市际出行交通方式选择行为研究

以荷兰奈梅亨市居民市际交通出行调查数据为基础,分析居民出行特征,建立binary logit模型定量分析影响居民出行方式选择的主要因素,并借助BIOGEME、SPSS软件对出行方式选择模型参数进行标定。分析结果表明:车外时间、车内时间、出行目的是影响出行交通方式选择的主要因素,并提出相关城市交通规划管理对策。     

基于潜在类别模型的网约车用户市场细分

为深入理解网约车用户出行需求,使用潜在类别模型对网约车用户进行市场细分。选取网约车使用频率、出行特征相关属性以及个人社会经济属性等影响因素对网约车选择行为建模,使用效率实验设计法生成意向偏好问卷,在成都市开展了实地调查。模型标定结果表明:在通勤和非通勤场景下,将网约车用户细分为四类最合适,两个场景下的市场结构比例均约为5:2:2:1。性别、月收入、时间、费用、网约车使用频率、私家车使用权等是对网约车用户进行市场细分的重要依据。     

上海浦东国际机场陆侧交通出行特征分析

本文详细分析了浦东国际机场旅客特征和陆侧交通出行特征,并重点阐述了旅客陆侧交通出行方式选择的影响因素。最后结合机场旅客出行意愿调查分析,为浦东国际机场陆侧交通完善提出建议。     

汽车消费者出行意愿调查与时间价值分析

为探求目前小汽车使用频率较高不下的内在原因,本文设计调查问卷和情景卡并进行实施,分析汽车消费者在不同出行目的、出行距离和收入水平下的时间成本。研究成果从出行成本、出行费用、出行时耗方面探讨了汽车使用消费中存在的社会效益问题。     

出行距离与特大城市外围大型社区居民出行——以上海市为例

近十年我国特大型城市位于城市外环以外的大型居住社区引发了很多交通问题。本文以2012年上海市外围五处大型居住社区居民出行距离为研究对象,详细对比分析了社区区位、周边交通及公共服务设施、居民出行方式等因素与居民出行距离的关系,并分通勤交通和非通勤交通两种方式进行了详细对比。研究发现,通勤交通出行距离与其距离市中心距离成正比,且选择公共交通出行的比例较高。非通勤交通出行距离主要与社区周围公共服务设施水平成反比,公共服务设施服务水平越高则出行距离越短。同时,居民出行距离越长,选择公共交通出行的比例越高;若社区周边设有大型购物娱乐设施可有效减少以购物和休闲娱乐为目的的出行距离。     

气象灾害下公共交通乘客的出行方式选择

随着全球气候变暖,近几年气象灾害频发,对以公共交通出行为主的大城市交通系统影响严重。以城市常见的台风、暴雨为研究背景,建立多元Logit模型,对公共交通乘客的出行选择行为进行预测,得出费用、途中时间和换乘次数三个决策变量对出行选择行为有负效应,其中,途中时间是最主要的影响因素,乘客倾向于选择时间和速度有保证性的地铁方式出行。同时为公共交通管理部门在应急预警方案的制定方面,提供了理论支持,具有较强的现实意义。     

山区公路平纵线形组合设计要点分析

文章介绍了山区公路线性组合设计中的原则,分析了山区公路平纵线形组合设计的影响因素,并将平面线形和纵断面线形设计指标应用到实际工程案例中,合理选择最佳线形组合设计方案,在保证公路施工质量的基础上,构建山区公路立体线形结构,确保交通出行安全。     

基于Logistic-SEM的西安市公共自行车出行行为分析

本文以西安市公共自行车系统为研究对象,利用开放性数据平台以及问卷调查数据分析公共自行车使用者属性与出行行为之间关系。通过构建Logistic-SEM模型发现,学历、年龄、性格、健康状况、有无汽车是影响居民使用公共自行车的显著性因素。按照重要度排序为:年龄有无汽车健康状况学历性格;其次,构建了可用于预测西安市居民是否会选择公共自行车作为出行方式的Logistic模型。同时,由于居民自身属性的不同在出行目的、骑行路线和使用公共自行车出行原因上存在差异,总的来说,居民属性是影响出行行为的根本,出行目的是出行行为选择的关键。     

基于Kirchhoff分布方程的轨道交通多方式接驳选择解析

轨道交通出行与多种出行方式有效衔接，不仅能充分发挥轨道交通的运输能力，且可以有效利用低碳、环保的出行工具。通过建立接驳方式选择模型，可以研究接驳方式选择概率与多要素之间的关系。本文以厦门市为例，研究使用Kirchhoff分布方程建立接驳方式选择模型，并考虑综合出行成本对选择概率的影响，该方法具有考虑各接驳方式综合成本相对差异、计算简单的优势。结果表明：该方法能够较好地分析轨道交通站点的接驳方式选择，合理推导出站点周边接驳出行选择概率与出行距离的关系，能够一定程度反映接驳需求的空间分布。     

出行即服务(MaaS)的定义及发展概述

正出行即服务关注的是服务而不是方式,关键的概念是:将用户(出行者和货物)放在运输服务的核心,为他们提供基于个人需求的量身定制的出行解决方案。出行即服务(Mobility as a Service)是最近几年来在全球交通运输领域逐渐流行起来的一个新概念(关于出行)、一种新现象(新的行为与技术)、一套新方案(整合不同交通方式和出行服务),这个术语是芬兰     

Survey of R&D in PRT systems

A survey of research and development in advanced transit has been made by Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg in cooperation with Trans21 in Boston. Summary findings are reported for fourteen academic research programs and ten development programs for PRT. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the International Conference of PRT and other Emerging Systems held in Minneapolis in 1996.     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

管道风险分析指数评分法中分值调整初探

管道风险分析指数评分法中重要步骤之一就是确定影响管道事故因素的权重,各个管道风险因素在整个管道事故中所占的权重是不相同的。针对目前管道风险分析指数评分法基本假设之一（各因素的分值范围都是0～100分）,为了更加客观、准确、合理地反映各个风险因素对于管道事故的影响程度,提出并论述了依据层次分析法的数学逻辑性进行综合计算得出管道风险因素的权重,然后对评分法中各个因素的最高分值,根据其权重不同进行相应调整,从而增强评价者对风险因素的认识和评判能力,提高管道风险评价结果的准确性。     

A century of evolution of the accessibility concept

The concept of accessibility has acquired numerous meanings along multiple dimensions during the century of its evolution. This essay argues for the salience of two dimensions: application-based and definition-based. In its application, accessibility has incorporated positive and normative dimensions which have varied in prominence over time. In its definition, accessibility has varied between a mode of evaluation incorporating measured mobility and proximity, on the one hand, and a predefined market basket of urbanist improvements to transportation and land use systems, on the other. Advocates of the accessibility shift should emphasize both the measured approach to accessibility and accessibility’s normative side.     

天然气站往复式压缩机活塞失效分析

针对天然气站往复式压缩机活塞的断裂事故,运用失效分析方法,开展了活塞断口扫描电镜分析、能谱和金相分析。根据断口形貌的电镜和金相观察结果,结合理论知识,分析确定了该活塞发生断裂事故的主要原因,即在特定工况下该活塞的材料缺陷是造成断裂的主要因素。     

中国城市道路规划方位性问题研究

文章结合中国的传统建筑文化理念和现代科学原理,从历史文化、能源节约、环境保护、房地产定价、交通安全等多方面分析研究了城市道路在规划和设计时所应遵从的定向规则。     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Planning guidelines for metro–bus interchanges by means of a pedestrian microsimulation model

The big paradigm for cities nowadays is to study the movement of pedestrians at the interface between metro and bus systems – metro–bus interchanges. When these interchanges are not well designed, walking is inefficient and can be unsafe for pedestrians. This paper analyses, by means of a pedestrian microsimulation model, metro–bus interchange spaces in order to propose planning guidelines for the city of Santiago de Chile. Specific objectives are (1) to identify the variables that provide efficiency and safety in those spaces; (2) to simulate different scenarios using the pedestrian simulation model LEGION; (3) to propose planning and design guidelines for pedestrian spaces at metro–bus interchanges; and (4) to contrast the recommendations in the recently opened terminal station on Line 1 of Metro de Santiago: Los Dominicos Station.     

生命大过天

文章介绍了广西壮族自治区公路管理局开展专项行动,治理以桥梁为重点的交通基础设施安全隐患的情况,针对在役桥梁、在建桥梁和农村公路桥梁存在的安全隐患提出了相应的治理措施。