共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 750 毫秒
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介绍大连港大窑湾港区设计波的计算和分析,并对常规采用实浊年最大波高系列进行频率分析推算设计波高的计算方法提出看法。 相似文献
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为改善舰载雷达目标检测的性能,对瑞利分布、对数正态分布、韦布尔分布和K分布四种典型海杂波幅度分布模型进行模拟仿真,分析了四种分布模型的特点规律,并采用海杂波实测数据,对模型进行拟合度检验,实验结果表明,K分布海杂波模型实用性广,能够在不同参数下描述多种海况的海杂波分布规律,为抑制海杂波提高目标检测性能提供了理论依据。 相似文献
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采用SWAN波浪模型对江苏南黄海地区1979~2018年共40 a的波况进行模拟及验证,将模拟结果与实测资料进行比对,吻合良好。百年重现波高分布通过基于年极值和月极值的广义极值分布函数(GEV)和超阈值取值方法(POT)的广义帕累托分布模型(GP)计算得出。计算结果表明,不同方法的计算结果在辐射沙洲北部地区差别最大,采用月极值所得重现波高偏小,采用年极值计算的重现波高在辐射沙洲南北外围地区最大,其余地区则以POT方法为大值。在分别采用不同数据长度计算重现波高的试验中得出,取月极值的GEV分布计算结果对时间跨度的改变不敏感,而取年极值受之影响最大,POT方法介于两者之间。 相似文献
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海洋平台环境参数的单因素设计标准无法反映真实海况,文章针对该缺点提出了基于最大熵边缘的三维嵌套逻辑模型。该模型采用的最大熵边缘可以涵盖大多数设计线型,如Gumbel分布、Weibull分布、对数正态分布等;三维嵌套逻辑模型可以反映海洋环境参数的相关关系及变量的不对称性。总结并提出了三种海洋环境条件设计标准,即单因素统计方法、条件概率分布设计法和联合环境条件设计法。利用南海涠洲岛后报的年极值风速及对应有效波高、平均周期数据,对三维模型和海洋平台环境条件联合设计标准进行了实例验证。结果表明,三维模型对数据拟合良好,联合设计标准更符合实际。 相似文献
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The reliability of an offshore structure is dependent on its response to the extreme wave climate; therefore, an adequate knowledge of the wave climate at a location is a prerequisite during design as well as in marine operations. This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of the extreme wave climate in the Norwegian Sector of the Barents Sea, using wave hindcast datasets from the Norwegian Reanalysis 10 km (NORA10) database for four locations.We have considered three commonly used methods for the estimation of extreme wave heights, that is, the initial distribution method, the peak over threshold method, and the annual maxima method. The parametric bootstrap concept is considered in the estimation of the epistemic uncertainty related to sample size. The estimated 100-year significant wave heights obtained from the three methods differ, and the degree of variability in the estimates varies, depending on the dataset. The epistemic uncertainty due to sample size is wider when considering the annual maxima method.The estimates obtained from the three methods show the importance of considering different methods and their associated uncertainties when estimating extreme wave values for design. While it is difficult to single out the best method among the three, the estimated values give knowledge of the possible range of the extreme significant wave heights at the locations. Generally, the datasets considered in this study suggest that the wave climate is less harsh further north compared to the southern region of the Barents Sea. The datasets do not suggest any temporal trends in the historical significant wave heights at any of the locations. 相似文献
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《船舶与海洋工程学报》2019,(3)
The probability distributions of wave characteristics from three groups of sampled ocean data with different significant wave heights have been analyzed using two transformation functions estimated by non-parametric and parametric methods. The marginal wave characteristic distribution and the joint density of wave properties have been calculated using the two transformations, with the results and accuracy of both transformations presented here. The two transformations deviate slightly between each other for the calculation of the crest and trough height marginal wave distributions, as well as the joint densities of wave amplitude with other wave properties. The transformation methods for the calculation of the wave crest and trough height distributions are shown to provide good agreement with real ocean data. Our work will help in the determination of the most appropriate transformation procedure for the prediction of extreme values. 相似文献
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船舶横摇非线性运动最大值预报 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
横摇运动振幅渐近分布属于指数型分布,根据应用Markov过程理论得到的极值分布推导了最大值分布公式,同时提出了最大值预报方法。计算表明用此方法预报的最大值与实际统计的最大值非常接近,它比用线性理论预报的最大值误差要小,证明本文提出的最大值预报方法是可行的。 相似文献
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王言英 《船舶与海洋工程学报》2008,7(3):162-167
In order to respond the discredit on the design wave standard and to recommend new consideration on design wave parameters, based on the long-term distribution of statistic characteristics of waves and the short-term probability properties of sea state defined by giving the return period, the calculation of the return period, the height, the period, and the oceanic wave parameters of the design wave and the forecasting methods are discussed in this paper. To provide references for the operation reliability of floating structures in the extreme sea state, the method of determining the design wave parameters is resurveyed. A proposal is recommended that the design wave, which can be either significant wave with 500-year of the return period, or the maximum wave with 1/N of exceeding probability, 100-year of the return period, can be applied in the engineering design practice. 相似文献
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This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems. 相似文献