freight distribution paradigm. This paper aims to add to existing literature by introducing a port regionalization phase in port and port system development. It is demonstrated that the regionalization phase and associated hinterland concepts demand new approaches to port governance and a functional focus that goes beyond the traditional port perimeter.     

江苏沿海港口吞吐量影响因素及预测分析

目前江苏沿海地区综合开发已上升到国家发展战略层面,沿海港口建设正在迅猛开展。港口吞吐量的预测对于港口的建设有着极其重要的意义。以港口和腹地之间的互动关系为出发点,分析了可能影响江苏沿海港口吞吐量的若干因素,采用主成分分析法提取了过去10年影响港口吞吐量的最关键因素,剖析了江苏港口发展的内在影响机理,并提出了基于影响机理的预测模型。最后使用模型对江苏港口吞吐量进行验证分析,模型为江苏沿海港口新一轮发展提供了有力的数据支撑。