Reliability Modeling and Maintenance Policy Optimization for Deteriorating System Under Random Shock

Performance degradation and random shock are commonly regarded as two dependent competing risks for system failures. One method based on effective service age is proposed to jointly model the cumulative effect of random shock and system degradation, and the reliability model of degradation system under Nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) shocks is derived. Under the assumption that preventive maintenance (PM) is imperfective and the corrective maintenance (CM) is minimal repair, one maintenance policy which combines PM and CM is presented. Moreover, the two decision variables, PM interval and the number of PMs before replacement, are determined by a multi-objective maintenance optimization method which simultaneously maximizes the system availability and minimizes the system long-run expect cost rate. Finally, the performance of the proposed maintenance optimization policy is demonstrated via a numerical example.     

浅谈养护管理决策

对公路养护管理决策分析的经济性进行论述,同时指出并护队做为养护工作的基层单元,对决策的反馈拄制起着至关重要的作用,对他们要于以足够的重视。     

Modeling on spare parts inventory control under condition based maintenance strategy

In order to optimize the spare parts inventory, we present a decision-making model under condition based maintenance policy for a single equipment system subjected to continuous and random deterioration. Firstly, a probability model of the spare parts support is established, according to the requirement of a predetermined probability of stockout. It can determine the optimal spare parts stock level. Secondly, the spare parts ordering decision is made according to the equipment deterioration level, and it can optimize the spare parts ordering. The objectives of this model are to minimize the spare parts inventory, and the expected total operating cost. Thirdly, a numerical example is given to illustrate this model. The results prove that the optimal preventive maintenance threshold obtained from the proposed model can satisfy the spare parts support requirements.     

Reliability analysis of multi-state repairable system with dynamic transition probabilities

Inadequate maintenance decisions lead to incremental overall costs. In order to minimize costs in maintenance of the multi-state repairable system, we model a preventive maintenance (PM) scheme of the multistate repairable system using non-Markov process. The periodically decreasing reliability model of the non-Markov dynamic system with dynamic transition probabilities is established to satisfy the probability change. The diesel engine system is taken as an example to illustrate the model. The reliability of the diesel engine is analyzed and its PM scheme is worked out. RENO software is used to simulate the diesel engine system. The maintenance cost of components and the optimal PM interval data of the system are obtained by using the minimal average cost as the objective function. The adaptability of PM is judged, and the optimal PM scheme is presented.     

用变点分析方法评价城市公共汽车预防维修效果

维修保养的效果影响车辆的运行可靠性和维修费用.基于现场数据,采用变点分析方法,分析汽车二级保养和三级保养前、后失效发生率的变化,并由此评价车辆不同级保养的效果.该方法可为企业维修质量的改进提供依据.     

铁路工务、电务、供电检测装备发展现状综述

从铁路工务、电务、供电检测装备的类型、检测对象等角度，梳理了各国检测装备的发展概况，分析了综合检测车、专业检测车、搭载式检测装置的发展历史、技术特点与应用情况，比较了国内外同类型检测装备在设计理念、功能集成、运用维护等方面的差异，分析了中国检测装备存在的不足；在此基础上，借鉴国外先进经验并结合中国实际情况，凝练了中国检测装备的发展趋势。研究结果表明：中国铁路工务、电务、供电检测技术取得了长足进步，部分领域达到或接近世界先进水平；但与实际运营需求相比还存在一定差距，主要表现在检测项目不充足，检测设备自动化和智能化水平较低，检测数据利用不充分，检测成本较高等；针对上述问题，检测装备的发展应朝着检测功能综合化、检测装备小型化与模块化、检测过程智能化与无人化的方向发展，形成可靠性高、检测项目齐全、检测数据精准的现代化检测装备体系，以期实现对铁路基础设施的状态维修和全生命周期管理。     

高铁动车组长周期高级修计划优化方法

分析了不同类型动车组高级修计划的特点及其关联因素，讨论了高级修计划编制问题的复杂性；基于滚动迭代思想提出了编制动车组长周期高级修计划的方法，通过依次求解规划期内各计划年的动车组高级修轮廓计划，编制了完整的长周期高级修计划；设计了分别表示动车组送修时间以及动车组检修状态的0-1变量，以动车组在2次高级修间隔内走行里程最大化为优化目标，以不同时间段动车组最大检修率限制、承修单位允许的接车以及最大检修能力、计划年度内在高级修上的资金限制、动车组每月高级修允许送修数量、动车组日均控制里程、列车运行图里程等实际要求为约束条件，构建了动车组高级修计划优化的线性0-1整数规划模型；以配属中国铁路北京局集团有限公司的279列动车组历史走行数据以及相关参数为基础，通过Python编程并调用商业求解器对模型进行精确求解，首次实现了对该局所有动车组长周期高级修计划的优化编制。计算结果表明:优化后动车组长周期高级修计划较人工方案减少了19次高级修，节约资金消耗1.505亿元，延长规划期内动车组年均运用时间21 d，增加动车组年均走行里程46 080.21 km；同时避免了人工方案中动车组检修率超标及检修能力超出限制的情况，提高了动车组的运用效率以及计划编制的科学性。      

BIM技术在轨道车辆运维方面研究综述

基于国内外相关研究,梳理了近年来BIM技术在轨道车辆运维领域的研究现状,总结归纳了该领域的理论、技术及应用研究成果。研究结果表明:BIM技术在轨道车辆运维的应用研究框架包括理论、技术和应用3个层次;理论研究集中在车辆建模、数据库建立和运营、维护方面;技术研究集中在三维CAD、平台建设、数字化管理和车辆部件监测等领域;应用研究主要体现在列车的日常运营、维护和价值方面;由于相关研究起步较晚,已有成果还存在一些不足;在理论方面,轨道车辆的建模和数据库建立精细化程度不高,运维全生命周期整体性不足;在技术方面,模型共享、软件协同、信息管理及车辆监测等方面需进一步研究与完善;在应用方面,轨道车辆运维的可视化程度、成本管理及软件开发研究需要更加具体和专业化,细化到各个层面;未来的研究应加强BIM多专业之间的协同设计及数据的规范化,实现与新信息技术的融合,构建智能的综合性管理平台,实现BIM软件更深度的二次开发;将理论、技术与应用结合起来,构建完整的轨道车辆BIM运维体系,完善基于BIM的可视化管理系统,加强对轨道车辆运维中所有服务对象、数据、业务功能一体化管理,提高轨道车辆运维的效率,为轨道车辆运维提供研究基础和理论依据,确保轨道车辆的安全运行。      

南京长江隧道泥水盾构的工作特点及其维护保养策略分析

南京长江隧道首次使用两台德国海瑞克泥水盾构机,与硬岩掘进机相比,盾构机工作环境、作业程序、故障类型等均有其自身特点,例如环境条件优良、整体振感微弱、管线众多,液压系统的工作时间长、污染控制好,输送管壁磨损明显、光谱磨粒浓度整体水平低、盾构机连续推进没有大块保养时段等。针对此情况,借鉴国内外先进维保和监测技术,结合自身经验和优势,提出并优化视情维修保养规程,保证了工程高效、顺利完工。     

解决城市道路维护资金不足问题的探讨

通过对哈尔滨市现行城市道路管理体制现状的介绍,对城市道路养护资金来源进行了分析,并提出了解决城市道路维护资金不足的措施。     

Optimal Research on Equipment Maintenance Unequal Time-Interval Based on Simulation

The paper deals with systems suffered from gradual deterioration. To avoid functional failures and disastrous consequences, such systems should be monitored and preventively maintained. And to promote the maintenance effectiveness, an unequal time-interval maintenance policy was brought forward to substitute fixedinterval preventive maintenance strategy. At the same time, preventive and corrective maintenance actions are both assumed to be imperfect, and their impact on the system is expressed by the increment of failure rate. The case study shown that the unequal time-interval maintenance policy proposed in the paper is of help to promote the availability of the system.     

Modelling upgrading maintenance policy in the one-dimensional renewing warranty period

In the one-dimensional renewing warranty period, the quality of the spares for product is likely to be improved during the warranty period. Therefore, upgrading maintenance becomes more and more common. Then the manufacturers (customers) may have to decide whether or not to provide (buy) the warranty considering upgrading maintenance. This paper presents a mathematical model considering upgrading maintenance for products with multiple failure modes. Upgrading maintenance is taken into account with the assumption that the warranted item is upgraded one time during the warranty cycle. The upgrading maintenance is carried out, when the corrective maintenance is taken place. After upgrading maintenance, the high-quality spares are used to replace the failed item. In the numerical example, the results of the models are calculated. Monte Carlo simulation results are compared with the analytical results to demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed models considering upgrading maintenance.     

民用航空发动机在翼时间控制方法

为了通过视情维修策略控制民航发动机在翼时间,分析了发动机维修与在翼时间的特点,建立了反映在翼时间与状态监测变量和故障强度之间关系的比例强度模型,确立了性能衰退下的在翼时间控制限与单位时间总成本期望值最小时的最优预防性维修间隔,并进行了CF6-80C2A5型发动机运营数据的实例验证。结果表明:故障强度小,则在翼时间控制限低;预防性维修与事后维修成本率会影响最优预防性维修间隔;完备的发动机拆换与在翼历史记录、维修成本、适航与制造商要求、寿命件限制等数据是提高在翼时间控制准确性的关键。     

民航发动机车间维修能力近似平均值分析方法

为了评估民航发动机维修车间在当前维修能力下可保持的机队规模,提出了车间维修能力近似平均值分析方法。采用扩展随机Petri网建立了发动机在维修车间的转移模型,利用单维修等级下系统的性能指标对多维修等级性能指标进行了修正,采用平方变差系数方法实现服务时间从指数分布向正态分布的逼近,并评价了多等级与服务时间为正态分布的车间维修能力,分析了近似平均分析法与仿真方法的计算结果。比较结果表明:各维修中心等待队长最大相对误差为9.14%,此时零件检查、手工修理及机械加工为限制维修车间能力的瓶颈,因此,近似平均值分析方法是有效的。     

Proactive Approach for Production and Condition-Based Maintenance Integration Problem in a Deteriorating System

A proactive approach is constructed to cope with the integrated problem of batch production and maintenance in a deteriorating system. The condition of the system is modeled by a proportional hazards model(PHM) which considers both system deterioration state and usage. The deterioration state of system is uncertain and is only observed between batches. An integration model for optimizing production plan and conditionbased maintenance(CBM) policy is proposed, in which the maintenance threshold and production quantity are proactively decided simultaneously. To obtain a robust solution with minimal cost over the planning horizon, a simulation-based iterative algorithm is developed to solve the complicated non-linear model. Numerical results show that the performance of the developed approach is satisfactory under uncertainty.     

基于SDSS的高速公路养护管理系统结构

现有高速公路养护管理系统仅仅是简单的决策支持系统,以模型来驱动决策,决策的智能化程度不高,因此为了提高公路养护决策的能力和智能化水平,提出了基于SDSS的高速公路养护管理系统,结合智能决策支持系统和商业智能技术,在决策过程中以模型、知识、数据共同驱动决策。综合决策支持系统由数据仓库、联机分析处理、数据挖掘、模型库、知识库和数据库组成,其中数据仓库能够实现对决策主题数据的存储和综合;联机分析处理可以实现多维数据分析;数据挖掘可以挖掘数据库和数据仓库中的知识;模型库可以实现多个广义模型的组合辅助决策;数据库可以为辅助决策提供数据;专家系统可以利用知识推理进行定性分析。它们有机集成的综合决策支持系统将相互补充和依赖,能发挥各自的辅助决策优势,实现更有效的辅助决策。     

汽车最优维护周期的确定与优化研究

笔者以计划预防为方针 ,根据预定的置信度 ,通过建立和求解数学模型 ,确定汽车维护周期及置信区间 ,并将优化概念应用于维护周期的确定及分析研究 .通过技术经济法、回归 -概率法和经济 -概率法 ,根据不同目标的要求进行修正 ,以适应不同情况的需要 ,从而达到汽车维护周期最优化的目的     

道路养护工程平安工地体系研究——以北京市道路养护工程为例

为规范道路养护作业安全管理工作,全面推进安全生产标准化,减少和遏制生产安全事故的发生,以北京市为试点进行道路养护工程平安工地体系建设工作.针对北京市道路养护工程的特点,以养护作业单位、监理单位、管理单位或经营单位为研究对象,通过对相关法律法规的梳理,对北京市养护工程从业单位职责进行明确定位划分,提出养护安全技术要求,建立养护工程平安工地标准体系.通过现场座谈、实地调查的方法,根据养护作业的不同类型和特征,制定与之相适应的安全防护等级,进一步提出安全防护措施,最终通过考核评价的方式进行安全管理,为养护从业单位进行安全管理提供一套完整的管理体系,为养护工程管理机构监管提供依据.     

Opportunistic Replacement Optimization for Multi-Component System Based on Programming Theory

It is widely accepted that too excessive or too insufficient maintenance actions on a system are consumptive or potentially risky. This paper focuses on the optimization of opportunistic replacement for a multicomponent system in which no failure or suspension histories can be used for prediction of all the critical components in the system. Firstly, the remaining useful life (RUL) is predicted using the real-time sensor data, which is based on an “individual-based lifetime inference” method. Then a failure risk estimation method is introduced, which is based on the degradation extent and service time of components. Subsequently, the possible replacement combinations of components are compared, which is based on a proposed current-term cost rate. Finally, the best replacement scheduling is selected. The proposed framework is validated by the simulation dataset and PHM-2012 competition bearing dataset. Group replacement and individual replacement are conducted for comparison, and sensitivity analysis is discussed.     

道路养护安全研究

我国的道路养护水平和发达国家有明显的差距,道路养护工人的安全问题更是不容乐观。通过对道路养护工作中存在的安全要素进行分析,揭示了道路养护工人面临着越来越大的安全压力。然后依据H.Wheinrich事故发生理论,构建了道路养护安全防护系统四个先后层次相连子系统,详细介绍了子系统相关的具体防护措施。最后将层次分析法运用于道路养护安全系统的综合评价,建立了道路养护安全系统的综合评价层次结构。