港口集装箱吞吐量的灰色神经网络预测模型研究

为了降低港口集装箱吞吐量的预测误差,提高预测精度,文章通过分析传统的灰色预测模型和 BP 神经网络预测模型的优缺点,构建了灰色神经网络港口集装箱吞吐量预测模型,该模型充分发挥了灰色模型所需初始数据少和 BP 神经网络非线性拟合能力强的特点。以实际数值作为初始数据,各种灰色模型的预测值为神经网络的输入值,神经网络的输出值为组合预测结果。通过实例分析,结果表明：灰色神经网络预测模型提高了预测精度,预测结果比较理想,优于单一预测模型,因此,该模型用于港口集装箱吞吐量预测是可行的、有效的。     

基于组合模型的天津港吞吐量预测

根据天津港货物吞吐量的历史数据,分别建立有关该港吞吐量的回归预测模型、Logistic生长曲线模型以及组合模型。通过比较3种模型的平均相对误差,可以证明组合模型的平均相对误差最小。运用组合模型预测港口吞吐量可以降低误差,提高预测精度。     

基于聚类的港口吞吐量预测方法及其适用性分析

在统计分析历史数据的基础上,选取港口吞吐量、GDP值等指标,采用SPSS统计分析软件中的层次聚类分析法,将我国具有代表性的港口按照吞吐量增长规律分成平稳增长型、加速增长型和波动增长型3类。然后选择时间序列法、回归分析法、灰色模型理论和神经网络模型法,对不同类型的港口吞吐量预测的适用性进行了理论分析。最后以上海港和镇江港为实例进行计算,并对不同预测方法的适用性进行了验证。     

巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港集装箱吞吐量预测

为评估新建巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的建设规模,构建由回归分析模型、腹地集装箱运输需求重力模型、多目标港口模糊评价模型和基于Logit模型的港口选择模型4部分组成的综合预测方法。对巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的腹地集装箱运输需求进行预测;并对腹地省份在不同港口的集装箱运量进行测算,从而科学合理地预测科考瑞港的集装箱吞吐量,为实施项目的必要性提供支持。该预测方法使用较少的基础数据即可比较科学客观地预测新建港口的集装箱吞吐量,能够较好地解决在不发达国家或地区统计资料缺失、安全局势不稳定导致腹地调研困难等情况下的吞吐量预测问题,为海外港口的建设、咨询项目提供帮助。     

基于时间序列BP神经网络的集装箱吞吐量动态预测

集装箱吞吐量预测是港口发展规划制定的依据。在MATLAB环境下，把时间序列BP神经网络应用于港口集装箱吞吐量的预测，采用逐步递归的方法进行，同时注意尽量减少训练样本的浪费（只用1个检验样本）和充分挖掘BP神经网络适合短期预测的潜力。无论是从拟合情况，还是预测值的检验和港口发展规划的实际情况来看，都有着很高的精度．可以作为集装箱吞吐量预测的一种行之有效的方法。     

基于灰色关联分析和综合评价法的港口与产业发展关系研究*

日本濑户内海地区港口和城市发展对日本经济发展作用巨大,是港城协调发展的典型,值得关注和研究。为探究该地区港口与产业发展间的关系,以港口吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量表示地区港口发展状况,以从业人数和产业总产值表示地区产业发展状况,首先基于灰色关联分析法对各县港口与产业发展间的关系进行比较分析,总结归纳发展对策,为辽宁沿海经济带的港口与产业发展提供借鉴。然后,建立兼顾均衡性与功能性的综合评价模型,确定影响濑户内海地区产业发展水平的主要港口指标为港口吞吐量。最后,将其与其它评价模型进行比较,结果表明构建的综合评价模型与现实更吻合,能够更准确地对整个濑户内海地区的港口与产业发展关系进行综合评价研究。     

OD流仿真模型在珠三角集装箱港口群布局规划中的应用研究

构建由珠三角集装箱运输OD流运输网络、港口模糊综合评价模型、中转港选择的Logit模型3大部分构成的OD流仿真模型。在2020年珠三角集装箱生成量预测基础上,应用该模型对区域内集装箱运输需求在各OD流路径中的运输量进行仿真模拟测算,科学合理地预测该年度珠三角各港的集装箱吞吐量,为2020年度的珠三角集装箱港口群的合理布局规划提供指引。     

Container port systems in China and the USA: a comparative study

This study compares the evolution of container port systems in China and the USA in terms of port throughput, number of container ports and the concentration level in the container port system, based on the time-series data on these three features over the period 1979–2009 for China and 1970–2009 for the USA. The results show that the densities of container ports in the two countries are similar, and their evolutionary processes are alike, which has led to a comparable market structure in the port industries of the two countries. In addition, the disparities between container ports closely represent the unevenness in the regional economic development. We further compare the port management regimes of the two countries in terms of the administrative processes for port development and expansion, the ownership structure and the providers of port functions, which offer some explanation on the dynamics of port evolution in the two countries. In conclusion, it can be seen that the evolution of the container port system and the management regime in the USA can be a de facto reference for the future development of the Chinese container port system.     

大型集装箱港口近港集疏运道路服务水平提升

公路集疏运是港口集疏运的主要方式之一。针对大型集装箱港口吞吐量较大造成的近港主要集疏运道路拥堵问题,进行现状情况的分析研究,总结近港道路的交通特征和拥堵原因。在此基础上,采用节流和开源的方法,从降低小时流量和提高通行能力的角度出发,提出设置港外堆场的方式平衡公路流量和引入无人驾驶降低平均车头时距两个方面的措施。并以上海洋山深水港区为例,应用本文提出的改善措施,详述港外中转堆场规模、选址和在无人集卡运输要求下集疏运道路断面调整方案,计算得出"改善后集疏运道路服务水平显著提升"的结果,印证了本文提出措施的可行性,为港口集疏运规划决策提供思路。     

Marketing management at the world's major ports

Recent technological developments in maritime transport, particularly in container shipping and larger vessels, are having major repercussions at ports the world over. The latest wave of innovations has increased the level of competition in maritime transport, in particular in port activities. Shippers have many more alternatives available, something that tends to increase the hinterland of each port, precisely by reducing captive hinterlands. Ports are now generally moving towards formulas in which private initiative has a bigger role to play. Increases in competition combined with growth in private initiatives highlight the usefulness of marketing tools in two ways. Externally, because they help to achieve throughputs from remote points of origin and destination, and internally, by aiding the proper coordination of business and organizational activity at a commercial port. The present paper is a transversal study of the current situation of marketing and quality tools at major ports, including the opinions of a range of port commercial and marketing managers. We have also tried to describe the differentiated groups to be found at ports, as a useful methodology for identifying the nearest competition or ports with similar characteristics.     

Marketing management at the world's major ports

Recent technological developments in maritime transport, particularly in container shipping and larger vessels, are having major repercussions at ports the world over. The latest wave of innovations has increased the level of competition in maritime transport, in particular in port activities. Shippers have many more alternatives available, something that tends to increase the hinterland of each port, precisely by reducing captive hinterlands. Ports are now generally moving towards formulas in which private initiative has a bigger role to play. Increases in competition combined with growth in private initiatives highlight the usefulness of marketing tools in two ways. Externally, because they help to achieve throughputs from remote points of origin and destination, and internally, by aiding the proper coordination of business and organizational activity at a commercial port. The present paper is a transversal study of the current situation of marketing and quality tools at major ports, including the opinions of a range of port commercial and marketing managers. We have also tried to describe the differentiated groups to be found at ports, as a useful methodology for identifying the nearest competition or ports with similar characteristics.     

港口货物吞吐量预测方法探讨

对常用的港口货物吞吐量预测方法进行了系统分析,并以重庆涪陵港为例,综合运用回归分析法、平均增长率法、弹性系数法、产销平衡法等定量预测方法和专家预测法等定性预测方法进行吞吐量预测,经与相关资料比较,表明其预测结果是合理的,同时本文采用的预测方法也可为其它港口的货物吞吐量预测提供参考。     

The size effect of a port on the container handling efficiency level and market share in internation transshipment flow

This study examines the relationship between the size of a port, its efficiency increase and the performance growth in the transshipment market. The hypothesis tested is that the bigger size of a port would increase the market share of the port in container transshipment; only when the size effect guarantees better ‘relative’ container handling efficiency in competing port system where the port belongs. To verify the hypothesis, this study carries out two analyses. First, the overall efficiency change of major Asian ports is examined through stochastic frontier analysis (SFA)—this produces the relative efficiency indices of the ports. Second, the relationship between efficiency indices and container transshipment volumes is studied through panel data analysis. From these analyses, it is observed that larger Asian ports show better cargo handling efficiency in relative terms; they also record bigger market share in container transshipment, while the size effect of the ports starts to play a factor when the annual container throughput reaches 5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).     

基于模拟减少集装箱船待港时间的实用方法(英文)

The main challenge for container ports is the planning required for berthing container ships while docked in port.Growth of containerization is creating problems for ports and container terminals as they reach their capacity limits of various resources which increasingly leads to traffic and port congestion.Good planning and management of container terminal operations reduces waiting time for liner ships.Reducing the waiting time improves the terminal’s productivity and decreases the port difficulties.Two important keys to reducing waiting time with berth allocation are determining suitable access channel depths and increasing the number of berths which in this paper are studied and analyzed as practical solutions.Simulation based analysis is the only way to understand how various resources interact with each other and how they are affected in the berthing time of ships.We used the Enterprise Dynamics software to produce simulation models due to the complexity and nature of the problems.We further present case study for berth allocation simulation of the biggest container terminal in Iran and the optimum access channel depth and the number of berths are obtained from simulation results.The results show a significant reduction in the waiting time for container ships and can be useful for major functions in operations and development of container ship terminals.     

港口吞吐量预测的混合算法实证研究

提出一种新的港口吞吐量预测混合算法，基于天津港的历史数据进行了实证研究。首先采用主成分分析和相关分析从影响港口吞吐量的社会经济指标中甄别出显著影响因子，其次采用基于时间序列分析的三次指数平滑法获得其预估值，最后采用基于因果分析的遗传算法优化的神经网络法预测港口吞吐量。结果表明，影响因子预估中基准年的选择对预测结果影响很大，中长期预测应采用多个连续基准年的平均预估值，以平滑影响因子增长率的波动。     

Multicommodity network flow model for Asia's container ports

This paper seeks to develop a multi-commodity network model to analyse the flow of containers within the Asia Pacific context. The model is used to evaluate the impact of container throughput in Asia's port by varying terminal handling charges and turnaround time. The three main regions analysed are north-east Asia, east Asia (Chinese port region) and south east Asia. Using the model, it could be shown that Busan port, which is an important transhipment hub in north-east Asia, could boost the container activities in the north-eastern part of China by improving its service quality. It is also found that the efficiency of the land link between Hong Kong and mainland China plays a crucial role for the future of Hong Kong port. While Singapore port maintains its position as a transhipment hub in south-east Asia, there would be expected competition from neighbouring low costs ports.     

Book reviews

We show in this paper that the throughput data for the top 300 container ports reported each year by the various authorities follows a simple truncated lognormal distribution. This surprising phenomenon repeats itself every year from 1982 to 2006, despite many tumultuous changes in the container shipping world. The empirical data suggests that Gibrat's Law of proportionate growth indeed holds for the world container throughput data. Unfortunately, the classical stochastic growth model and other variants often used to explain the origin of this law appears to be too simplistic for the container terminal industry. We use instead the perspective that the container terminal throughput data are essentially an aggregate measure of the number of visitations as each container circulates on the world shipping network, and use this to propose a Markov chain based container circulation model to explain the origin of this phenomenon. Simulation results show that our network-based model is able to replicate the behavior of the empirical data to a reasonable degree of accuracy, and does not contradict the law of proportionate growth. More importantly, this model is able to replicate the relationship between the degree of connectivity of a port (i.e. number of linkages with other ports) and its association with the container throughput data, an empirical regularity which could not be explained using classical approaches.     

Multicommodity network flow model for Asia's container ports

This paper seeks to develop a multi-commodity network model to analyse the flow of containers within the Asia Pacific context. The model is used to evaluate the impact of container throughput in Asia's port by varying terminal handling charges and turnaround time. The three main regions analysed are north-east Asia, east Asia (Chinese port region) and south east Asia. Using the model, it could be shown that Busan port, which is an important transhipment hub in north-east Asia, could boost the container activities in the north-eastern part of China by improving its service quality. It is also found that the efficiency of the land link between Hong Kong and mainland China plays a crucial role for the future of Hong Kong port. While Singapore port maintains its position as a transhipment hub in south-east Asia, there would be expected competition from neighbouring low costs ports.     

组合预测模型在上海内河港口吞吐量预测中的应用

建立时间序列和二元线性回归的组合预测模型,对上海内河港口2010年、2015年和2020年的货物吞吐量水平进行了预测。研究发现,组合预测模型相比单个预测方法具有较高的精度,能够较准确地预测上海内河港口货物吞吐量。     

沿海集装箱港区港内锚地面积确定方法

设置港内锚地,是沿海集装箱港区缓解航道拥堵,提高港口服务水平的有效途径之一。为完善港内锚地面积确定方法的理论研究,基于计算机仿真技术,建立设置港内锚地的沿海集装箱港区船舶航行作业系统仿真模型,研究计算期内可能同时占用港内锚地的船舶数量及船型组合;计算不同锚泊方式下所需的港内锚地最大面积。仿真结果与分析结论为沿海集装箱港区港内锚地的规划建设及改造扩建提供参考。