ENSO循环对7月—8月北上热带气旋及对航海的影响

对1950年～1992年COADS资料和7月～8月西北太平洋热带气旋的路径资料进行了初步的统计分析.结果表明从年际变化的时间尺度上来看,在厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)现象出现后,赤道中、西太平洋纬向风正(负)异常,近赤道地区(10°N～20°N)中、西太平洋出现纬向风负(正)异常,Hadley环流加强(减弱),副热带高压增强(减弱),因此,7月～8月西北太平洋北上热带气旋出现的次数少(多).该规律已被1997年～2000年北上热带气旋的数目所证实.热带气旋是影响船舶航行安全最重要的灾害性天气系统之一.远洋运输船舶可以根据上述规律对相应季节的航线设计、船舶载重线、船舶操纵、运输途中的货物保管及港口装卸等都要做相应的调整和采取适当的措施,避免或减少不必要的损失.     

“厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜”现象与航海

厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象是国际社会普遍关注的问题,本文以1997～1998年发生的厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象为例,通过对其概念的描述,介绍了此现象对全球气候的影响,特别强调了对航海活动的影响,以使航运界对其加以重视.     

全球性的海盗现象和对策

1全球性的海盗和海上武装抢窃 长期严重困扰国际航运业的海盗事故（piracyincident），实际上是性质有所区别的两类事件的统称：海盗侵袭（piracyattack）和海上武装抢窃（armedrobberyatsea）o根据国际海事局（InternationalMaritimeBureau，IMB）2006年底的统计数字，虽然2006年是海盗事件数量自1992年以来的第3个出现下降的年份，但当年的事件中对船员施暴的程度却有所升级。     

2004年海盗事件发生状况

国际商会（ICC）的下属机构国际海事局（IMB）公布了有关向该局海盗情报中心（设于吉隆坡）报告的海盗事件（含未遂事件）情况的报告。     

Erika号溢油案赔偿金达4000万美元

日前．震惊一时的37000dwt的Erika号溢油事件责任相关方即国际油污赔偿基金（IOPC）、船舶互保协会（P＆I）、意大利船级社（RINA）和法国石油公司（Total）就该事件的赔偿达成了一致协议。该协议规定，责任相关的四方同意就1999年12月发生的Erika溢油事故撤销诉讼并放弃进一步起诉。     

全球干散货运输市场

7月份国际干散货市场呈冲高回落走势.BDI从6月21日开始连涨19个交易日,7月18日涨至今年以来的最高748点,累计上涨168点,累计涨幅达29％.这轮行情主要是中小船型带动,巴拿马型船领涨各船型市场,灵便型船运价一度攀升至9个月以来新高. 南北方地区相继出现的暴雨天气影响煤炭运输,主要发运港煤炭库存继续下降及锚地待装煤炭船舶数量不断增加,南方地区进入高温烧烤模式用电负荷增加拉动电煤日耗水平的不断回升,太平洋市场内外贸航线运力供应相对紧张,东澳和印度尼西亚至中国和印度的巴拿马型船煤炭运输活跃.同样是厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜的作用,导致农产品价格预期上升,特别是南美阿根廷天气干旱,产量受到影响,大豆价格上涨,带动承运谷物等农产品的中小船型运价大幅上涨.     

中日韩三国船级社召开特别会议

2008年10月16日．中国、日本、韩国三国船级社在北京召开特别会议，就国际船级社协会（IACS）当前的热点问题．尤其是欧盟对IACS的反垄断调查事件进行了讨论，对调查事件给IACS带来的影响进行了分析。会议还对亚洲船级社扩大合作等议题进行了探讨。     

交通流非线性回归模型的变点统计分析

以往的交通流状态辨识主要集中在交通流状态预辨识（即交通流预测）和实时辨识（即事件检测或交通流突变检测）上,在一定程度上忽略了对交通流变量规律的辨认。依据交通流理论,采用非线性回归模型变点的统计方法,对变点识别的关键问题进行了分析。结合淄博市中心路的实地数据对本方法进行了标定和检验,验证了方法的有效性和可行性。     

海盗和武装抢劫事件－报告至主管机关——IMO决议A．683（17）

圣文森特海事主管机关于2011年5月13日向所有船东、船舶经营人、管理人公司、保安员、船东和船舶保安员发布了针对海盗和武装抢劫事件的IMO第A683（17）号决议，并明确了发生海盗和武装抢劫事件应报告给主管机关的相关要求。     

业界打击海盗及配备私人武装保安新动态

一、2012年海盗袭击事件概况 据国际海事局（IMB）最新发布的报告显示，2012年全球范围内的海盗袭击数量创5年来新低。特别是索马里海域的海盗袭击数量骤降，但该地区发生的袭击事件仍占到全球海盗事件总量的近1／4，而且高度武装的索马里海盗仍具有极大的攻击性。此外，海军先发制人的强力打击、私人武装的保安队伍和船员的巧妙应对使得非洲东岸的海盗袭击事件有大幅减少，但东非和西非海域仍然是海盗袭击的高发区。下表是2012年全球海盗袭击事件的统计数据（见表1和图1）。     

Tropical cyclone genesis over the south China sea

The South China Sea (SCS) is among areas in the Northwest Pacific most frequented by tropical cyclones (TCs) with intensity reaching a tropical storm or stronger. It is also an area of significant TC genesis. In this study, TC genesis in SCS and its monsoonal variability for 1948–2003 are analyzed. Altogether, in May–September (southwest monsoon period) 157 TC geneses have occurred north of 12°N in SCS, while in October–December (northeast monsoon period) 64 out of 65 TC geneses have happened south of 18°N. It is found that the monsoonal characteristics of the SCS basically determine the region of TC genesis in each monsoon season. Winter TC genesis in the SCS happens over the region where the marine environment satisfies the four criterions on, respectively, the sea surface temperature (SST), mid-troposphere relative humidity, vertical shear of the horizontal winds and low-level atmospheric vorticity. During the summer, as the two criterions on SST and the mid-troposphere relative humidity are satisfied for the whole SCS, TC genesis occurs in the region where both the low-level vorticity and the vertical shear satisfy the criterion. In addition, there is likely more TC genesis in the winter during the onset of La Nina, and more TC genesis in the summer following the onset of El Nino.     

Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. Here, we address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.     

Climate change and the future Maritime Policy for the EU

A cross-cutting Maritime Policy can ensure that climate change threats and challenges in regards to seas and oceans are dealt with in a wide policy framework that takes into account the impacts that climate change may have on other sectors and vice versa.     

Visual Communication of Climate Change: Local Framing and Place Attachment

To examine the effects of local versus global message framing concerning climate change, data were gathered from 114 undergraduate students at a Southern US coastal university. The experiment accounted for participants' perceived attachment to their environments (place attachment) to observe whether it related to increased engagement and risk perceptions. Messages were most effective in eliciting environmental action when local effects of climate change were emphasized. Those reporting more connection to their local environments perceived more risks and intended more mitigating actions. The results may assist practitioners, researchers, and decision makers in developing more effective approaches to climate change mitigation.     

Climate Change and Tourist Comfort on Europe's Beaches in Summer: A Reassessment

Major impacts of climate change have been projected for tourism in Europe. Typically, these projections took general tourism activities such as sight-seeing and their climate requirements as their point of reference. The purpose of this study is to reassess the impact of climate change, by looking specifically at beach tourism in summer, a crucial market segment in Europe and more specifically in the Mediterranean. As beach tourism requires relatively high temperatures, relatively modest shifts in attractiveness are found. With respect to climate, the Mediterranean is likely to remain Europe's prime region for summer-time beach tourism for at least the next 50 years. Coastal managers in Mediterranean destinations are advised to focus some of their attention on other climate change impacts such as sea-level rise or water availability, and include environmental quality and diversification of activities in their deliberations. In non-Mediterranean regions, a promising strategy may be to focus on short- and medium-distance visitors who can take advantage of the new opportunities for beach tourism, and to explore the merits of seasonal climate forecasting.     

Institutional and Conceptual Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal Cultural Heritage

Climate change is increasing the speed at which tangible coastal cultural heritage is changing in character or being lost through weathering, erosion, and inundation. Damages to coastal archeological sites, loss of access to historical sites, and the alteration of cultural landscapes will force changes in the way researchers can study sites, tourists can enjoy places, and descendant communities who have lived in particular areas for time immemorial, and local community members can utilize and relate to landscapes. In the USA, the National Park Service is a primary coastal cultural resource management organization. The National Park Service has been working on climate change adaptation for cultural resources for over a decade; however, there are few examples of parks in which long range climate change adaptation plans for cultural resources have been implemented. Building from 20 semi-structured interviews with cultural resource managers in three parks, we found that institutional structures within the National Park Service, as well as historical conceptual framings specific to the research, recreational, and interpretive values of cultural resources act as barriers to managers’ ability to design and implement climate change adaptation plans. Institutional barriers managers discussed include the dependence of climate change adaptation decisions partnership projects and the leveraging of budgetary and staff resources within NPS that may affect climate change adaptation capacity. We found that park managers often saw impacts in parks that may be associated with climate change, but found it difficult to separate normal maintenance from climate change affected deterioration, which may lead to status quo management actions rather than revised planning for a changing future regime. Conceptual barriers managers discussed revealed a conflict between preservation needs of research versus interpretive uses and while NPS guidance recommends prioritization of cultural resources for preservation at the park level, regional managers were more focused on this topic than park managers. As NPS moves forward with climate change adaptation planning, opportunities to develop and improve cultural resource preservation with new technologies, improved prioritization schemes, and include public input in resource preservation may help coastal managers overcome these barriers.     

Port Decision Maker Perceptions on the Effectiveness of Climate Adaptation Actions

Effective adaptation to climate change impacts is rapidly becoming an important research topic. Hitherto, the perceptions and attitudes of stakeholders on climate adaptation actions are under researched, partly due to the emphasis on physical and engineering aspects during the adaptation planning process. Building on such considerations, the paper explores the perceptions of port decision makers on the effectiveness of climate adaptation actions. The findings suggest that while port decision makers are aware of potential climate change impacts and feel that more adaptation actions should be undertaken, they are skeptical about their effectiveness and value. This is complemented by a regional analysis on the results, suggesting that more tailor-made adaptation measures suited to local circumstances should be developed. The study illustrates the complexity of climate adaptation planning and of involving port decision makers under the current planning paradigm.     

Climate Change and Coastal Management Decisions: Insights from Christchurch Bay,UK

The integration of climate change adaptation considerations into management of the coast poses major challenges for decision makers. This article reports on a case study undertaken in Christchurch Bay, UK, examining local capacity for strategic response to climate risks, with a particular focus on issues surrounding coastal defense. Drawing primarily on qualitative research with local and regional stakeholders, the analysis identifies fundamental disjunctures between generic concerns over climate change and the adaptive capacity of local management institutions. Closely linked with issues of scale, the problems highlighted here are likely to have broad and continuing relevance for future coastal management elsewhere.     

黄渤海风浪气候统计分析

了解掌握黄渤海风浪气候规律和特征,对于海上运输、海域工程施工及港口建设、石油钻井开采、军事和海上生产活动等,均有着重要意义;同时,加强海洋气候的科学研究,提高海浪预报准确率,对于减少海洋气象灾害也有着十分显著的经济和社会效益。     

大洋航线气候区划

根据大洋航线的气候特征，尤其是用风、雾、浪、流的时空分布进行分区，把各大洋航线划分为极地航区、温带航区、副热带航区、信风航区、赤道航区，每个航区又划分出若干亚区，对远洋航行航线选择，实现安全经济航行是十分重要的。