Reliability Analysis of Retracting Actuator with Multi-State Based on Goal Oriented Methodology

In order to conduct effective reliability analysis of retracting actuator with multi-state(success state,safety failure state and action failure state), we redefine type-3 operator in goal oriented(GO) method to describe three states of main charge of retracting actuator and improve type-15 operator in GO method to describe the logic relations of multi-state output. The quantitative and qualitative reliability analyses of retracting actuator are made based on GO method in this paper. The system state probability of retracting actuator is obtained through quantitative analysis, and its weakness is found through qualitative analysis. The analysis results show that GO method is effective to improve the reliability of retracting actuator, and this method is also feasible for reliability analysis of other complicated initiating explosive systems.     

CRH3动车组轮缘润滑系统可靠性分析

将GO法引入到CRH3动车组轮缘润滑系统可靠性分析中.根据轮缘润滑系统的结构原理图构建GO图模型,基于GO法的运算规则及GO法状态概率公式对轮缘润滑系统进行可靠性定量计算,并对其可靠性做出评估.分析计算结果表明该方法可为轮缘润滑系统的可靠性分析和评价提供了科学的量化根据,并为类似系统的可靠性分析提供参考.     

Human reliability analysis method on armored vehicle system considering error correction

Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability statistics in order to analyze, predict, reduce and prevent human errors. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of HRA is proposed based on Markov process theory by using human error probability(HEP) and error correction cycle(ECC) as parameters. And human reliability evaluation criterion is built. Then, the HRA process considering error correction is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM). Finally, according to the characteristics of armored vehicle system, common performance condition(CPC) in CREAM is improved.A reliability impact index is characterized by the overall contexts of tasks. Human reliability evaluation criterion of armored vehicle system is formulated. And the result of HRA is obtained based on the method presented in this paper. In addition, the relative weights are estimated by combining scale of 10/10—18/2 and analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and the triangular fuzzy number considering confidence factor and optimism index is adopted in order to reduce the subjectivity. The analysis results show that the method presented in this paper is reasonable and feasible. Meantime, the method can provide guidance for human reliability analysis of other weapon systems.     

Binary decision diagram quantitative analysis method based on fuzzy set theory

A binary decision diagram(BDD) is a data structure that is used to represent a Boolean function.Converting fault tree into BDD can effectively simplify counting processes and improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the results. However, due to various types of uncertainties in reliability data, we cannot obtain precise failure probabilities. In order to accurately quantify the certainties and obtain much more reliable results, we use BDD method based on fuzzy set theory for reliability quantitative analysis. In this regard, we take W-axis feeding system of heavy-duty computer numerical control(CNC) machine as a project example and adopt fuzzy BDD quantitative analysis method to analyze its reliability. The analysis results(aided by computer calculation)illustrate the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper.     

基于故障树的轨道交通通信系统可靠性研究

介绍了轨道交通通信系统的基本组成部分和故障树分析法的理论基础,在分析通信系统功能框图的基础上,对通信系统进行可靠性研究.构建了轨道交通通信系统故障树,采用最小割集分析法进行了故障树定性分析,并描述求解通信系统可靠度方法.应用故障树分析方法,对提高轨道交通通信系统的可靠度很有帮助.     

电控高压共轨喷油器密封件可靠性分析

利用有限元技术对一种自行设计的电控高压共轨喷油器的密封件进行了强度和可靠性的计算与分析.结果表明,密封件的密封性能取决于燃油压力、密封件自身的材料物理性能、喷油器体与栓塞套间的径向间隙及两者间的偏心度,其中以燃油压力最为重要.     

船舶主机燃油粘度测量技术与控制装置研究

现代船舶为了降低营运成本,提高运营的经济性,主机采用燃烧重油或燃料油,而重油或燃料油的粘度较高,需要经加热调节其粘度以符合主机的雾化质量要求,保证燃烧质量。目前的粘度自动控制系统中的测粘检测使用的测粘计多数为定量泵和毛细管结构,检测其毛细管进出口压差,经差压变送器测量粘度偏差信号进行粘度控制。本文介绍一种在燃油粘度自动控制系统中的粘度检测技术与控制装置,本装置测量定量的燃油在不同粘度下的流动时间与设定值的偏差为被控量进行加热强度的调节,实现燃油粘度的自动控制。     

基于拟不可积哈密顿理论的桥梁动力可靠度计算

为提高铁路桥梁动力可靠度计算的效率,考虑结构非线性,基于振型空间,导出了铁路桥梁动能和势能的表达式,进而根据拟Hamilton系统理论确定铁路混凝土桥梁的广义动量、广义速度、Hamilton函数及拟Hamilton系统方程.只考虑横向位移和扭转位移,导出了铁路混凝土桥梁的拟不可积Hamilton系统方程,得到条件可靠度函数应满足的后向Kolmogorov方程及其定量边界、初值条件,并用中心差分法求解该方程.以实际铁路桥梁为算例,用上述方程求解其在列车荷载作用下的动力可靠度.研究结果表明:非线性桥梁结构的动力可靠度和概率密度峰值随桥梁初始能量增大而减小,随桥梁临界能量增大而增大;不同跨度桥梁的分析结果与实际情况相符,说明基于拟不可积Hamilton系统理论计算铁路桥梁的非线性动力可靠度是可行的.      

基于马尔可夫过程的船舶电力系统可靠性和维修性分析

针对船舶电力系统的可靠性、维修性计算问题,从该系统主要运行方式的基本模型出发,提出了基于马尔可夫过程的船舶电力系统可靠性、维修性分析方法,建立了船舶电力系统可靠性、维修性的数学模型,推导出船舶电力系统可用度与可靠度的表达式,并给出了在船舶电站控制系统中的一个工程应用实例.     

基于二元决策图的系统可靠性模块分析方法

为了克服二元决策图方法分析故障树所存在的不足,提出了基于二元决策图的模块方法分析系统可靠性。采用线性时间算法将故障树分解成相互独立的子故障树,然后用二元决策图方法对子故障树进行分析,递归综合相互独立子故障树的求解结果,得出整个系统的可靠性。基于二元决策图的模块分析方法克服了故障树分析与二元决策图方法存在的不足,适用于大型、复杂系统的可靠性分析。     

网构软件可靠性演化计算研究

为了计算和评估网构软件系统Internet网络环境下的可靠性变化,考虑到可靠性变化影响的积累效应,在网构软件系统结构的基础上构建网构软件系统可靠性转移矩阵,建立了网构软件可靠性演化计算以及演化趋势模型;利用DTMC理论和卷积原理,提出了可靠性演化计算模型,并设计了相应算法,从可靠性及其变化、可靠性变化积累计算3方面精细地进行可靠性演化趋势分析,算法计算复杂度降低到O（Nlog2N）.采用MATLAB模拟实验表明,提出的模型和算法能够有效地进行网构软件可靠性演化分析.      

基于Monte Carlo的行程时间可靠性研究

从分析行程时间可靠性的概念及其重要性入手,提出了路段、路径、OD对以及系统行程时间可靠性的定量计算方法.在路段通行能力随机变化的条件下,基于Monte Carlo仿真建立了行程时间可靠性的求解算法.考虑到行程时间可靠性与出行者路径选择的相互作用,该方法将基于行程时间可靠性的交通分配纳入到行程时间可靠性的评价之中.用一个简单算例进行测试,结果表明该方法能够对行程时间可靠性进行合理评定.     

基于ARMAX代理模型的车-桥耦合系统可靠性研究

为探究车-桥耦合系统可靠性的效率和精度,建立列车-桥梁的耦合振动模型,并采用自回归方法模拟轨道不平顺. 回顾ARMAX （auto-regressive moving average exogenous）模型的基本原理,提出了基于ARMAX代理模型的车-桥耦合系统可靠性分析框架;利用代理模型获得列车响应预测值,并与直接蒙特卡罗模拟（monte carlo simulation,MCS）法结果进行对比,探讨了代理模型在分析行车安全时的计算精度和可靠性分析效率. 结果表明:代理模型预测列车竖向和横向加速度响应的效率显著高于MCS法,约为3个数量级;预测竖向、横向车体加速度的精度分别为98.66%、86.55%,求解精度较好,可显著提高车-桥耦合系统可靠性分析的效率.      

混合动力客车参数正交设计与优化

提出了一种混合动力汽车动力系统结构参数设计的新方法——正交优化设计方法。论文分析了影响混合动力燃油经济性的主要影响因素,利用该方法设计了考查影响混合动力汽车燃油经济性指标的各种因素及其水平数。这种方法不仅可以显著减少试验次数,缩短设计周期,还可以更直观、有效地找出影响混合动力汽车的主要影响因素,判断各因素的优水平,并且得到最优的一组设计参数。仿真结果表明,采用优化参数的客车的燃油经济性比优化前提高了4.6%。     

基于故障树的城市轨道交通运营可靠性分析

以预防和减少城市轨道交通运营故障的发生为目的,利用故障树的分析方法,建立了城市轨道交通运营故障树模型,对导致城市轨道交通运营失效的故障进行了定性以及定量分析。定性分析获得了导致城市轨道交通运营失效的所有故障组合,定量分析获得了导致城市轨道交通运营失效的主要故障类型,利用定性定量分析得到的结果,提出了提高城市轨道交通运营可靠性的相关建议,为运营故障的检测以及维修提供方法和依据。     

MCFC GENERATING SYSTEM BY MEANS OF COAL IN CHINA

IntroductionTo generate electricity from the fuel cell is bymeans of utilizing the electrochemistry reaction ofthe combustible gas ( H2 ,CH4etc.) in the fuel cellstack. The coal in solid state can't be directlyused. All the combined cycle generating systemcomposed of the coal as fuel and the fuel cell de-mands to realize the gasification of coal. This pa-per studied the possibility of utilization and devel-opment of the combined cycle generating systemthatis composed of the coal and the molt…     

Numerical simulation to reliability analysis of fault-tolerant repairable system

In the traditional method for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant system, the system structure is described by means of binary decision diagram (BDD) and Markov process, and then the reliability indexes are calculated. However, as the size of system augments, the size of state space will increase exponentially. Additionally, Markov approach requires that the failure and repair time of the components obey an exponential distribution. In this study, by combining dynamic fault tree (DFT) and numerical simulation based on the minimal sequence cut set (MSCS), a new method to evaluate reliability of fault-tolerant system with repairable components is proposed. The method presented does not depend on Markov model, so that it can effectively solve the problem of the state-space combination explosion. Moreover, it is suitable for systems whose failure and repair time obey an arbitrary distribution. Therefore, our method is more flexible than the traditional method. At last, an example is given to verify the method.     

基于交通冲突的交叉口行人过街安全性分析

借鉴交通冲突分析方法,对影响行人过街安全的交通冲突进行分析。提出基于过街交通冲突率的交叉口行人过街安全可靠度计算方法,结合实例实现交叉口行人过街安全可靠度定量分析,并提出改善措施。     

基于单调关联系统的驾驶行为可靠度计算方法

为合理评估驾驶员驾驶行为的可靠性,提出了驾驶行为可靠度计算方法,将人机系统可靠性理论与驾驶行为链相结合,构建了基于感知、判断、操作元件及模块组的驾驶行为可靠性框图,确定了单项器官元件可靠度测试与计算方法,运用单调关联系统理论给出了功能模块可靠度及驾驶行为系统可靠度的量化模型,计算了模型中各生理、心理元件概率重要度,分析了其对驾驶行为的影响度。计算结果表明:事故组与非事故组间行为可靠性存在明显差异,非事故组的可靠性整体大于事故组,但整体可靠性呈下降趋势,事故组驾驶员整体操作稳定性较差;生理因素对驾驶行为可靠度影响度前期较大后期较小,而心理因素则相反。     

物流园区内部功能区布局方法

为了防止物流园区内部功能区布局不合理而引起的物流园区服务失效,分析了物流园区外部条件和内部影响因素,建立了物流园区服务可靠性评价指标体系,提出了基于物流园区服务可靠性的内部功能区布局方法,应用模糊聚类理论和AutoMod仿真技术,对物流园区进行定性分析和定量计算,以及布局方案的静态和动态仿真分析。分析结果表明:利用布局方法可发现可能发生交通拥堵的区域,提高了仓库利用率,强化了功能区之间的协作,且其主观因素少,可靠度高,易量化计算,可操作性强。